本文選題：快速公交系統(tǒng) + 突發(fā)事件　； 參考：《吉林大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：伴隨著我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程的加快，城市規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大和城市數(shù)量的迅速增加，城市人口迅猛增長(zhǎng)，交通擁堵逐漸被人們所重視。經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展也促使近年來私人小汽車的保有量不斷提升，交通需求的增長(zhǎng)已經(jīng)給城市交通帶來了極大的壓力，各種各樣的交通問題已經(jīng)成為制約城市發(fā)展的一個(gè)“瓶頸”。盡管許多城市已經(jīng)采取了各種不同的措施予以應(yīng)對(duì)，如增修城市道路，增加立交橋和人行天橋等，在一定程度上緩解了城市交通擁擠問題，但這種供需矛盾的平衡是短期的。隨著國(guó)家對(duì)支柱性產(chǎn)業(yè)汽車工業(yè)的支持及城市交通設(shè)施的完善，人們購(gòu)買小汽車的數(shù)量必然不斷增加。顯然，道路的增長(zhǎng)速度是遠(yuǎn)不能與車輛增長(zhǎng)同步的，因此交通需求與供給的矛盾將長(zhǎng)期存在，甚至加劇。 國(guó)內(nèi)外的無數(shù)研究成果表明，大力發(fā)展公共交通是緩解城市交通擁堵、改善城市交通環(huán)境的有效措施。由于快速公交系統(tǒng)具有常規(guī)公交的經(jīng)濟(jì)、便利、靈活等特點(diǎn)，，同時(shí)具有軌道交通大容量、高速度的特征，成為提高城市公共交通服務(wù)水平和運(yùn)行效率的最佳選擇。因此，研究城市BRT運(yùn)行系統(tǒng)的關(guān)鍵理論與方法，對(duì)于緩解城市交通擁擠、提高居民出行效率、改善交通環(huán)境，具有重要的意義。 依托交通運(yùn)輸部西部建設(shè)科技項(xiàng)目《城市快速公共交通（BRT）規(guī)劃、控制與運(yùn)營(yíng)關(guān)鍵技術(shù)研究》，本文突破傳統(tǒng)的BRT運(yùn)行控制系統(tǒng)理論與方法，提出BRT運(yùn)行控制系統(tǒng)，并對(duì)相關(guān)的關(guān)鍵理論與方法進(jìn)行了研究，具體研究?jī)?nèi)容如下： （1）充分分析了BRT運(yùn)行控制系統(tǒng)的功能需求，給出了BRT運(yùn)行控制系統(tǒng)的構(gòu)成，包括其邏輯框架設(shè)計(jì)、物理框架設(shè)計(jì)、系統(tǒng)功能劃分，等等。研究了BRT運(yùn)行控制系統(tǒng)的關(guān)鍵理論，為BRT運(yùn)行控制系統(tǒng)的構(gòu)建奠定了理論基礎(chǔ)。 （2）分析快速公交控制系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行狀態(tài)感知技術(shù)，從信息采集、運(yùn)行狀態(tài)判別兩個(gè)方面獲取系統(tǒng)實(shí)時(shí)運(yùn)行狀態(tài)，為下文控制策略實(shí)施提供數(shù)據(jù)支持。 （3）充分研究了BRT信號(hào)優(yōu)先控制策略與方法，對(duì)突發(fā)事件對(duì)BRT系統(tǒng)的影響進(jìn)行了分析，提出了突發(fā)事件下BRT運(yùn)行控制方法。在突發(fā)事件下，首先要滿足應(yīng)急車輛和EBRT車輛需求，其次要滿足交叉口所有交通參與者的交通需求。在控制模型中，根據(jù)車輛檢測(cè)系統(tǒng)判斷優(yōu)先控制對(duì)象的類型來采用不同的控制策略，對(duì)應(yīng)急車輛和EBRT采取絕對(duì)放行的原則，對(duì)BRT車輛，根據(jù)每一輛車的當(dāng)前運(yùn)行狀態(tài)來確定不同的控制策略。以北京市BRT1號(hào)線為仿真對(duì)象，驗(yàn)證了所提出方法的有效性。 （4）提出了基于客流變化的BRT發(fā)車頻率控制方法。BRT線路上的客流量在時(shí)空上具有不均衡性，因?yàn)榭土髁渴遣粩嘧兓�，在高峰期客流量比較大，而在平峰期客流量比較小，然而，每一天同一站點(diǎn)、同一時(shí)刻的客流量具有相似性特點(diǎn)，因此，可以通過歷史客流量和當(dāng)前的客流量，基于RBF神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型對(duì)未來時(shí)段的客流量進(jìn)行短期預(yù)測(cè)，以預(yù)測(cè)的客流量為基礎(chǔ)，構(gòu)建發(fā)車頻率模型，并運(yùn)用自適應(yīng)遺傳算法對(duì)模型進(jìn)行求解。以北京市BRT1號(hào)線實(shí)時(shí)數(shù)據(jù)驗(yàn)證了所提出的方法的有效性和可行性。 （5）提出了BRT運(yùn)行控制系統(tǒng)的評(píng)價(jià)方法。首先建立了BRT運(yùn)行控制系統(tǒng)的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系，包括建成前的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系和建成后的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。然后，充分分析了以往的各種BRT系統(tǒng)評(píng)價(jià)方法的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)，對(duì)于建成前的評(píng)價(jià)采用了二級(jí)模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)方法，建成后評(píng)價(jià)選擇基于灰色熵權(quán)聚類的方法，并以濟(jì)南市BRT1號(hào)線和2號(hào)線為研究對(duì)象，對(duì)所選擇的方法進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證。 （6）總結(jié)與展望。該部分對(duì)本文的研究工作及取得的成果進(jìn)行了全面的總結(jié)，并指出了本文現(xiàn)有研究的不足，對(duì)下一步研究工作進(jìn)行了展望。
[Abstract]:With the accelerating process of urbanization in China, the scale of cities is expanding and the number of cities is increasing rapidly. The population of cities is growing rapidly. Traffic congestion has been gradually paid attention to. Economic development has also promoted the increasing of private cars in recent years, and the increase of traffic demand has brought great pressure to urban traffic. A variety of traffic problems have become a bottleneck restricting the development of cities. Although many cities have taken various measures to deal with, such as increasing urban roads, increasing overpasses and pedestrian overpasses, to some extent alleviated the problem of urban traffic congestion, but the balance of the contradiction between supply and demand is short term. With the support of the country's support for the pillar industry and the improvement of urban transportation facilities, the number of people buying small cars will inevitably increase. Obviously, the growth rate of the road is far from the growth of vehicles. Therefore, the contradiction between the demand and supply of traffic will exist for a long time and even aggravate.
