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天津市道路交通部門(mén)節(jié)能減排的LEAP模型與政策分析

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-06-08 11:00

  本文選題:能源消耗 + 污染物排放 ; 參考:《天津大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文


【摘要】:隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)、人口的快速發(fā)展和城市規(guī)模的不斷擴(kuò)張,我國(guó)城市道路機(jī)動(dòng)車保有量近年來(lái)增長(zhǎng)迅速,在帶來(lái)大量能源消耗和溫室氣體排放的同時(shí),也對(duì)大氣環(huán)境造成了嚴(yán)重影響。針對(duì)我國(guó)城市道路交通部門(mén)能源消耗和排放的研究已刻不容緩。為了研究現(xiàn)有政策對(duì)道路交通部門(mén)能耗和排放影響并分析不同政策措施的減排潛力,基于LEAP(Long Range EnergyAlternatives Planning System,長(zhǎng)期能源可替代規(guī)劃系統(tǒng))模型構(gòu)建了城市道路交通能耗與排放模型,并對(duì)天津市道路交通部門(mén)在四種情景下(基準(zhǔn)情景、現(xiàn)有政策情景、加強(qiáng)政策情景、混合政策情景)2010-2040年的能源消耗、溫室氣體排放(CO2和CH4)以及四種大氣污染物排放(CO、HC、NOx和PM)進(jìn)行了情景分析與政策模擬。研究結(jié)果表明,由于促進(jìn)公共交通和排放標(biāo)準(zhǔn)管理,,相對(duì)于基準(zhǔn)情景,現(xiàn)有政策情景在2040年的能源消耗、CO2排放及CH4排放可分別減少13.2%、12.9%和16.3%;四種大氣污染物CO、HC、NOx和PM可分別減排50.2%、39.5%、60.6%、80.3%。加強(qiáng)政策情景的節(jié)能減排效果最佳,機(jī)動(dòng)車保有量調(diào)控是其中最有效的措施。針對(duì)四種大氣污染物的減排,機(jī)動(dòng)車排放標(biāo)準(zhǔn)管理在所有情景下都是最有效的措施。目前,相對(duì)于大氣污染物減排,能源節(jié)約與溫室氣體減排是天津市道路交通實(shí)現(xiàn)節(jié)能減排需要解決的關(guān)鍵問(wèn)題,在制定節(jié)能減排相關(guān)政策時(shí),貨運(yùn)部門(mén)應(yīng)該引起相當(dāng)重視,如大力推廣營(yíng)運(yùn)貨車節(jié)能與新能源技術(shù)及其燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, population and the continuous expansion of urban scale, the number of motor vehicles on urban roads in China has increased rapidly in recent years, which not only brings a lot of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, but also has a serious impact on the atmospheric environment. It is urgent to study the energy consumption and emission of urban road traffic department in China. In order to study the impact of existing policies on energy consumption and emissions in road traffic sector and analyze the potential of different policies and measures to reduce emissions, a model of energy consumption and emission in urban road traffic is constructed based on the long range Energy alternatives Planning system, a long-term energy alternative planning system. Under four scenarios (benchmark scenario, existing policy scenario, strengthening policy scenario and mixed policy scenario), the energy consumption of Tianjin road traffic department in 2010-2040 is discussed. Scenario analysis and policy simulation of greenhouse gas emissions (CO _ 2 and Ch _ 4) and four atmospheric pollutants (CO _ (2) HCH _ (no _ x) and PM) were carried out. The results show that the current policy scenarios can reduce CO2 emissions and CH4 emissions by 13.2g% and 16.3x% respectively in 2040 compared with the baseline scenario, and the emission reductions of CO0.2HCONX and PM are 50.2nil and 39.50.30.30.35, respectively, because of promoting public transport and emission standard management. The results show that the current policy scenarios can reduce CO2 emissions and CH4 emissions by 13.2% and 16.30.5%, respectively, compared with the baseline scenario. The best effect of energy saving and emission reduction is to strengthen the policy scenario, and the control of vehicle ownership is the most effective measure. For the emission reduction of four kinds of air pollutants, vehicle emission standard management is the most effective measure in all scenarios. At present, energy conservation and greenhouse gas emission reduction are the key problems that need to be solved in Tianjin road traffic to achieve energy saving and emission reduction in comparison with the emission reduction of air pollutants. When formulating the policies related to energy conservation and emission reduction, the freight transport sector should pay considerable attention to it. Such as vigorously promote the operation of freight cars energy saving and new energy technology and fuel economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:天津大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2014
【分類號(hào)】:U491.9;X322

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條

1 蔡長(zhǎng)杰;耿福海;俞瓊;安俊琳;韓晶晶;;上海中心城區(qū)夏季揮發(fā)性有機(jī)物(VOCs)的源解析[J];環(huán)境科學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2010年05期



本文編號(hào):1995566

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