本文關(guān)鍵詞： 高速公路改擴(kuò)建 交通預(yù)測 費(fèi)用模型 模擬退火　出處：《蘭州交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：高速公路是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的必然產(chǎn)物，對我國的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)及分布、城市結(jié)構(gòu)和規(guī)模、中小城市的發(fā)展，以至在提高居民生活水平縮小城鄉(xiāng)差別方面起著重要的作用。 伴隨國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的飛速增長，人們對于高速公路運(yùn)輸?shù)慕煌ㄐ枨蟛粩嘣黾樱S多高速公路出現(xiàn)了擁堵及運(yùn)營效率低下的問題。高速公路要適應(yīng)及滿足這種快速增長的運(yùn)輸需求可以通過大范圍的新建高速公路或?qū)εf路改擴(kuò)建升級這兩種途徑來實(shí)現(xiàn)。從交通與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的相關(guān)性來看，新建高速公路雖然能夠解決交通運(yùn)輸需求問題，但是在給一個(gè)區(qū)域帶來經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的同時(shí)也會(huì)帶來很多負(fù)面效應(yīng)，例如環(huán)境惡化、占用大量土地資源等。相比較而言，對已建高速公路進(jìn)行改擴(kuò)建具有占地少、污染小等優(yōu)點(diǎn)。因此為了滿足大量的運(yùn)輸需求，現(xiàn)在多數(shù)地區(qū)都十分青睞于對舊有高速公路進(jìn)行改擴(kuò)建。 我國的現(xiàn)有的高速公路改擴(kuò)建方案基本都是立足于拓寬路幅寬度，沒有從系統(tǒng)的角度審視個(gè)別路段的改擴(kuò)建對于高速公路路網(wǎng)通行能力的整體影響，并且改擴(kuò)建方案眾多，各有利弊，如何選擇一個(gè)投資最小且獲益最大的方案已成為亟待研究的重大課題。 本文從綜合考慮節(jié)約建設(shè)成本及解決通行能力的角度出發(fā)，對高速公路改擴(kuò)建方案選擇問題做了如下幾方面的工作： 1.概括了我國高速公路的發(fā)展歷程，分析了高速公路在發(fā)展過程中出現(xiàn)的問題及未來發(fā)展的趨勢。綜述了國內(nèi)外在高速公路改擴(kuò)建領(lǐng)域的研究現(xiàn)狀。 2.研究并總結(jié)了傳統(tǒng)四階段法的交通需求預(yù)測原理及相關(guān)模型。 3.介紹了高速公路路段趨勢交通量、誘增交通量、轉(zhuǎn)移交通量的預(yù)測方法及模型，闡述了利用OD反推技術(shù)獲取現(xiàn)狀年OD交通量的原理與方法。 4.研究了幾種常見改擴(kuò)建方式及這些方式的優(yōu)、缺點(diǎn)，并建立改擴(kuò)建單位里程建設(shè)費(fèi)用估算模型，從降低建設(shè)成本與解決通行能力的角度出發(fā)，提出了高速公路改擴(kuò)建最優(yōu)方案選擇模型，并給出了模擬退火算法求解該模型時(shí)具體的操作。 5.將研究理論運(yùn)用于實(shí)例分析之中，經(jīng)過交通量預(yù)測、通行能力分析、求解方案選擇模型等幾個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)，得出實(shí)例中最優(yōu)的改擴(kuò)建方案，，加以驗(yàn)證高速公路改擴(kuò)建方案選擇模型的有效性。
[Abstract]:The expressway is an inevitable product of economic development. It plays an important role in the industrial structure and distribution, the urban structure and scale, the development of small and medium-sized cities, and even improving the living standard of urban residents, and narrowing the difference between urban and rural areas.
With the rapid growth of the national economy, increasing traffic demand for highway transportation, many highways appeared congestion and the problem of low operational efficiency. Highway to adapt to and meet the rapid growth of transport demand through a wide range of new highways or on the old road expansion and upgrading of the two ways from the perspective of relevance. Transportation and economic development, the new highway transportation demand is to solve the problem, but in a region to bring economic development will also bring many negative effects, such as the deterioration of the environment, take up a lot of land resources. In comparison, has been built on the highway expansion has less area, less pollution and other advantages. So in order to meet a lot of transportation demand, now most areas are very popular on the old highway to the extension.
Our country's existing highway reconstruction scheme is based on the width of road widening, no expansion of overall impact on capacity of freeway to examine individual sections from the angle of the system, and the reconstruction scheme is numerous, each have advantages and disadvantages, how to choose a minimum investment and benefit scheme has become a major issue urgently.
Based on the comprehensive consideration of saving construction cost and solving traffic capacity, this paper has done the following works for the selection of expressway expansion plan.
1., it summarizes the development process of Expressway in China, analyzes the problems and future development trend of expressway development, and summarizes the research status of expressway reconstruction and expansion at home and abroad.
2. research and summarize the traditional four phase method of traffic demand forecasting principle and related models.
3., it introduces the forecast methods and models of expressway traffic volume, induced traffic volume and traffic volume, and expounds the principle and method of obtaining the current OD traffic volume by using OD backstepping technology.
Study on several common faults of the 4. expansion mode and these advantages, and establish a modified cost estimation model of construction mileage expansion unit, by reducing construction cost and solve the capacity point of view, put forward the selection model of optimal scheme of expressway extension, and gives the specific operation of the model simulated annealing algorithm.
5., applying the research theory to the case analysis, through the traffic volume prediction, traffic capacity analysis and solution plan selection model, we get the best reconstruction and expansion plan in the case, and verify the effectiveness of the expressway renewal and expansion plan selection model.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U418.8

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