本文選題：船舶交通流　切入點(diǎn)：混合效應(yīng)　出處：《武漢理工大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：船舶交通流量預(yù)測是將統(tǒng)計預(yù)測方法應(yīng)用到水運(yùn)工程技術(shù)上的一門新興學(xué)科,其研究對于港口規(guī)劃建設(shè)、管理調(diào)度意義重大.目前,對于船舶交通流量的預(yù)測方法很多,且有些方法的預(yù)測精度高、計算量小,但這些預(yù)測方法除具有各自的一般缺點(diǎn)之外,對所有船舶(無論大小)都按一艘進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計,存在船舶交通流量細(xì)節(jié)預(yù)測精度低等問題,降低了預(yù)測結(jié)果的可適用性.因此探索新的方法研究船舶交通流量特點(diǎn)并對其進(jìn)行預(yù)測有著極其重要的意義. 本論文主要利用混合效應(yīng)模型理論,在船舶交通流現(xiàn)狀的背景下,將船舶進(jìn)行分類別研究,根據(jù)船舶交通流量的相關(guān)因素及船舶個體特征,探索各影響因素之間以及與船舶交通流量之間的混合效應(yīng)關(guān)系,從而建立最大程度反映港口實際交通狀況與特性的符合船舶交通流的混合效應(yīng)模型,利用該模型對船舶交通流量進(jìn)行預(yù)測研究分析,進(jìn)而為水道或航道的規(guī)劃設(shè)計和船舶通航管理提供基礎(chǔ)性依據(jù),并做出科學(xué)合理的港口規(guī)劃. 本文主要工作為以下幾個方面： 1.總結(jié)影響船舶交通流量的相關(guān)因素,并根據(jù)到達(dá)船舶的個體特征,對船舶進(jìn)行合理分類,并分析混合效應(yīng)對于船舶交通流研究的可適用性. 2.根據(jù)船舶交通流量影響因素,建立線性混合效應(yīng)模型,通過擬合比對,驗證混合效應(yīng)模型的可靠性和可行性. 3.建立基于樣條的非參數(shù)混合效應(yīng)模型,解決模型計算問題,并將其應(yīng)用到船舶交通流量與到達(dá)規(guī)律的研究上. 4.利用天津港船舶交通流觀測數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實例探究與結(jié)果對比分析. 論文詳盡地描述了船舶個體特征與交通流量的混合效應(yīng)關(guān)系,結(jié)果表明利用混合效應(yīng)模型,考慮組間差異,區(qū)分船舶類型來研究交通流量,驗證了模型對于交通流量預(yù)測與到達(dá)規(guī)律研究的可行可靠性與有效性,提高了預(yù)測精度,實際應(yīng)用性很強(qiáng),并為船舶交通流量細(xì)節(jié)預(yù)測提供了一個好方法.
[Abstract]:Ship traffic volume forecasting is the method applied to the port and waterway engineering technology on a new subject for the study of statistical prediction, port planning and construction, management and scheduling of great significance. At present, the prediction method of ship traffic flow, and some methods of high prediction accuracy, small amount of calculation, but the prediction method has general shortcomings the outside of all ships (regardless of size) according to a statistics, there is low accuracy problem of ship traffic flow prediction for details, reduce the prediction results. So the exploration method of ship traffic flow characteristics and its prediction has extremely important significance.
This paper used the mixed model theory in effect, the ship traffic flow situation under the background of the ship by category research, according to the related factors of vessel traffic flow and ship individual characteristics, mixing effect between the various influencing factors, and explore the relationship between traffic flow, so as to establish the maximum degree reflects the mixed effect model of ship the actual traffic status and traffic flow characteristics of port, forecast analysis of ship traffic flow by using the model, so as to provide basis for channel planning and management of ship navigation, and make scientific and rational planning of ports.
The main work of this paper is the following aspects:
1., summarize the factors that affect the traffic volume of ships, and classify the ships reasonably according to the individual characteristics of the ships, and analyze the applicability of the mixed effects to the research of ship traffic flow.
2. according to the influence factors of the ship traffic flow, a linear mixing effect model is set up, and the reliability and feasibility of the mixed effect model is verified by fitting comparison.
3. a non parametric mixed effect model based on spline is established to solve the problem of model calculation, and it is applied to the study of ship traffic flow and arrival law.
4. use the observation data of the ship traffic flow in Tianjin port to carry out a case study and compare the results with the results.
The detailed description of the relationship between individual characteristics and the mixed traffic flow of the ship, the results show that the mixed effects model, considering the differences between groups, to study the traffic flow between ship types, validation of the model for the study of traffic flow prediction and arrival pattern can be feasible and effective, to improve the prediction accuracy and practical application very strong, and it provides a good method for ship traffic flow details forecast.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U491.112;O212.1

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