本文選題：危險(xiǎn)性　切入點(diǎn)：蒙特卡羅法　出處：《重慶交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：滑坡災(zāi)害是最為常見的地質(zhì)災(zāi)害，它不僅給人類的生產(chǎn)生活帶來威脅，而且對(duì)資源、環(huán)境、財(cái)產(chǎn)等具有嚴(yán)重破壞性。因此，開展滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估，評(píng)價(jià)滑坡發(fā)生的可能性以及由滑坡災(zāi)害所造成的損失，是滑坡災(zāi)害研究的重點(diǎn)課題。 已有的滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估工作，較多集中于大區(qū)域、大面積滑坡區(qū)劃的研究，而對(duì)于局部的、單體的滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估則相對(duì)較少。事實(shí)上，單體滑坡所造成的災(zāi)害更為直接，開展對(duì)單體滑坡的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估研究工作，很有必要。本文選擇公路單體滑坡作為研究對(duì)象，旨在構(gòu)建一套適用于公路滑坡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的方法體系，并通過應(yīng)用完成對(duì)重慶萬梁高速張家坪滑坡的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估。論文的研究工作及取得成果如下： ①研究了滑坡災(zāi)害及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的基本特征，區(qū)分滑坡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究中的概念，并通過對(duì)滑坡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估體系的研究，構(gòu)建了滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估框架。 ②運(yùn)用可靠性分析原理，選用失穩(wěn)概率作為評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)，構(gòu)建了基于蒙特卡羅法的危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)模型，，通過建立滑坡年失穩(wěn)概率與危險(xiǎn)性的對(duì)應(yīng)關(guān)系，實(shí)現(xiàn)危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)。失穩(wěn)概率按天然、地震、暴雨三種工況進(jìn)行考慮；對(duì)于天然工況，選用傳遞系數(shù)法作為狀態(tài)函數(shù)；對(duì)于地震工況，則考慮地震力的作用，并將其簡(jiǎn)化，即把地震動(dòng)力指向滑坡滑向進(jìn)行處理，作用于各滑塊重心處；對(duì)于暴雨工況，針對(duì)滑體浸潤線難以確定的問題，本文按最不利狀態(tài)進(jìn)行考慮，構(gòu)建了滑坡體在飽和狀態(tài)下的失穩(wěn)概率計(jì)算模型，并最終實(shí)現(xiàn)了滑坡危險(xiǎn)性評(píng)價(jià)。 ③在易損性評(píng)價(jià)中，由于承災(zāi)體種類多，難以逐一進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià)。因此，本文分析了承災(zāi)體易損性的影響因素，挖掘其層次性、模糊性的特點(diǎn)，引入了模糊綜合評(píng)判，并構(gòu)建了基于模糊評(píng)判的易損性評(píng)價(jià)模型。 ④通過構(gòu)建的滑坡風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估方法體系，實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)張家坪滑坡的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估，評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果顯示：張家坪滑坡在天然工況下年失穩(wěn)概率為0.003，屬于中度危險(xiǎn)；在地震工況下年失穩(wěn)概率為0.0142，屬于高度危險(xiǎn)；在暴雨工況下年失穩(wěn)概率為0.0549，屬于極高度危險(xiǎn)；承災(zāi)體易損性為低易損性。通過計(jì)算，張家坪滑坡在天然工況下滑坡總風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為779.39萬元，人口年死亡率為0.054人/年；地震工況下滑坡總風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為1055.51萬元，人口年死亡率為0.256人/年；暴雨工況下滑坡總風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為1215.84萬元，人口年死亡率為0.988人/年；均為不可接受風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，應(yīng)及時(shí)采取風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理措施，以保證人民財(cái)產(chǎn)和生命安全。
[Abstract]:Landslide disaster is the most common geological hazard. It not only threatens the production and life of human beings, but also has serious damage to resources, environment, property, etc. Therefore, the risk assessment of landslide disaster is carried out. Evaluating the possibility of landslide occurrence and the loss caused by landslide disaster is an important subject in landslide disaster research. Most of the existing landslide risk assessment work is focused on the study of large area and large area landslide regionalization, but for the local landslide risk assessment, the single landslide risk assessment is relatively less. In fact, The disaster caused by single landslide is more direct. It is necessary to study the risk assessment of single landslide. In this paper, we select single landslide as the object of study, in order to construct a set of method system suitable for risk assessment of highway landslide. The risk assessment of Zhangjiaping landslide at Wanliang Expressway in Chongqing is completed through application. The research work and the results are as follows:. The main contents are as follows: (1) the basic characteristics of landslide hazard and its risk are studied, and the concept of landslide risk research is distinguished, and the framework of landslide hazard risk assessment is constructed through the study of landslide risk assessment system. Using the principle of reliability analysis and selecting the probability of instability as the evaluation index, a risk assessment model based on Monte Carlo method is constructed, and the corresponding relationship between the probability of annual instability and the risk of landslide is established. Risk assessment is realized. The probability of instability is considered under three conditions: natural, earthquake and heavy rain. For natural conditions, the transfer coefficient method is chosen as the state function. For seismic conditions, the effect of seismic force is considered and simplified. That is to say, the seismic force is directed to the landslide slide direction and acts on the center of gravity of the slider block. For the rainstorm condition, considering the difficult problem of determining the slip body infiltration line, this paper considers the most disadvantageous condition. The calculation model of landslide instability probability under saturated condition is constructed, and finally the landslide risk assessment is realized. 3 in the vulnerability evaluation, it is difficult to evaluate one by one because there are many types of disaster bearing bodies. Therefore, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of vulnerability of disaster bearing bodies, excavates the characteristics of hierarchy and fuzziness, and introduces fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. A vulnerability evaluation model based on fuzzy evaluation is constructed. 4 through the landslide risk assessment method system, the risk assessment of Zhangjiaping landslide is realized. The evaluation results show that the annual instability probability of Zhangjiaping landslide is 0.003 under natural working conditions, which belongs to moderate risk; The annual instability probability under earthquake condition is 0.0142, which is highly dangerous; the annual instability probability under heavy rain is 0.0549, which is extremely dangerous; the vulnerability of disaster bearing body is low vulnerability. The total risk of Zhangjiaping landslide under natural conditions is 7.7939 million yuan, the annual death rate of population is 0.054 person / year, the total risk of landslide under earthquake condition is 10.5551 million yuan, the annual mortality rate of population is 0.256 person / year, and the total risk of landslide is 12.1584 million yuan under heavy rain condition. The annual mortality rate of population is 0.988 person / year, which is an unacceptable risk. Risk management measures should be taken in time to ensure the safety of people's property and life.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U418.55

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