本文選題：統(tǒng)計生命價值 + 條件價值法�。� 參考：《大連理工大學(xué)》2014年博士論文

【摘要】：近年來,我國道路交通事故死亡人數(shù)和萬車死亡率一直位于世界之首,我國道路交通管理部門實施了多種道路交通安全項目,道路交通安全形勢取得一定好轉(zhuǎn)。如何科學(xué)評價道路交通安全項目的成效,是國內(nèi)外研究學(xué)者十分關(guān)心的問題。目前,國內(nèi)外普遍采用成本效益分析法對道路交通安全項目進行評價。道路交通安全項目的效益包括致命事故風(fēng)險降低挽救的人的生命價值以及非致命事故風(fēng)險降低節(jié)省的傷殘費用和減少的財產(chǎn)損失,其中如何科學(xué)合理地評價人的生命價值是國內(nèi)外研究熱點和難點之一 統(tǒng)計生命價值用于衡量致命事故風(fēng)險降低挽救的人的生命價值,現(xiàn)已成為道路交通安全項目成本效益分析中不可或缺的基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù),在國外有40年的研究歷史,但在我國起步較晚且相關(guān)研究鳳毛麟角。基于此,本文以私家車出行者為研究對象,以國內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究文獻綜述為基礎(chǔ),提出道路交通統(tǒng)計生命價值形成機理模型和評價模型,并于2010年至2011年在大連地區(qū)實施交通意向調(diào)查,并依據(jù)調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)對模型進行實證檢驗,最終獲得統(tǒng)計生命價值的評估值,旨在為政府進行道路交通安全項目評價提供參考依據(jù)。本研究的主要工作包括四方面： 首先：在廣泛收集統(tǒng)計生命價值相關(guān)文獻的基礎(chǔ)之上,對道路交通統(tǒng)計生命價值的研究脈絡(luò)進行了梳理。利用元分析方法,整理了1995年至2011年間202篇相關(guān)論文,從研究主題、參考學(xué)科、研究方法和分析層次四個維度分析了道路交通統(tǒng)計生命價值的研究特征；從評價方法、評價模型和影響因素三大研究主題入手,歸納了道路交通統(tǒng)計生命價值的主要研究成果;總結(jié)了國內(nèi)外道路交通統(tǒng)計生命價值的研究進展,并指出了現(xiàn)有研究存在的不足。 其次：基于計劃行為理論并結(jié)合利他行為理論,引入私家車出行者的風(fēng)險特征和社會經(jīng)濟特征,提出了道路交通統(tǒng)計生命價值形成機理的概念模型；利用結(jié)構(gòu)方程模型對概念模型進行了實證檢驗,分析了私家車出行者的風(fēng)險特征對道路交通統(tǒng)計生命價值的影響作用,并進一步揭示了私家車出行者的社會經(jīng)濟特征對道路交通統(tǒng)計生命價值的驅(qū)動作用。 再次,基于條件價值法并結(jié)合確定性校準(zhǔn)法,提出了道路交通統(tǒng)計生命價值的評價思路；利用多項Logit模型,引入個人特性變量,構(gòu)建了單邊界、雙邊界和三邊界兩分式統(tǒng)計生命價值評價模型;以購買交通安全產(chǎn)品和支付安全道路為假設(shè)場景進行了交通意向調(diào)查,對模型進行了實證檢驗并獲得了統(tǒng)計生命價值評估值,從而對三種評價模型和兩個假設(shè)場景進行了比較分析,并揭示了個人特性對統(tǒng)計生命價值的影響。 最后,基于意愿選擇法并結(jié)合正交試驗法,提出了道路交通統(tǒng)計生命價值的評價思路；利用2項Logit模型和混合Logit模型,引入路徑特性變量和個人特性變量,構(gòu)建了4種統(tǒng)計生命價值評價模型；以出行路徑選擇為假設(shè)場景進行了交通意向調(diào)查,利用Monte Carlo方法對ML模型進行了150次仿真模擬,完成了模型的實證檢驗并獲得了統(tǒng)計生命價值評估值,從而對4種評價模型進行了比較分析,并揭示了路徑特性和個人特性對統(tǒng)計生命價值的影響。 道路交通統(tǒng)計生命價值研究不僅可以拓展我國道路交通安全研究和交通經(jīng)濟學(xué)研究的領(lǐng)域,同時道路交通統(tǒng)計生命價值的評價值可為評價道路交通安全項目提供基本參數(shù),為保險公司制定和劃分致命事故賠償標(biāo)準(zhǔn)提供參考依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the number of road traffic accidents and the death rate of tens of thousands of cars in our country have been at the top of the world. The road traffic management departments in our country have implemented a variety of road traffic safety projects, and the road traffic safety situation has improved. How to evaluate the effectiveness of road traffic safety projects scientifically is a matter of great concern for researchers at home and abroad. At present, the cost benefit analysis is generally used to evaluate the road traffic safety projects. The benefits of road traffic safety projects include the life value of the fatal accident risk reduction and the saving of the non fatal accident risk and the reduced loss of the property, and how to evaluate the people scientifically and reasonably. Life value is one of the hotspots and difficulties at home and abroad.
