本文選題：軌道交通　切入點：客流預(yù)測　出處：《長安大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：交通調(diào)查是利用客觀的手段測定道路交通流及其相關(guān)現(xiàn)象的片段，，通過分析從而了解與掌握交通流的規(guī)律。其目的是向城市建設(shè)規(guī)劃、交通運輸、環(huán)境保護以及公安交通管理部門提供用于改善、優(yōu)化道路交通的真實數(shù)據(jù)和可靠參考資料。目前吉林市正在進行新一輪城市總體規(guī)劃修編，軌道交通已納入城市總體規(guī)劃，故提出了《吉林市城市軌道交通線網(wǎng)規(guī)劃》編制工作。綜合交通調(diào)查及客流預(yù)測工作又是城市軌道交通線網(wǎng)規(guī)劃的必要前提，在這樣的背景下本文對吉林市綜合交通調(diào)查展開了研究。 本文首先對城市軌道交通規(guī)劃內(nèi)容從功能定位、線網(wǎng)規(guī)劃、客流預(yù)測等階段進行總結(jié)分類；對城市軌道交通客流預(yù)測模型進行對比分析，依據(jù)《城市軌道交通客流預(yù)測規(guī)范》（送審稿）確定城市軌道交通客流預(yù)測城市所需交通數(shù)據(jù)的三方面內(nèi)容：交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施數(shù)據(jù)、交通需求數(shù)據(jù)和交通運行狀況數(shù)據(jù)；對城市綜合交通調(diào)查理論進行研究，對綜合交通調(diào)查內(nèi)容、調(diào)查方法以及各方法的適用條件進行了分析探討，并且著重研究了城市居民出行調(diào)查的相關(guān)問題，包括抽樣率基礎(chǔ)理論、調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)處理模型、調(diào)查誤差分析以及居民“一次出行”的定義等。在此基礎(chǔ)上，根據(jù)吉林市具體情況，提出了切實可行的綜合交通調(diào)查和居民出行調(diào)查方案；對調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)進行整理、校核，利用EXCEL對數(shù)據(jù)進行初步運算，運用TransCAD交通規(guī)劃軟件對數(shù)據(jù)進行分析，形象客觀的再現(xiàn)吉林市交通狀況，同時通過TransCAD內(nèi)嵌模型對城市交通需求進行預(yù)測；根據(jù)軟件處理結(jié)果總結(jié)得到吉林市居民出行特征、綜合交通系統(tǒng)運行現(xiàn)狀、全市各交通分區(qū)的出行發(fā)生吸引量、全市出行總量及分布，為核定城市軌道客流預(yù)測交通模型及參數(shù)、城市軌道的線路布設(shè)、線網(wǎng)布局及方案評價提供基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)。最后對吉林市城市交通諸多方面進行了評價，其中包括對外交通布局、城市道路網(wǎng)系統(tǒng)、過江交通、交通結(jié)構(gòu)、公共交通、停車、交通運行、道路交通安全與環(huán)境保護等方面。
[Abstract]:Traffic survey is a segment of measuring road traffic flow and its related phenomena by objective means, and through analysis, the law of traffic flow is understood and grasped. Its purpose is to plan for urban construction and transportation. The environmental protection and public security traffic management departments provide real data and reliable reference materials for improving and optimizing road traffic. At present, Jilin City is undergoing a new round of urban master plan revision, and rail transit has been incorporated into the urban master plan. Therefore, this paper puts forward the compiling work of "Jilin City Urban Rail Transit Network Planning". The comprehensive traffic investigation and passenger flow prediction work are also the necessary prerequisites of the urban rail transit network planning. In this context, this paper carried out a comprehensive traffic investigation in Jilin City. In this paper, the content of urban rail transit planning is summarized and classified in terms of function orientation, line network planning, passenger flow prediction and so on, and a comparative analysis of urban rail transit passenger flow forecasting model is carried out. According to the "norms for passenger flow Prediction of Urban Rail Transit" (draft for review), three aspects of traffic data for urban rail transit passenger flow prediction are determined: traffic infrastructure data, traffic demand data and traffic operation status data; The theory of urban comprehensive traffic survey is studied, the contents, methods and applicable conditions of comprehensive traffic survey are analyzed and discussed, and the related problems of urban residents' trip investigation are emphatically studied. Including the basic theory of sampling rate, the data processing model of investigation, the analysis of survey error and the definition of "one trip" of residents, etc. On this basis, according to the concrete situation of Jilin City, A feasible scheme of comprehensive traffic survey and resident travel survey is put forward, the survey data is sorted, checked, the data are preliminarily calculated by EXCEL, and the data are analyzed by TransCAD traffic planning software. Image and objective reproduction of Jilin city traffic situation, at the same time through the TransCAD embedded model to forecast the urban traffic demand; according to the software processing results summed up Jilin residents travel characteristics, comprehensive traffic system operation status, The amount of trip attraction, the total amount and distribution of travel in each traffic district of the city, the traffic model and parameters for the prediction of passenger flow of the approved urban rail, and the layout of the lines of the urban rail, The layout of the network and the evaluation of the plan provide the basic data. Finally, the paper evaluates Jilin's urban traffic in many aspects, including external traffic layout, urban road network system, river crossing traffic, traffic structure, public transport, parking, etc. Traffic operation, road traffic safety and environmental protection.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長安大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U12

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