【摘要】：隨著城市空間規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大,城市居民職住分離問題日益突出,就業(yè)地與居住地的分離使城市居民的平均通勤距離和通勤時(shí)間日益增長(zhǎng),通勤出行問題變得日益嚴(yán)峻。在各種出行目的中,以上下班為目的的通勤出行比例高達(dá)40%～60%,以通勤為主體的早晚高峰出行量過于集中,加劇了城市中交通系統(tǒng)的供需矛盾。因此,解決好通勤出行問題對(duì)于緩解城市交通擁堵具有非常重要的意義。 本文以小汽車通勤出行者向公共交通轉(zhuǎn)移意向調(diào)查為基礎(chǔ),通過對(duì)小汽車和公交車通勤出行特征以及通勤出行方式和出發(fā)時(shí)刻選擇影響因素的分析,構(gòu)建了通勤出發(fā)時(shí)刻和出行方式選擇的Nested Logit模型,針對(duì)快速路設(shè)置公交專用道對(duì)小汽車向公共交通轉(zhuǎn)移的影響進(jìn)行了分析,為制定和實(shí)施緩解城市交通擁堵的政策提供了參考依據(jù)。本文具體做了如下的研究： 首先,介紹了本文的研究背景和意義,對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了綜述,在此基礎(chǔ)上提出了本文的研究?jī)?nèi)容和技術(shù)路線；其次,對(duì)本文所用到的一些基本概念和基礎(chǔ)理論進(jìn)行了界定和闡述；本文選取通州地區(qū)作為為調(diào)研區(qū)域,利用RP+SP的調(diào)查方法獲取所需的數(shù)據(jù),并利用方差判別法、打分法、邏輯校驗(yàn)法對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了篩選和修正。然后對(duì)小汽車和公交車通勤出行特征以及通勤出行者屬性特征進(jìn)行了分析；最后,構(gòu)建了通勤出發(fā)時(shí)刻和出行方選擇的Nested Logit模型,并運(yùn)用模型計(jì)算了五類出發(fā)時(shí)刻小汽車通勤出行方式向公共交通轉(zhuǎn)移率。 本文得出的主要結(jié)論有：影響通勤者出行方式選擇的因素主要有小汽車數(shù)量、年齡、家庭年收入、公交與小汽車出行時(shí)間差、小汽車上漲費(fèi)用、公交票價(jià)、公交擁擠程度、換乘次數(shù)以及小汽車出行單位時(shí)間費(fèi)用；影響通勤者出發(fā)時(shí)刻選擇的因素主要有年齡、是否有接送上學(xué)的小孩、單位上班時(shí)間、家庭年收入、小汽車數(shù)量以及出行距離。而且出發(fā)時(shí)刻越早的人選擇公交的概率越大；由于每次出行費(fèi)用從總體上看可以視作固定水平,而隨著小汽車出行單位時(shí)間費(fèi)用的升高,意味著小汽車通勤出行的時(shí)間在縮短,因此通勤者選擇公交出行的概率在降低。
[Abstract]:With the expansion of urban space, the separation of urban residents' occupation and residence becomes increasingly prominent. The separation of employment place and residence makes the average commuting distance and commuting time of urban residents increasing day by day, and the commuting travel problem becomes more and more serious. Among all kinds of travel purposes, the commuter travel ratio is as high as 40%, and the morning and evening peak travel volume with commuting as the main body is too concentrated, which intensifies the contradiction between supply and demand of the transportation system in the city. Therefore, it is very important to solve the problem of commuting travel for alleviating urban traffic congestion. Based on the investigation of the intention of car commuters to public transport, this paper analyzes the characteristics of commute travel of cars and buses, the commuting modes and the factors affecting the choice of departure time. In this paper, the Nested Logit model of commuting departure time and mode selection is constructed, and the influence of setting bus lanes on the transfer of cars to public transport is analyzed. It provides a reference for the formulation and implementation of policies to alleviate urban traffic congestion. Firstly, this paper introduces the research background and significance of this paper, summarizes the current research situation at home and abroad, and then puts forward the research content and technical route of this paper. Some basic concepts and theories used in this paper are defined and expounded, Tongzhou area is selected as the investigation area, the required data are obtained by using RP SP survey method, and the variance discriminant method is used to score the data. The logical calibration method is used to filter and modify the data. Then the characteristics of commute travel and the attribute of commuter are analyzed. Finally, the Nested Logit model of commute departure time and travel party selection is constructed. The model is used to calculate the transfer rate of five kinds of commute modes from cars to public transport. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: the number of cars, the age, the annual income of the family, the travel time difference between the bus and the car, the rising cost of the car, the ticket price of the bus, the degree of congestion of the bus are the main factors influencing the commuter's travel mode choice. The main factors that affect commuters' choice of departure time are age, whether there are children to and from school, working hours, annual income of family, number of cars and travel distance. And the earlier they start, the more likely they are to choose public transport; because the cost of each trip can be regarded as a fixed level in general, and with the increase of the cost per unit time of the car trip, it means that the commuting time of the car is shortened. Therefore commuter choice bus travel probability is decreasing.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U491

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