【摘要】：隨著人們生活水平的提高,我國城市居民人均汽車占有率逐年上升,很多地區(qū)已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重的堵車、塞車等現(xiàn)象。同時,由于車輛的急劇增多,我國每年發(fā)生的交通事故也越來越多,給人們的安全、國家經(jīng)濟(jì)等造成了嚴(yán)重的危害。因此,對道路交通事故進(jìn)行有效、及時地控制,是我國面臨的一項重大問題,具有現(xiàn)實的研究意義。道路交通系統(tǒng)是典型的復(fù)雜系統(tǒng),交通事故的發(fā)生會激發(fā)系統(tǒng)的脆性,進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致交通系統(tǒng)的崩潰。隨著道路交通系統(tǒng)規(guī)模的不斷擴(kuò)大,交通系統(tǒng)的脆性問題也隨之變得復(fù)雜。一旦交通系統(tǒng)的脆性被激發(fā),整個系統(tǒng)就面臨著崩潰。因此分析脆性激發(fā)的原因、運行機(jī)制以及對脆性源的控制等問題,就成了亟待解決的大事。在本論文中,通過介紹復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展情況說明了研究其脆性的重要意義。然后給出了復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)脆性的定義、特點以及圖形描述,在深入研究集對分析和熵理論的基礎(chǔ)上,給出了事故脆性風(fēng)險熵的基本概念。其次,在集對分析理論的基礎(chǔ)上,對交通系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行了脆性源等級的判別。首先建立某一地區(qū)道路交通系統(tǒng)的脆性模型,模型建立的主要思想就是給出路口任一時刻車輛的流入、流出量,利用此時刻車輛的數(shù)量來反映該路段的擁擠程度,也即路口的崩潰程度。并給出了具體的例子,來說明脆性源等級判別的方法。對交通系統(tǒng)的各因素進(jìn)行脆性等級判別后,主要是對交通事故因素進(jìn)行了細(xì)致的研究。將復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)脆性理論應(yīng)用于交通事故系統(tǒng)的事故熵分析,通過對引起道路交通事故的因素進(jìn)行分析,以2006年的具體交通事故統(tǒng)計為例,找到了導(dǎo)致交通系統(tǒng)脆性發(fā)生的脆性因素。通過減小事故熵的方法,對脆性源進(jìn)行了有效地控制,并找到了相應(yīng)的控制路徑。最后,在原有后果熵函數(shù)的基礎(chǔ)上,通過引入層次分析法重新完善了權(quán)重的計算,使得后果熵函數(shù)的分析方法更加合理。并將其應(yīng)用于道路交通事故系統(tǒng),進(jìn)行了數(shù)值仿真實驗,對實驗結(jié)果進(jìn)行了分析。
[Abstract]:With the improvement of people's living standard, the per capita car occupation rate of urban residents in China has been increasing year by year. There have been serious traffic jams and traffic jams in many areas. At the same time, with the rapid increase of vehicles, more and more traffic accidents occur every year in our country, which has caused serious harm to people's safety and national economy. Therefore, effective and timely control of road traffic accidents is an important problem in China, which has practical significance. Road traffic system is a typical complex system. The occurrence of traffic accident will stimulate the brittleness of the system and lead to the collapse of the traffic system. With the increasing scale of road traffic system, the brittleness of traffic system becomes more and more complicated. Once the brittleness of the traffic system is activated, the whole system faces collapse. Therefore, it is urgent to analyze the cause of brittleness excitation, operation mechanism and control of brittleness source. In this paper, the importance of studying the brittleness of complex systems is explained by introducing the development of complex systems. Then, the definition, characteristics and graphic description of brittleness of complex systems are given. The basic concept of risk entropy of accident brittleness is given on the basis of studying set pair analysis and entropy theory. Secondly, based on the theory of set pair analysis, the class of brittle source of traffic system is determined. First of all, the brittle model of road traffic system in a certain area is established. The main idea of the model is to give the inflow and outflow of vehicles at any time of the intersection, and to use the number of vehicles at this time to reflect the congestion of the road. That is, the degree of collapse at the intersection. A concrete example is given to illustrate the method of judging the class of brittle source. After judging the factors of traffic system, the factors of traffic accidents are studied in detail. The theory of complex system brittleness is applied to the accident entropy analysis of traffic accident system. Through the analysis of the factors causing road traffic accident, the statistics of specific traffic accidents in 2006 are taken as an example. The brittleness factors leading to the brittleness of traffic system are found. By reducing the accident entropy, the brittleness source is effectively controlled, and the corresponding control path is found. Finally, on the basis of the original consequence entropy function, the analytic hierarchy process is introduced to improve the calculation of the weight, which makes the analysis method of the consequence entropy function more reasonable. It is applied to the road traffic accident system, and the numerical simulation experiment is carried out, and the experimental results are analyzed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工程大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 ;2006年一次死亡10人以上特大道路交通事故回顧[J];道路交通管理;2007年03期

2 晏亦民;;我國交通事故傷亡現(xiàn)狀與控制對策[J];華東交通大學(xué)學(xué)報;2005年06期

3 金鴻章;李琦;吳紅梅;;基于脆性因子的復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)脆性分析[J];哈爾濱工程大學(xué)學(xué)報;2005年06期

4 喬向明,徐安,舒?zhèn)?中國道路交通事故變化趨勢預(yù)測[J];長安大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)版);2004年06期

5 黃平,王亞軍,李生才;2003年11月—2004年2月國內(nèi)安全事故統(tǒng)計分析[J];安全與環(huán)境學(xué)報;2004年02期

6 金鴻章,郭健,韋琦,林德明,吳紅梅;基于滑動t檢驗法的非典型性肺炎疫情的脆性分析[J];哈爾濱工程大學(xué)學(xué)報;2003年06期

7 郭健,金鴻章,韋琦;基于脆性勢函數(shù)對復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)的脆性分析[J];自動化技術(shù)與應(yīng)用;2003年07期

8 田振清,周越;信息熵基本性質(zhì)的研究[J];內(nèi)蒙古師范大學(xué)學(xué)報(自然科學(xué)漢文版);2002年04期

9 魏引尚,張儉讓,常心坦;瓦斯爆炸的突變模型[J];西安科技學(xué)院學(xué)報;2002年03期

10 董希琳;常見有毒化學(xué)品泄漏事故模型及救援警戒區(qū)的確定[J];武警學(xué)院學(xué)報;2001年06期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 韋琦;復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)脆性理論及其在危機(jī)分析中的應(yīng)用[D];哈爾濱工程大學(xué);2004年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 楊曉宇;基于復(fù)雜交通系統(tǒng)的脆性理論研究[D];哈爾濱理工大學(xué);2009年

，

本文編號：2170050