【摘要】：班線運(yùn)力資源配置是政府管理部門對(duì)整個(gè)班線運(yùn)輸市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行管理、調(diào)整、監(jiān)察、規(guī)劃研究、政策制定的基點(diǎn)�，F(xiàn)有公路客運(yùn)管理體系在班線運(yùn)力規(guī)模評(píng)價(jià)、新班線運(yùn)力投放、班線運(yùn)力動(dòng)態(tài)調(diào)整等方面缺乏科學(xué)、有效、合理的依據(jù)，阻礙公路班線客運(yùn)發(fā)展，影響運(yùn)力資源的有效配置以及經(jīng)濟(jì)效益、社會(huì)效益的最大化。鑒于此，論文以公路客運(yùn)班線運(yùn)力規(guī)模為切入點(diǎn)展開探索性研究。 基于運(yùn)輸需求預(yù)測(cè)的班線運(yùn)力配置是目前的主流方法，但是由于需求的波動(dòng)性、時(shí)間不均衡性、對(duì)流性等特征導(dǎo)致在班線運(yùn)力進(jìn)行研究時(shí)存在明顯弊端。論文在研究班線客運(yùn)市場(chǎng)需求與供給內(nèi)在關(guān)系的基礎(chǔ)上，引入引力模型作為核心模型，構(gòu)建客運(yùn)班線運(yùn)力規(guī)模模型。 在陜西省客運(yùn)市場(chǎng)充分調(diào)研的基礎(chǔ)上，利用K—均值聚類分析得到基于需求特征的班線分類，即市—市班線、西安—縣班線、市—縣班線等；給定樣本班線遴選標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，獲得樣本班線標(biāo)定模型，得到各類型班線運(yùn)力生成規(guī)律。 對(duì)運(yùn)力規(guī)模模型進(jìn)行實(shí)踐應(yīng)用，得到計(jì)算運(yùn)力的合理范圍（7/8Wx，，7/6Ws）、最大合理上限（4/3W上限）和最小合理下限（3/4W下限），在此基礎(chǔ)上給定班線運(yùn)力分析評(píng)價(jià)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，并對(duì)陜西省市際班線運(yùn)力投放進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)，為后續(xù)優(yōu)化提供科學(xué)、合理的依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:The allocation of shift transportation capacity resources is the basic point for the government management departments to manage, adjust, supervise, plan and study the whole shift transportation market, and make policies. The existing highway passenger transport management system lacks scientific, effective and reasonable basis in evaluating the capacity of the shift line, putting in the capacity of the new class line, and dynamically adjusting the capacity of the shift line, which hinders the development of the passenger transport on the highway line. It affects the efficient allocation of capacity resources and the maximization of economic and social benefits. In view of this, the paper takes the capacity scale of highway passenger transport line as the starting point to carry out exploratory research. The routing capacity allocation based on transportation demand forecasting is the mainstream method at present, but due to the fluctuation of demand, time imbalance, convection and other characteristics, there are obvious drawbacks in the study of line capacity. Based on the study of the internal relationship between the demand and supply of passenger transport, the gravity model is introduced as the core model to construct the capacity scale model of passenger line. On the basis of full investigation of passenger transport market in Shaanxi Province, the classification of shift lines based on demand characteristics is obtained by using K-means clustering analysis, namely, city to city line, Xi'an to county line, city to county line, and so on, and the selection criteria of sample class line are given. The calibration model of sample shift line is obtained, and the generating law of capacity of each type of shift line is obtained. Through the practical application of the model of capacity scale, the reasonable range of calculation capacity (7 / 8 WxX / 7 / 6 Ws), the maximum reasonable upper limit (4 / 3W upper limit) and the minimum reasonable lower limit (3 / 4W lower limit) are obtained. On this basis, the criteria for analyzing and evaluating the capacity of shift lines are given. The evaluation of intercity shift line capacity in Shaanxi Province provides a scientific and reasonable basis for further optimization.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長(zhǎng)安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U492.4

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