城市客運交通結構與能耗互動關系研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-12 15:37
【摘要】：近年來,隨著人民生活水平的提高,居民私人汽車擁有量不斷增加,從而導致城市小汽車出行比例居高不下,客運交通結構不斷發(fā)生變化,城市客運交通能耗量逐年增加。面對現(xiàn)今不斷緊張的能源環(huán)境,研究城市客運交通結構與能耗之間的關系,對優(yōu)化城市客運交通結構,減少城市客運交通能耗量具有重要意義。本文利用指標影響因素分析方法,對城市客運交通結構與能耗之間的互動關系進行了以下幾個方面的研究。 首先,論文分析了城市客運交通能耗的主要影響因素為城市客運周轉量、各種交通方式的單位能耗以及城市客運交通結構,得到了城市客運交通能耗的測算模型。對比分析了回歸分析法、Laspeyres完全分解法、LMDI分解法和指標影響因素分析法等4種比較常用的能耗影響因素分析方法,根據(jù)客運交通能耗的計算公式,選擇其中的指標影響因素分析法分析城市客運交通結構與能耗之間的關系,并依此給出了客運交通結構對能耗的影響計算方法。 其次,通過對客運交通結構的分析,確定城市客運交通結構的情景設計方法。并以某市為例,分析其2006～2012年客運交通結構的現(xiàn)狀以及不同交通方式的發(fā)展趨勢,在假設居民的出行特性保持不變的情況下,確定2020年客運交通結構的基準情景,在基準情景的基礎上,利用單位能耗指標對各種交通方式的周轉量增長速度進行調(diào)整,得到2020年客運交通結構的節(jié)能情景。 進而,對比分析不同情景下某市交通結構的變化情況,分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：在利用單位能耗指標對各種交通方式周轉量的增長速度進行調(diào)整時,出行比例變化最大的交通方式為城市軌道交通和小汽車；且在節(jié)能情景下,降低汽車類(小汽車、出租車、地面公交)交通方式的單位能耗,將會提高汽車類(小汽車、出租車、地面公交)交通方式的周轉量增長速度,其中尤以地面公交的增長速度最為明顯。 最后,根據(jù)客運交通結構對能耗的影響計算方法,得到不同情景下城市客運交通結構的變化對能耗的影響。根據(jù)計算結果發(fā)現(xiàn)：優(yōu)化城市客運交通結構,降低小汽車的出行比例,同時提高城市軌道交通的出行比例,可以大幅度地降低城市客運交通能耗量；在利用單位能耗指標對各種交通方式的周轉量增長速度進行調(diào)整時,隨著汽車類交通方式單位能耗的降低,不同交通方式之間的能耗差異不斷減小,城市客運交通結構對能耗的影響值逐漸降低。依此計算結果,為城市客運交通結構的節(jié)能發(fā)展提出幾點策略。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the improvement of people's living standard, the private car ownership of the residents is increasing, which leads to the high proportion of urban car travel, the continuous changes in the structure of passenger transport, and the increase of energy consumption of urban passenger transport year by year. In the face of the current energy environment, it is of great significance to study the relationship between urban passenger transport structure and energy consumption in order to optimize the urban passenger transport structure and reduce the energy consumption of urban passenger traffic. In this paper, the interactive relationship between urban passenger transport structure and energy consumption is studied in the following aspects by using the method of index influencing factor analysis. Firstly, the paper analyzes the main influencing factors of the energy consumption of urban passenger transport, such as the turnover of urban passenger transport, the unit energy consumption of various traffic modes and the structure of urban passenger transport, and obtains the calculation model of the energy consumption of urban passenger transport. This paper compares and analyzes four commonly used energy consumption factor analysis methods, such as Laspeyres complete decomposition method, LMDI decomposition method and index influencing factor analysis method, according to the calculation formula of passenger traffic energy consumption. The relationship between the structure of urban passenger traffic and energy consumption is analyzed by using the analysis method of influencing factors, and the calculation method of the influence of passenger traffic structure on energy consumption is given. Secondly, through the analysis of passenger traffic structure, the scene design method of urban passenger traffic structure is determined. Taking a certain city as an example, this paper analyzes the present situation of passenger traffic structure in 2006 ~ 2012 and the development trend of different traffic modes. Under the assumption that the travel characteristics of residents remain unchanged, the benchmark scenario of passenger traffic structure in 2020 is determined. On the basis of the benchmark scenario, the energy saving scenario of passenger transport structure in 2020 is obtained by adjusting the turnover growth rate of various traffic modes by using the unit energy consumption index. Then, by comparing and analyzing the changes of traffic structure in a certain city under different scenarios, it is found that when using the energy consumption per unit index to adjust the growth rate of the turnover of various traffic modes, The most varied modes of transportation are urban rail transit and car, and in the energy-saving scenario, reducing the unit energy consumption of automobile (car, taxi, ground transit) will improve the car (car, taxi, ground public transport) transportation mode. The speed of turnover of taxi (ground bus) is the most obvious. Finally, according to the calculation method of the influence of passenger traffic structure on energy consumption, the influence of the change of urban passenger traffic structure on energy consumption under different scenarios is obtained. According to the calculation results, it is found that optimizing the structure of urban passenger transport, reducing the travel proportion of cars and increasing the travel proportion of urban rail transit can greatly reduce the energy consumption of urban passenger transport. With the decrease of unit energy consumption, the difference of energy consumption between different traffic modes is decreasing with the adjustment of the growth rate of the turnover of various traffic modes by using the unit energy consumption index. The influence of urban passenger traffic structure on energy consumption decreases gradually. According to the calculation results, several strategies are put forward for the development of energy saving of urban passenger transport structure.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U12
