本文關(guān)鍵詞： 交通影響評(píng)價(jià) TransCAD 四階段法 交通需求預(yù)測(cè)　出處：《新疆農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著城市開發(fā)強(qiáng)度的不斷提高，交通問(wèn)題日益突出，已成為制約城市發(fā)展的一個(gè)重要因素。如何在當(dāng)前道路交通環(huán)境與高強(qiáng)度土地開發(fā)利用情況下最大限度的滿足交通需求，已經(jīng)成為城市交通系統(tǒng)發(fā)展所面對(duì)的重要難題。為了協(xié)調(diào)城市開發(fā)中土地利用與城市交通系統(tǒng)的關(guān)系和評(píng)估城市各類項(xiàng)目建成后對(duì)交通系統(tǒng)的影響，因此許多城市引進(jìn)交通影響評(píng)價(jià)工作機(jī)制，以減輕建設(shè)項(xiàng)目對(duì)城市交通系統(tǒng)的影響。在此背景下，針對(duì)城市建設(shè)項(xiàng)目交通影響評(píng)價(jià)工作中的交通需求預(yù)測(cè)進(jìn)行研究。 根據(jù)城市建設(shè)項(xiàng)目交通影響評(píng)價(jià)的特點(diǎn)，結(jié)合現(xiàn)有交通需求預(yù)測(cè)模型，以烏魯木齊市交通影響評(píng)價(jià)項(xiàng)目為例，基于交通調(diào)查，研究適合在城市建設(shè)項(xiàng)目交通影響評(píng)價(jià)中使用TransCAD進(jìn)行的交通需求預(yù)測(cè)的模型與方法。結(jié)合烏魯木齊市交通影響評(píng)價(jià)項(xiàng)目，通過(guò)將人工預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果與使用TransCAD所得預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果及目標(biāo)年現(xiàn)狀交通量進(jìn)行對(duì)比，探討基于TransCAD實(shí)現(xiàn)交通需求預(yù)測(cè)的優(yōu)勢(shì)與不足。 本文針對(duì)城市建設(shè)項(xiàng)目交通影響評(píng)價(jià)項(xiàng)目中使用TransCAD進(jìn)行交通需求預(yù)測(cè)做了下述研究： （1）對(duì)項(xiàng)目區(qū)影響范圍進(jìn)行交通小區(qū)劃分，利用TransCAD建立影響范圍區(qū)路網(wǎng)圖，通過(guò)TransCAD自帶數(shù)據(jù)表對(duì)交通基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行儲(chǔ)存與使用。 （2）利用現(xiàn)有交通需求預(yù)測(cè)模型，結(jié)合TransCAD軟件中各類模型的使用，對(duì)交通影響評(píng)價(jià)項(xiàng)目的交通需求預(yù)測(cè)過(guò)程中使用“四階段法”預(yù)測(cè)的模型原理及模型組合方案進(jìn)行設(shè)計(jì)說(shuō)明，并對(duì)相應(yīng)參數(shù)進(jìn)行標(biāo)定。通過(guò)TransCAD實(shí)現(xiàn)交通影響評(píng)價(jià)項(xiàng)目的交通需求預(yù)測(cè)工作。 （3）結(jié)合烏魯木齊市實(shí)例，探討利用TransCAD實(shí)現(xiàn)交通需求預(yù)測(cè)的方法，并將預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果與通過(guò)人工計(jì)算所得預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析，驗(yàn)證使用TransCAD的預(yù)測(cè)合理性，，減少人工預(yù)測(cè)在評(píng)價(jià)過(guò)程中的誤差。
[Abstract]:With the continuous improvement of the intensity of urban development, traffic problems become increasingly prominent, which has become an important factor restricting urban development. How to meet the traffic demand to the maximum extent in the current road traffic environment and high-intensity land exploitation and utilization, In order to coordinate the relationship between land use and urban transport system in urban development and evaluate the impact of various urban projects on the transportation system, it has become an important problem for the development of urban transportation system. Therefore, many cities introduce traffic impact assessment (TIA) mechanism to reduce the impact of construction projects on urban traffic system. In this context, traffic demand prediction in urban construction project traffic impact assessment (TIA) is studied. According to the characteristics of urban construction project traffic impact assessment, combined with the existing traffic demand forecasting model, taking Urumqi traffic impact assessment project as an example, based on traffic survey, This paper studies the model and method of traffic demand forecasting which is suitable for traffic impact assessment of urban construction projects using TransCAD. Combined with Urumqi traffic impact assessment project, By comparing the result of artificial forecast with the result of using TransCAD and the current traffic volume in the target year, the advantages and disadvantages of realizing traffic demand forecasting based on TransCAD are discussed. In this paper, the traffic demand prediction using TransCAD in urban construction project traffic impact assessment project is studied as follows:. 1) divide the influence area of the project area into the traffic district, use TransCAD to build the road map of the influence area, and store and use the basic traffic data through the TransCAD data table. 2) using the existing traffic demand forecasting model and the use of all kinds of models in TransCAD software, the model principle and model combination scheme of using "four-stage method" in the traffic demand forecasting process of traffic impact assessment project are designed and explained. The corresponding parameters are calibrated and the traffic demand prediction of the traffic impact assessment project is realized by TransCAD. Combined with Urumqi city, this paper discusses the method of using TransCAD to realize traffic demand forecasting, and compares the forecast results with those obtained by manual calculation, and verifies the rationality of using TransCAD. To reduce the error of artificial prediction in the evaluation process.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：新疆農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U491

【共引文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 王小艷;烏魯木齊市住宅類建設(shè)項(xiàng)目交通影響后評(píng)價(jià)研究[D];新疆農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué);2014年

本文編號(hào)：1553156