本文關(guān)鍵詞： 橋梁結(jié)構(gòu) 結(jié)構(gòu)安全評(píng)價(jià) 時(shí)間序列分析 灰色時(shí)序組合預(yù)測(cè)模型 ARMA控制圖　出處：《重慶交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：橋梁結(jié)構(gòu)在長(zhǎng)期運(yùn)營(yíng)中，由于受到各種不確定因素的影響，結(jié)構(gòu)超限、超期服役、疲勞、腐蝕等危害性事件，必將導(dǎo)致橋梁結(jié)構(gòu)出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重安全隱患，并可能由此帶來巨大的生命財(cái)產(chǎn)損失。這就要求安全評(píng)估系統(tǒng)能及時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)損傷并給出損傷預(yù)警提示。然而，作為橋梁健康監(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng)核心的安全評(píng)價(jià)，依然采用基于精確的結(jié)構(gòu)模型的安全方法。事實(shí)上，結(jié)構(gòu)在長(zhǎng)期服役中其結(jié)構(gòu)參數(shù)不斷發(fā)生變化，為此建立精確結(jié)構(gòu)模型的安全評(píng)價(jià)方法不能取得令人滿意的結(jié)果。 鑒于橋梁健康監(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng)采集了海量包含反應(yīng)結(jié)構(gòu)損傷特征信息的時(shí)序數(shù)據(jù)，可從中挖掘出反應(yīng)結(jié)構(gòu)系統(tǒng)性能的演變規(guī)律。這種基于時(shí)序分析的方法既能夠克服了建立精確結(jié)構(gòu)模型的困難，又具有通用性，但它仍處于研究初期，對(duì)其進(jìn)行深入研究極具現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 基于此，本文從時(shí)間序列分析的角度出發(fā)，對(duì)橋梁結(jié)構(gòu)安全評(píng)價(jià)方法進(jìn)行了探索和研究。為此，本文主要從以下幾個(gè)方面展開研究： (1)研究橋梁結(jié)構(gòu)安全評(píng)價(jià)的重要性、歸納總結(jié)現(xiàn)有橋梁結(jié)構(gòu)安全評(píng)價(jià)方法，并分析其中的不足。突出基于時(shí)序分析法的重要性。 (2)將時(shí)序分析法、灰色預(yù)測(cè)模型引入到橋梁監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)分析中，提出基于灰色時(shí)序組合模型（ARMA-GM）算法的數(shù)據(jù)處理方法在橋梁監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)中的應(yīng)用；并以實(shí)際橋梁監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)為例，通過有效預(yù)測(cè)橋梁結(jié)構(gòu)未來狀態(tài)趨勢(shì)，證明了ARMA-GM模型在橋梁未來狀態(tài)趨勢(shì)預(yù)測(cè)中的可行性。 (3)提出一種基于ARMA控制圖的橋梁結(jié)構(gòu)安全評(píng)價(jià)方法，該方法考慮了橋梁結(jié)構(gòu)的實(shí)際情況，將控制圖的控制限與橋梁結(jié)構(gòu)可靠度指標(biāo)相結(jié)合，設(shè)置了初級(jí)預(yù)警限和安全告警限，通過觀測(cè)統(tǒng)計(jì)量在二級(jí)控制限內(nèi)外的分布情況來判斷橋梁結(jié)構(gòu)的安全情況。這使得控制圖的控制限與橋梁結(jié)構(gòu)的安全設(shè)計(jì)規(guī)范緊密相連。 (4)以重慶馬桑溪長(zhǎng)江大橋監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)為實(shí)例，針對(duì)本文提出的灰色時(shí)序組合預(yù)測(cè)模型和基于ARMA控制圖的安全評(píng)價(jià)方法進(jìn)行了實(shí)際應(yīng)用。 結(jié)果表明：時(shí)序模型和灰色模型能夠?qū)蛄航】当O(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng)中的監(jiān)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行有效處理，對(duì)橋梁結(jié)構(gòu)狀態(tài)參數(shù)預(yù)報(bào)精度較高，在預(yù)測(cè)步長(zhǎng)相同情況下，本文提出的灰色時(shí)序組合模型的預(yù)報(bào)精度比單一時(shí)序模型、灰色模型更高，能夠?qū)蛄航Y(jié)構(gòu)趨勢(shì)進(jìn)行中長(zhǎng)期預(yù)報(bào)，提前給出預(yù)警提示；基于ARMA控制圖的安全評(píng)價(jià)方法，所確定的安全評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)可有效識(shí)別結(jié)構(gòu)損傷，克服了虛發(fā)報(bào)警和漏發(fā)報(bào)警的缺陷。
[Abstract]:In the long-term operation of bridge structure, due to the influence of various uncertain factors, the structure overrun, excessive service, fatigue, corrosion and other harmful events, will inevitably lead to serious hidden dangers of bridge structure. And it may bring huge loss of life and property. This requires the safety assessment system to detect the damage and give the warning of damage in time. However, as the core of the bridge health monitoring system, the safety evaluation. The security method based on precise structural model is still adopted. In fact, the structural parameters of the structure are constantly changing during the long service. Therefore, the safety evaluation method based on accurate structural model can not obtain satisfactory results. In view of the bridge health monitoring system to collect a large number of response structure damage information containing time series data. This method based on time series analysis can not only overcome the difficulty of establishing accurate structure model, but also be universal, but it is still in the early stage of study. It is of great practical significance to study it in depth. Based on this, this paper explores and studies the method of bridge structure safety evaluation from the point of view of time series analysis. 1) the importance of safety assessment of bridge structure is studied, the existing methods of safety assessment of bridge structure are summarized, and the shortcomings are analyzed, and the importance of time series analysis is highlighted. 2) introducing the time series analysis method and the grey prediction model into the bridge monitoring data analysis. The application of data processing method based on grey time series combination model (ARMA-GM) algorithm in bridge monitoring data is presented. Taking the actual bridge monitoring data as an example, the feasibility of the ARMA-GM model in predicting the future state trend of the bridge structure is proved by effectively predicting the future state trend of the bridge structure. (3) A method of bridge structure safety evaluation based on ARMA control chart is proposed. The control limit of the control chart is combined with the reliability index of the bridge structure, taking into account the actual situation of the bridge structure. The primary warning limit and the safety warning limit are set. The safety situation of bridge structure is judged by observing the distribution of statistics inside and outside the two-stage control limit, which makes the control limit of control chart closely related to the safety design specification of bridge structure. Taking the monitoring data of Mausangxi Yangtze River Bridge in Chongqing as an example, the grey time series combination prediction model and the safety evaluation method based on ARMA control chart are applied in this paper. The results show that the time series model and the grey model can effectively deal with the monitoring data in the bridge health monitoring system, and the prediction accuracy of the bridge structure state parameters is higher, and the prediction step is the same. The prediction accuracy of the grey time series combination model proposed in this paper is higher than that of the single time series model. The grey model can forecast the bridge structure trend in the medium and long term and give the warning warning in advance. Based on the safety evaluation method of ARMA control chart, the safety evaluation index can effectively identify the structural damage and overcome the defects of false alarm and false alarm.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：U441;U447

