【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,城市機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)保有量持續(xù)增加,一方面拉動(dòng)了內(nèi)需,加快了城市化與機(jī)動(dòng)化進(jìn)程；另一方面也給有限的城市道路帶來(lái)了日益嚴(yán)重的交通負(fù)擔(dān),進(jìn)而制約了城市經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展和人們生活水平的進(jìn)一步提高。如何很好地深入揭示城市道路與機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)的互演化機(jī)理,從而使得整個(gè)城市交通系統(tǒng)既能滿足人們的出行需求,也能盡可能的減少政府的經(jīng)濟(jì)投資以及土地資源的浪費(fèi)成為了現(xiàn)在城市交通研究領(lǐng)域中的熱點(diǎn)。 對(duì)城市機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)保有量和城市道路關(guān)系的研究歷來(lái)是交通領(lǐng)域研究的熱點(diǎn),很多學(xué)者從不同角度研究了二者之間的關(guān)系,取得了一些有意義的成果。但是,這些研究大部分是基于城市道路和機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)現(xiàn)狀,缺乏從互演化的角度刻畫(huà)二者之間的內(nèi)在相互關(guān)系。 鑒于此,本論文在已有研究基礎(chǔ)上,基于Logistic方程,建立了城市道路與機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)的互演化模型,并詳細(xì)分析了二者之間的演化關(guān)系,具體的學(xué)術(shù)貢獻(xiàn)如下。 從不同角度建立了無(wú)約束條件下的城市道路與機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)的互演化模型、基于交通承載力的城市道路與機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)的互演化模型以及基于不同交通方式的城市道路與機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)的互演化模型,并運(yùn)用非線性方程穩(wěn)定性原理和混沌理論對(duì)模型進(jìn)行了穩(wěn)定性分析。在MATLAB7.1環(huán)境下模擬了城市道路與交通的互演化過(guò)程,分析了演化過(guò)程中二者相互影響、相互作用的反饋關(guān)系。最后,以北京、東京、上海、廣州、天津、南京等五個(gè)國(guó)際性大都市為實(shí)例,驗(yàn)證了本論文所建立的互演化模型。實(shí)證分析結(jié)果表明,本論文所提出的模型可以較好的模擬城市道路與機(jī)動(dòng)車(chē)之間的演化規(guī)律。研究結(jié)論將為城市規(guī)劃或者城市系統(tǒng)改造提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, the number of urban motor vehicles has been increasing continuously. On the one hand, it has stimulated domestic demand, accelerated the process of urbanization and motorization; on the other hand, it has also brought an increasingly serious traffic burden to the limited urban roads. Then it restricts the development of urban economy and the further improvement of people's living standard. How to reveal the mechanism of mutual evolution between urban roads and motor vehicles, so that the whole urban transportation system can not only meet the travel needs of people, Also can reduce the government's economic investment and waste of land resources as far as possible has become a hot spot in the field of urban transport research. The research on the relationship between urban motor vehicle ownership and urban road has always been a hot topic in the field of transportation. Many scholars have studied the relationship between the two from different angles and achieved some meaningful results. However, most of these studies are based on the current situation of urban roads and motor vehicles, and lack of mutual evolution to describe the internal relationship between the two. In view of this, based on the existing research and Logistic equation, this paper establishes a mutual evolution model of urban roads and motor vehicles, and analyzes the evolutionary relationship between them in detail. The specific academic contributions are as follows. The mutual evolution model of urban roads and motor vehicles under unconstrained conditions is established from different angles. The mutual evolution model of urban roads and motor vehicles based on traffic carrying capacity, and the mutual evolution model of urban roads and motor vehicles based on different traffic modes. The stability of the model is analyzed by using the stability principle of nonlinear equations and chaos theory. The mutual evolution of urban road and traffic is simulated in MATLAB7.1 environment, and the feedback relationship between them is analyzed. Finally, taking Beijing, Tokyo, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin and Nanjing as examples, the mutual evolution model established in this paper is verified. The empirical results show that the model proposed in this paper can well simulate the evolution between urban roads and motor vehicles. The conclusions will provide scientific basis for urban planning or urban system reconstruction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U491.2

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