本文選題：海上交通事故　切入點(diǎn)：人為失誤　出處：《大連海事大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著船舶向自動(dòng)化以及智能化發(fā)展,航行環(huán)境和儀器設(shè)備對(duì)航行安全的影響有所減小,而人為操作失誤的影響程度愈發(fā)明顯。前不久,韓國(guó)“歲月”號(hào)客輪沉沒(méi),造成281人遇難,23人失蹤,初步分析原因?yàn)榇L(zhǎng)臨時(shí)改變航線以及裝載系固不牢靠。據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì),80%的海上交通事故是與人為因素有關(guān)的,因此,研究人為失誤及其影響因素,有利于降低人為操作失誤的概率,增進(jìn)船舶航行安全。 傳統(tǒng)的對(duì)海上交通事故的分析與預(yù)測(cè)多是圍繞人、船、環(huán)境、管理等方面展開(kāi),雖然考慮的因素面面俱到,但是往往忽略了人為因素的主導(dǎo)地位,因此,本文將以人為因素為出發(fā)點(diǎn),探討引發(fā)海上交通事故中人為失誤的機(jī)理。圍繞這一出發(fā)點(diǎn),文章首先分析了海上交通事故概況,討論了人為失誤的相關(guān)概念,得出海上交通事故中人為失誤的影響因素,為下文的追溯分析打下基礎(chǔ)；其次,參考現(xiàn)有的人為失誤模型,結(jié)合海上交通事故的具體情況,構(gòu)建了適合海上交通事故的人為失誤模型；最后,對(duì)現(xiàn)有人因可靠性分析方法進(jìn)行分析比較,將人的認(rèn)知可靠性與失誤分析方法(CREAM)引入海上交通事故人為失誤的分析中,通過(guò)構(gòu)建失誤模式、前因分類(lèi)表以及后果-前因追溯表,對(duì)人為失誤的根原因進(jìn)行追溯分析,并通過(guò)調(diào)查問(wèn)卷的形式,獲取效應(yīng)影響指數(shù),運(yùn)用擴(kuò)展法對(duì)人為失誤的發(fā)生概率進(jìn)行定量預(yù)測(cè)。 運(yùn)用CREAM法對(duì)“大舜”號(hào)海難事故進(jìn)行追溯分析,分析結(jié)果與事故調(diào)查報(bào)告基本一致,證明CREAM法在海上交通事故人為失誤分析中的可行性；同時(shí),從人的認(rèn)知行為過(guò)程角度,對(duì)“大舜”號(hào)海難事故進(jìn)行定量預(yù)測(cè),計(jì)算出人為失誤的概率。對(duì)于失誤概率比較大的人為失誤,結(jié)合根原因的追溯分析結(jié)果,可以采取相應(yīng)的應(yīng)對(duì)措施,避免類(lèi)似事件的發(fā)生。
[Abstract]:With the development of automation and intelligence of ships, the influence of navigation environment and equipment on navigation safety is reduced, and the influence of human error is becoming more and more obvious.Not long ago, the South Korean cruise ship "years" sank, killing 281 people and 23 people missing, preliminary analysis of the captain's temporary change of course and the loading is not secure.According to statistics, 80% of marine traffic accidents are related to human factors. Therefore, the study of human error and its influencing factors is helpful to reduce the probability of human error and improve the safety of navigation.The traditional analysis and prediction of maritime traffic accidents mainly focus on people, ships, environment, management and so on. Although the factors considered are all-inclusive, they often ignore the dominant position of human factors.Based on human factors, this paper discusses the mechanism of human error in marine traffic accidents.Focusing on this starting point, this paper first analyzes the general situation of marine traffic accidents, discusses the related concepts of human error, and draws the influence factors of human error in maritime traffic accidents, which lays the foundation for the tracing analysis below.Referring to the existing human error models and combining the specific conditions of marine traffic accidents, this paper constructs a human error model suitable for marine traffic accidents. Finally, the author analyzes and compares the existing human reliability analysis methods.The human cognitive reliability and fault analysis method is introduced into the analysis of human error in marine traffic accidents. The root causes of human error are analyzed retrospectively by constructing the fault mode, the antecedent classification table and the sequence-antecedent retrospective table.Through the form of questionnaire, the effect influence index is obtained, and the probability of human error is predicted quantitatively by the extended method.The CREAM method is used to analyze the shipwreck of Dasun. The result is consistent with the investigation report, which proves the feasibility of CREAM method in the analysis of human error in marine traffic accidents, and at the same time, from the perspective of human cognitive behavior,In this paper, the probability of human error is calculated by quantitative prediction of the shipwreck of Dasun.For the human error with high probability of error, combined with the results of the root cause analysis, the corresponding countermeasures can be taken to avoid the occurrence of similar events.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：U698.6

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本文編號(hào)：1704476