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 劉娜;欒元重;黃曉陽;王建波;;基于時(shí)間序列分析的橋梁變形監(jiān)測(cè)預(yù)報(bào)研究[J];測(cè)繪科學(xué);2011年06期

2 單銳;王淑花;高東蓮;高敬輝;;基于時(shí)間序列模型與灰色模型的組合預(yù)測(cè)模型的研究[J];燕山大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào);2012年01期

3 宗周紅,WANG T L,HUANG D Z,鄭振飛;橋梁健康監(jiān)測(cè)應(yīng)用與研究現(xiàn)狀(英文)[J];福州大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2002年02期

4 董聰;結(jié)構(gòu)系統(tǒng)可靠性理論:進(jìn)展與回顧[J];工程力學(xué);2001年04期

5 劉訓(xùn)波;孫小明;朱奕穎;;基于ARMA(n,n-1)模型的統(tǒng)計(jì)質(zhì)量控制圖[J];工業(yè)工程與管理;2011年03期

6 韓亮;樊健生;;近年國內(nèi)橋梁垮塌事故分析及思考[J];公路;2013年03期

7 馮元生,董聰;枚舉結(jié)構(gòu)主要失效模式的一種方法[J];航空學(xué)報(bào);1991年09期

8 程遠(yuǎn)勝,區(qū)達(dá)光,譚國煥,白植洲;基于分級(jí)遺傳算法的結(jié)構(gòu)損傷識(shí)別方法[J];華中科技大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2002年08期

9 劉雙印;徐龍琴;李道亮;曾立華;;基于時(shí)間相似數(shù)據(jù)的支持向量機(jī)水質(zhì)溶解氧在線預(yù)測(cè)[J];農(nóng)業(yè)工程學(xué)報(bào);2014年03期

10 肖冠英;;大跨度橋梁健康監(jiān)測(cè)及安全評(píng)估研究[J];四川建筑;2008年05期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 陳世民;橋梁監(jiān)測(cè)系統(tǒng)中海量數(shù)據(jù)分析理論與應(yīng)用[D];重慶大學(xué);2011年

2 侯雅文;六西格瑪管理的統(tǒng)計(jì)評(píng)價(jià)方法研究與應(yīng)用[D];暨南大學(xué);2010年

，

本文編號(hào)：1472225