Numerous research results at home and abroad show that the development of public transport is an effective measure to alleviate traffic congestion and improve the urban traffic environment. As the bus rapid transit system has the characteristics of the economy, convenience and flexibility of the bus, it has the characteristics of large capacity and high speed, and it has become the improvement of urban public transportation service level. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the key theories and methods of the urban BRT operation system to alleviate urban traffic congestion, improve residents' travel efficiency and improve the traffic environment.
Relying on the urban rapid public transport (BRT) planning of the western construction technology project of the Ministry of transportation and transportation, the key technology research of control and operation is studied. This paper breaks through the traditional BRT operation control system theory and method, and puts forward the BRT operation control system, and studies the related key theories and methods, and the specific research contents are as follows:
(1) the functional requirements of BRT operation control system are fully analyzed, and the composition of BRT operation control system is given, including its logic frame design, physical frame design, system function division, and so on. The key theory of BRT operation control system is studied, which lays a theoretical foundation for the construction of BRT operation control system.
(2) the operation state perception technology of the bus rapid transit control system is analyzed, and the real-time running state of the system is obtained from two aspects of information collection and running state discrimination, and data support is provided for the implementation of the following control strategy.
(3) fully study the BRT signal priority control strategy and method, analyze the impact of unexpected events on the BRT system, and put forward the control method of BRT operation under sudden events. Under the emergency, first of all, we should meet the needs of emergency vehicles and EBRT vehicles, and then meet the traffic requirements of all traffic participants in the intersection. In the control model, According to the vehicle detection system to judge the type of the priority control object, we adopt different control strategies, take the principle of absolute release to the emergency vehicles and EBRT, and determine the different control strategies for the BRT vehicles according to the current running state of each vehicle. The validity of the proposed method is verified by the imitation real object of Beijing line BRT1 line.
(4) a frequency control method based on the change of passenger flow is proposed. The passenger flow on the.BRT line is unequal in time and space, because the passenger flow is constantly changing, the passenger flow is relatively large at the peak period, and the passenger flow is relatively small at the peak period, however, the passenger flow of the same station at the same time is similar to the passenger flow at the same time, therefore, Through the historical passenger flow and current passenger traffic, we can predict the passenger traffic in the future period based on the RBF neural network model. Based on the predicted passenger traffic, the model can be built and the adaptive genetic algorithm is used to solve the model. The proposed method is verified by the real time data of Beijing line BRT1 line. Effectiveness and feasibility.
(5) the evaluation method of the BRT operation control system is put forward. First, the evaluation index system of the BRT operation control system is established, including the evaluation index system before completion and the evaluation index system after completion. Then, the advantages and disadvantages of the previous evaluation methods of various BRT systems are fully analyzed, and the two level fuzzy synthesis is adopted for the evaluation before the completion of the construction. The evaluation method is based on the grey entropy weight clustering method after the completion of the evaluation, and takes the line BRT1 of Ji'nan city and line 2 as the research object, and the selected methods are verified.
(6) summary and prospect. This part summarizes the research work and achievements in this paper, and points out the shortcomings of the present research, and looks forward to the next research work.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U491.17

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