發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-01-08 10:29

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：大型市政道路BT模式風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析和分擔(dān)研究　出處：《西南交通大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： BT模式 市政道路 合規(guī)性分析 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān) WBS-RBS ISM 模糊綜合評(píng)判法

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)城市化的發(fā)展,基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的建設(shè)越來(lái)越重要,但沉重的政府債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)使其融資陷入困境,而較為新型的BT模式則為此提供了新的途徑。但是國(guó)家尚未對(duì)該模式出臺(tái)相關(guān)法律法規(guī)進(jìn)行約束,造成在國(guó)內(nèi)應(yīng)用時(shí)無(wú)規(guī)范借鑒并遭受了“帶資承包”等質(zhì)疑。而且,BT項(xiàng)目大多具有規(guī)模大、參與方眾多、外部環(huán)境復(fù)雜和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素多等特點(diǎn),因此各參與方在項(xiàng)目中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理工作就顯得尤為重要。本文即針對(duì)以上現(xiàn)象中存在的一些問(wèn)題展開(kāi)研究,以期對(duì)BT項(xiàng)目的規(guī)范性運(yùn)行、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別和評(píng)價(jià)以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)工作提供借鑒和指導(dǎo)。主要研究工作如下： 1.闡述了BT模式在我國(guó)應(yīng)用時(shí)遇到的問(wèn)題及其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的復(fù)雜性和特殊性,并介紹了BT模式的內(nèi)涵、特點(diǎn)和工作流程,并將BT模式與其它幾種類似PPP融資模式進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,總結(jié)出BT模式的適用性。 2.在明確我國(guó)常見(jiàn)的BT模式運(yùn)行方式的參與方關(guān)系、內(nèi)涵和特點(diǎn)之后,篩選了若干判別標(biāo)準(zhǔn),對(duì)各運(yùn)行方式進(jìn)行合規(guī)性判別,并給出了規(guī)范運(yùn)作的建議。 3.為了解決風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的核心問(wèn)題即風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)問(wèn)題,本文在目前的研究基礎(chǔ)之上,提出關(guān)于BT模式風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)的原則和實(shí)施流程框圖。 4.將目前我國(guó)常用的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別方法進(jìn)行對(duì)比,篩選出符合BT模式風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別的方法,即WBS-RBS法,并對(duì)BT模式主要參與方的工作和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了分解。 5.結(jié)合BT項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的特點(diǎn)和要求,本文篩選出ISM法和模糊綜合評(píng)判法并將它們一起運(yùn)用于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析和評(píng)價(jià),讓這兩種方法的優(yōu)勢(shì)互補(bǔ)。 6.結(jié)合成都天府大道南延線BT項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析：用WBS-RBS法識(shí)別本項(xiàng)目主要參與方的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并編制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)清單,然后建立評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系；接著用ISM法和模糊綜合評(píng)判法對(duì)主要參與方的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行分析和評(píng)價(jià),其中隸屬度和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)權(quán)重的確定分別使用的是均值法和AHP法。計(jì)算分析后得出項(xiàng)目主要參與方的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)關(guān)聯(lián)和層次結(jié)構(gòu)圖、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)和排序以及整體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平,并結(jié)合項(xiàng)目實(shí)際驗(yàn)證了評(píng)價(jià)方法的科學(xué)性。最后按照文中提出的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)原則和流程對(duì)該項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了分擔(dān)并做出必要說(shuō)明。
[Abstract]:With the development of urbanization in China, the construction of infrastructure is becoming more and more important, but the heavy burden of government debt makes its financing difficult. The relatively new BT model provides a new way to this end, but the state has not yet issued the relevant laws and regulations to restrict the model. Because of the lack of reference in domestic applications and has been questioned by "with capital contracting". And most of the BT projects have the characteristics of large scale, many participants, complex external environment and many risk factors. Therefore, the risk management work of the participants in the project is particularly important. This paper aims at some problems in the above phenomenon, with a view to the normative operation of BT projects. Risk identification and evaluation as well as risk sharing provide reference and guidance. The main research work is as follows: 1. The problems encountered in the application of BT mode in China and the complexity and particularity of risk management are expounded, and the connotation, characteristics and workflow of BT mode are introduced. The BT model is compared with other similar PPP financing models, and the applicability of BT model is summarized. 2. After defining the relationship, connotation and characteristics of the common BT operation mode in China, some discriminant standards are selected to judge the compliance of each operation mode. Some suggestions on the standard operation are also given. 3. In order to solve the core problem of risk management, which is risk sharing, this paper puts forward the principle and implementation flow chart of risk sharing in BT mode on the basis of current research. 4.Compared with the common risk identification methods in our country at present, the WBS-RBS method, which accords with BT pattern risk recognition method, is screened out. The work and risk of the main participants in BT mode are decomposed. 5. According to the characteristics and requirements of BT project risk evaluation, this paper selects the ISM method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and applies them to risk analysis and evaluation together, so that the advantages of the two methods complement each other. 6.According to the BT project of Chengdu Tianfu Avenue South extension Line, this paper uses WBS-RBS method to identify the risk of the main participants of the project and make the risk list, and then establish the evaluation index system; Then the ISM method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are used to analyze and evaluate the risk of the main participants. The determination of membership and risk weight is based on the mean method and AHP method respectively. After the calculation and analysis of the main participants in the project risk association and hierarchy chart risk ranking and ranking as well as the overall risk level. Finally, according to the principle and process of risk sharing proposed in this paper, the risk of the project is shared and the necessary explanation is made.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TU997;U415.1

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本文編號(hào)：1396757