本文編號：2179500
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the improvement of people's living standard, the private car ownership of the residents is increasing, which leads to the high proportion of urban car travel, the continuous changes in the structure of passenger transport, and the increase of energy consumption of urban passenger transport year by year. In the face of the current energy environment, it is of great significance to study the relationship between urban passenger transport structure and energy consumption in order to optimize the urban passenger transport structure and reduce the energy consumption of urban passenger traffic. In this paper, the interactive relationship between urban passenger transport structure and energy consumption is studied in the following aspects by using the method of index influencing factor analysis. Firstly, the paper analyzes the main influencing factors of the energy consumption of urban passenger transport, such as the turnover of urban passenger transport, the unit energy consumption of various traffic modes and the structure of urban passenger transport, and obtains the calculation model of the energy consumption of urban passenger transport. This paper compares and analyzes four commonly used energy consumption factor analysis methods, such as Laspeyres complete decomposition method, LMDI decomposition method and index influencing factor analysis method, according to the calculation formula of passenger traffic energy consumption. The relationship between the structure of urban passenger traffic and energy consumption is analyzed by using the analysis method of influencing factors, and the calculation method of the influence of passenger traffic structure on energy consumption is given. Secondly, through the analysis of passenger traffic structure, the scene design method of urban passenger traffic structure is determined. Taking a certain city as an example, this paper analyzes the present situation of passenger traffic structure in 2006 ~ 2012 and the development trend of different traffic modes. Under the assumption that the travel characteristics of residents remain unchanged, the benchmark scenario of passenger traffic structure in 2020 is determined. On the basis of the benchmark scenario, the energy saving scenario of passenger transport structure in 2020 is obtained by adjusting the turnover growth rate of various traffic modes by using the unit energy consumption index. Then, by comparing and analyzing the changes of traffic structure in a certain city under different scenarios, it is found that when using the energy consumption per unit index to adjust the growth rate of the turnover of various traffic modes, The most varied modes of transportation are urban rail transit and car, and in the energy-saving scenario, reducing the unit energy consumption of automobile (car, taxi, ground transit) will improve the car (car, taxi, ground public transport) transportation mode. The speed of turnover of taxi (ground bus) is the most obvious. Finally, according to the calculation method of the influence of passenger traffic structure on energy consumption, the influence of the change of urban passenger traffic structure on energy consumption under different scenarios is obtained. According to the calculation results, it is found that optimizing the structure of urban passenger transport, reducing the travel proportion of cars and increasing the travel proportion of urban rail transit can greatly reduce the energy consumption of urban passenger transport. With the decrease of unit energy consumption, the difference of energy consumption between different traffic modes is decreasing with the adjustment of the growth rate of the turnover of various traffic modes by using the unit energy consumption index. The influence of urban passenger traffic structure on energy consumption decreases gradually. According to the calculation results, several strategies are put forward for the development of energy saving of urban passenger transport structure.
【學位授予單位】：北京交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U12
【參考文獻】
相關期刊論文 前1條
1 任保寬;任秀蘋;李曉霞;;國內(nèi)新能源公交車發(fā)展狀況及問題探析[J];交通節(jié)能與環(huán)保;2013年04期
，本文編號：2179500
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