本文關(guān)鍵詞： 城際鐵路 公路客運 協(xié)同學(xué) 系統(tǒng)論 多目標優(yōu)化　出處：《蘭州交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：交通運輸方式隨著社會經(jīng)濟、科技創(chuàng)新的飛速發(fā)展而變得日趨復(fù)雜和多樣性。為了提供乘客多樣的出行需求，各種運輸方式協(xié)同發(fā)展已經(jīng)成為一種共識，是優(yōu)化綜合交通運輸系統(tǒng)的根本途徑之一。針對當前運輸方式之間競爭加劇、銜接不協(xié)調(diào)、運輸服務(wù)與基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施差距大等不足，鑒于此背景下，研究分析各種運輸方式間的關(guān)系，并提出協(xié)同發(fā)展的建議對策，以節(jié)約和有效地利用交通資源。 在我國綜合運輸系統(tǒng)中，公路和鐵路作為兩種最主要的客運運輸方式，它們之間的關(guān)系既有競爭又有合作。多年來公路客運量、旅客周轉(zhuǎn)量在客運市場的絕對優(yōu)勢地位表明它是區(qū)域內(nèi)中短途乘客出行的主要方式。但隨著鐵路快速客運網(wǎng)絡(luò)的基本形成和高速鐵路的建設(shè)，導(dǎo)致城際間客運總量急劇上升，公路運輸能力出現(xiàn)飽和狀態(tài)。城際鐵路在以其安全、快捷、舒適、環(huán)保等優(yōu)勢一躍成為區(qū)域城際運輸?shù)墓歉闪α�，且隨著城市規(guī)模不斷擴張和人民群眾生活水平的提高，旅客出行需求朝著高端、個性化、多樣化方向發(fā)展。因此，對于區(qū)域運輸通道內(nèi)為爭奪客運市場的公路、城際鐵路，它們之間將會掀起更激烈的競爭。 本文在大量查閱相關(guān)文獻和研究結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上，引進系統(tǒng)工程和協(xié)同學(xué)理論，在深入分析城際鐵路和公路客運系統(tǒng)的基礎(chǔ)上，以公、鐵客運系統(tǒng)的實際功能利用與理想功能利用差值最小和乘客出行社會效益最大為優(yōu)化目標，構(gòu)建了公、鐵運輸系統(tǒng)多目標協(xié)同優(yōu)化模型。首先詳細分析了兩種運輸方式的發(fā)展概況和存在的問題，對比各自的技術(shù)經(jīng)濟特點，，闡述了城際鐵路的發(fā)展對公路旅客運輸帶來的挑戰(zhàn)與機遇，進而總結(jié)了公、鐵系統(tǒng)協(xié)同發(fā)展的目標、原則。論文以理論研究為主，并結(jié)合成綿樂城際鐵路的實際情況，選用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度方法分析了影響乘客出行方式選擇的因素；利用指數(shù)平滑法預(yù)測了特征年區(qū)域內(nèi)沿線城市間城際鐵路、高速公路和既有鐵路的客運量；選用Logit模型求解了城際鐵路與公路客流分擔率，并進行模型求解和結(jié)果分析，得出成綿樂運輸通道內(nèi)高速公路、城際鐵路和既有鐵路的各自的居民出行結(jié)構(gòu)比例。最后，從不同的角度對城際鐵路、公路客運的協(xié)同發(fā)展提出了對策。
[Abstract]:Transportation mode along with the social economy, the rapid development of science and technology innovation have become more and more complicated and diverse. In order to provide a variety of passenger travel demand, the coordinated development of various modes of transport has become a consensus, is one of the fundamental ways to optimize the comprehensive transportation system. According to the competition between the current mode of transport, convergence coordination, lack of transportation service and infrastructure gap, in view of this background, the study analyzes the relationship between various ways of transportation, and put forward countermeasures and suggestions for coordinated development, in order to save and effective use of transportation resources.
In China's transportation system, highway and railway as the two most important passenger transport mode, the relationship between them has both competition and cooperation. Over the years, highway passenger volume, passenger turnover volume of absolute advantage in the passenger market show that it is the main way of regional short haul passengers. But with the basic construction the formation of fast passenger railway network and high-speed railway, intercity passenger volume to rise sharply, road transport capacity saturation appears. Intercity Railway on its safe, fast, comfortable, environmental protection and other advantages has become the backbone of regional intercity transportation, with the continuous expansion of city scale and the people's living standards improve. The demand for passenger travel towards high-end, personalized, diversified direction. Therefore, the regional transport corridor for the highway passenger transport market, intercity railway, between them will More fierce competition will be set off.
Based on a large number of related literatures and research results, the introduction of system engineering theory and Synergetics, based on in-depth analysis of intercity railway and highway transportation system, to the public, the actual function of rail passenger system by using difference function and the ideal minimum and passenger line to maximize the social benefit as the optimization goal, builds the public. Collaborative optimization model of multi objective iron transport system. The first detailed analysis of the development of the two transportation modes and problems of technical and economic characteristics of each comparison, elaborated the intercity railway development of highway passenger transportation brings challenges and opportunities, and then summarizes the public, collaborative development objectives, principles of iron system the theoretical research, combined with the actual situation of chengmianle intercity railway, the grey correlation analysis of the factors affecting the selection of passenger travel mode; the use of exponential smoothing Sliding method to forecast the characteristics of regional inter city along intercity railway, highway and the existing railway passenger volume; using Logit model to solve the intercity railway and highway passenger sharing rate, and the model is solved and the result analysis that chengmianle transportation channel highways, intercity railway and existing railway their residents structure the proportion. Finally, from the different angle to the intercity railway, highway passenger transportation coordinated development countermeasures were put forward.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U116

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