The value of life value, which is used to measure the life value of fatal accident risk reducing and saving, has become an indispensable basic data in the cost-benefit analysis of road traffic safety projects. It has a history of 40 years in foreign countries, but it started relatively late in our country and related research on Feng Mao Jiao. Based on this, this paper studies the private car travelers. On the basis of the relevant literature review at home and abroad, the model and evaluation model of the formation mechanism of the life value of road traffic statistics are put forward, and the investigation of traffic intention is carried out in Dalian area from 2010 to 2011, and the model is tested on the basis of the survey data. Finally, the evaluation value of the statistical life value is obtained, which is designed for the government. The main work of this study includes four aspects:
First of all, based on the extensive collection of relevant literature on the value of life value, the research context of the life value of road traffic statistics is combed. By using the meta analysis method, 202 relevant papers from 1995 to 2011 are collated. The road traffic statistics are analyzed from the subject, the reference subject, the research method and the analytic hierarchy of the four dimensions. The research features of the value of life are studied. From the three main topics of the evaluation method, evaluation model and influencing factors, the main research results of the life value of road traffic statistics are summed up, the research progress on the life value of road traffic statistics at home and abroad is summarized, and the shortcomings of the existing research are pointed out.
Secondly, based on the theory of planned behavior and combining the theory of altruism, the risk characteristics and socioeconomic characteristics of private car travelers are introduced, and a conceptual model of the formation mechanism of the life value of road traffic statistics is put forward, and the structural equation model is used to test the conceptual model, and the risk characteristics of the private car travelers are analyzed. The impact of road traffic statistics on the value of life, and further reveals the driving effect of the socioeconomic characteristics of the private car travelers on the life value of road traffic statistics.
Thirdly, based on the conditional value method and combined with the deterministic calibration method, the evaluation idea of the life value of road traffic statistics is put forward. By using a number of Logit models and introducing individual characteristic variables, the statistical life value evaluation model of the single boundary, double boundary and three boundary two fraction is constructed, which is assumed as the assumption of the purchase of traffic safety products and the road of payment safety. The scene carried on the investigation of the traffic intention, tested the model and obtained the value of the statistical life value, and compared the three evaluation models and two hypothesis scenarios, and revealed the influence of the personal characteristics on the statistical life value.
Finally, based on the intention selection method and the orthogonal test method, this paper puts forward the evaluation idea of the life value of road traffic statistics, and uses 2 Logit model and mixed Logit model to introduce the path characteristic variables and individual characteristic variables, and constructs 4 kinds of statistical life value evaluation models. The Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the ML model by using the Monte Carlo method. The empirical test of the model is completed and the value of the value of the statistical life value is obtained. Thus the comparison and analysis of the 4 evaluation models are carried out, and the influence of the path characteristics and personal characteristics on the value of the statistical life price is revealed.
The life value study of road traffic statistics can not only expand the field of road traffic safety research and traffic economics research in China, but also the evaluation value of the life value of road traffic statistics can provide basic parameters for the evaluation of road traffic safety projects, and provide the reference basis for the insurance companies to formulate and divide the fatal accident compensation standards.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491

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本文編號：1806639