本文關鍵詞：基于耗散理論的海上�；愤\輸安全研究　出處：《大連海事大學》2014年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 海上�；愤\輸系統(tǒng) 耗散理論 能量 安全熵 最小風險路徑 安全保障技術 安全博弈管理

【摘要】：海上大宗�；坟浳镞\輸是國民經濟發(fā)展的基礎和有力保障。受到�；坟浳锢砘瘜傩�、海運環(huán)境復雜性等因素的影響,海上�；愤\輸系統(tǒng)表現(xiàn)出明顯的開放性、動態(tài)性、不確定性、不可逆性和突變性特點。雖然近幾十年來,國內外學者對海上危化品運輸系統(tǒng)安全予以了充分關注,提出各種方案增進運輸安全,但是方案多具有一定的局限性和片面性。針對海上危化品運輸系統(tǒng)的上述特點,基于耗散理論和實船工作經驗,提出從系統(tǒng)能量和熵兩個方面入手促進系統(tǒng)安全。 針對�；坟浳锢砘瘜傩詫ο到y(tǒng)安全的影響,首先從“人-機-環(huán)境”系統(tǒng)工程學出發(fā)研究了海上危化品運輸系統(tǒng)構成,提出了以“人”、“船”、“環(huán)境”、“貨物”和“管理”等五個安全因素構建的�；愤\輸系統(tǒng)模型。在剖析運輸系統(tǒng)特點的基礎上,提出以耗散理論為基礎開展安全研究。 考慮到海上危化品運輸系統(tǒng)具有動態(tài)性、開放性特點,以及物理學中有關能量的定義,提出運輸系統(tǒng)廣義“安全能量”概念,并以“安全能量”為研究標的度量系統(tǒng)可靠性。為此,首先研究了一般系統(tǒng)能量的構成、能量的守恒與轉化,研究了海上�；愤\輸系統(tǒng)勢能的耗散,構建了海上�；愤\輸系統(tǒng)勢能函數模型,最后提出從安全保障技術和安全管理兩方面入手提高系統(tǒng)可靠性、促進系統(tǒng)安全。 針對運輸系統(tǒng)的不確定性,研究了熵與系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定性的關系以及海上�；愤\輸系統(tǒng)耗散機理,提出了�；愤\輸系統(tǒng)安全熵概念,構建了系統(tǒng)安全熵評價模型,最后提出綜合考慮系統(tǒng)可靠性(能量)和穩(wěn)定性(安全熵)評價系統(tǒng)安全。在此基礎上,進一步研究了最小風險路徑原理,提出基于不確定條件的安全路徑選擇方法,完成了�；愤\輸系統(tǒng)安全狀態(tài)評價研究。 在上述系統(tǒng)能量、熵及最小風險路徑研究基礎上,從安全保障技術與安全管理兩方面研究了促進運輸安全的具體方法,包括規(guī)避有害氣體的危化品船舶機動航法模型、博弈論在危化品運輸系統(tǒng)安全管理中的應用等。 以能量和熵為研究標的,以系統(tǒng)論、非線性理論、耗散理論為基礎開展海上危化品運輸系統(tǒng)安全評價研究,以煙羽模型、博弈論為理論基礎開展海上�；愤\輸系統(tǒng)安全保障與管理技術研究,既是對復雜、不確定系統(tǒng)開展可靠性與穩(wěn)定性研究的探索,更是對海上交通工程領域安全評價與保障技術的完善。
[Abstract]:The transportation of dangerous chemicals by sea is the basis and powerful guarantee of the development of national economy. It is influenced by the physical and chemical properties of dangerous chemicals and the complexity of marine environment. The transport system of dangerous chemicals at sea shows obvious characteristics of openness, dynamics, uncertainty, irreversibility and mutation, although in recent decades. Scholars at home and abroad have paid full attention to the safety of the transportation system of dangerous chemicals at sea, and put forward various schemes to improve the transport safety. However, most of the schemes have some limitations and one-sidedness. According to the above characteristics of the transportation system of dangerous chemicals at sea, based on dissipative theory and actual ship working experience. The system security is promoted from two aspects of system energy and entropy. In view of the effect of physical and chemical properties of dangerous chemicals on system safety, the composition of transportation system of dangerous chemicals at sea is studied from the point of "man-machine-environment" system engineering, and the "man" and "ship" are put forward. The transport system model of dangerous chemicals is constructed by five safety factors, such as "environment", "cargo" and "management". On the basis of analyzing the characteristics of transportation system, a safety study based on dissipative theory is put forward. In view of the dynamic and open characteristics of the transport system of dangerous chemicals at sea and the definition of energy in physics, the concept of "safe energy" in the broad sense of transport system is put forward. The reliability of measurement system based on "safe energy" is studied. Firstly, the energy composition, conservation and transformation of general system are studied, and the potential energy dissipation of transportation system of dangerous chemicals at sea is studied. The potential energy function model of the transportation system of dangerous chemicals at sea is constructed. At last, it is put forward to improve the reliability of the system and promote the safety of the system from the aspects of safety guarantee technology and safety management. Aiming at the uncertainty of transportation system, the relationship between entropy and system stability and the dissipative mechanism of transportation system of dangerous chemicals at sea are studied, and the concept of safety entropy of transportation system of dangerous chemicals is put forward. The system safety entropy evaluation model is constructed. Finally, the system reliability (energy) and stability (safety entropy) evaluation model is proposed. On this basis, the principle of minimum risk path is further studied. A method of safety path selection based on uncertain conditions is proposed, and the research on safety state evaluation of dangerous chemicals transportation system is completed. On the basis of the energy, entropy and minimum risk path of the system mentioned above, the specific methods to promote transportation safety are studied from the aspects of safety assurance technology and safety management. It includes the hazardous chemicals ship maneuvering navigation model and the application of game theory in the safety management of dangerous chemicals transportation system. Based on system theory, nonlinear theory and dissipation theory, the safety evaluation of transportation system of dangerous chemicals at sea is carried out based on energy and entropy, and smoke plume model is used. Based on the theory of game theory, the research on the safety guarantee and management technology of the transportation system of dangerous chemicals at sea is not only the exploration of the research on the reliability and stability of the complex and uncertain system. It also improves the safety evaluation and security technology in the field of marine traffic engineering.
【學位授予單位】：大連海事大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：U695.292;U698.3

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