氣候變化背景下中國自然濕地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)甲烷排放的時(shí)空變化
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-05-14 23:16
【摘要】：甲烷是一種重要的溫室氣體,其增溫潛勢(shì)為二氧化碳(CO2)的28倍,自工業(yè)時(shí)代以來貢獻(xiàn)了大約20%的地球增溫。源匯的動(dòng)態(tài)變化決定了大氣甲烷的豐度。當(dāng)前大氣甲烷濃度幾乎為工業(yè)時(shí)代前的三倍,但是過去三十年間這種上升趨勢(shì)并沒有持續(xù)。上世紀(jì)90年代開始大氣甲烷濃度增長速率幾乎降低到零,2006年后又恢復(fù)了增長。由于近期大氣甲烷增長速率異常的年際變化以及多個(gè)甲烷排放源存在的不確定性,增強(qiáng)我們對(duì)于全球甲烷排放源的了解具有重要的意義。全球變暖背景下,考慮到濕地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)甲烷排放對(duì)于大氣甲烷循環(huán)極為重要的貢獻(xiàn),全球尺度未來濕地甲烷排放與氣候變化之間的反饋研究已經(jīng)初步展開,然而目前我們關(guān)于未來氣候變化背景下中國尺度自然濕地甲烷排放的時(shí)空變化的認(rèn)知還處于空白階段。TRIPLEX-GHG模型是新一代用于量化陸地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)溫室氣體動(dòng)態(tài)的過程模型,在全球植被動(dòng)力學(xué)模型—Integrated Biosphere Simulator(IBIS)的基礎(chǔ)上發(fā)展而來。經(jīng)過IBIS模型與新的甲烷生物地理化學(xué)模塊和水位模塊耦合,TRIPLEX-GHG模型可用于模擬自然濕地甲烷排放的動(dòng)態(tài),其在估算全球自然濕地甲烷排放量級(jí)和采集時(shí)間序列上甲烷排放動(dòng)態(tài)方面表現(xiàn)優(yōu)異,可以作為可靠的過程模型用于模擬不同類型自然濕地在不同條件下甲烷排放的時(shí)空格局。本研究應(yīng)用TRIPLEX-GHG模型,以三種代表性濃度路徑(Representative Concentration Pathways,RCPs)情景下,第五階段耦合模式比較計(jì)劃(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5)中的四種全球氣候模式的未來氣候變化數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)果,以及RCPs對(duì)應(yīng)的未來CO2變化數(shù)據(jù)作為模型的輸入數(shù)據(jù),在保持中國現(xiàn)有自然濕地分布不變情況下,模擬未來氣候變化背景下,2006—2100年中國自然濕地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)甲烷排放的時(shí)空變化。TRIPLEX-GHG模型的模擬結(jié)果表明:保持中國現(xiàn)有自然濕地分布不變,在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,21世紀(jì)末,中國自然濕地甲烷排放量與當(dāng)前水平相比分別增長32.0%、55.3%和90.8%。中國大陸南方自然濕地甲烷排放高于中部和北方,且自西向東呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢(shì)。甲烷高通量排放區(qū)域主要集中在長江中下游濕地、東北濕地和珠江沿岸濕地。RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下全國大部分自然濕地甲烷排放通量增加,而RCP2.6情景下本世紀(jì)中后期甲烷排放上升趨勢(shì)得到控制并開始下降,到世紀(jì)末部分地區(qū)(尤其是青藏高原地區(qū))甲烷排放通量與當(dāng)前水平相比有所降低。本研究可以為我國溫室氣體排放清單的制定提供參考依據(jù),同時(shí)也對(duì)科學(xué)地管理濕地起到了一定的輔助作用。
[Abstract]:Methane is an important greenhouse gas with a warming potential of 28 times that of carbon dioxide (CO2), which has contributed about 20 per cent of the Earth's warming since the industrial age. The dynamic change of source and sink determines the abundance of methane in the atmosphere. Atmospheric methane concentrations are almost three times higher than they were before the industrial age, but this upward trend has not continued over the past three decades. The growth rate of atmospheric methane concentration dropped to almost zero in the 1990 s and resumed after 2006. Due to the recent interannual variation of atmospheric methane growth rate anomalies and the uncertainty of multiple methane emission sources, it is of great significance to enhance our understanding of global methane emission sources. In the context of global warming, considering the extremely important contribution of methane emissions from wetland ecosystems to the atmospheric methane cycle, the feedback research on the relationship between methane emissions from wetlands and climate change on a global scale has been initially carried out. However, our cognition about the temporal and spatial variation of methane emissions from natural wetlands in China under the background of climate change in the future is still in a blank stage. TRIPLEX-GHG model is a new generation of process model used to quantify the dynamics of greenhouse gases in terrestrial ecosystems. It is developed on the basis of Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a global vegetation dynamics model. After coupling IBIS model with new methane biogeography module and water level module, TRIPLEX-GHG model can be used to simulate the dynamics of methane emission from natural wetlands. It can be used as a reliable process model to simulate the temporal and spatial pattern of methane emission from different types of natural wetlands under different conditions. In this study, the TRIPLEX-GHG model was used to compare the future climate change data results of the four global climate models in the fifth stage coupling model (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, CMIP 5) under the scenario of three representative concentration paths (Representative Concentration Pathways,RCPs). And the future CO2 change data corresponding to RCPs are used as the input data of the model, and the future climate change background is simulated under the condition that the distribution of natural wetlands in China remains unchanged. The temporal and spatial variation of methane emissions from natural wetland ecosystems in China from 2006 to 2100. The simulation results of TRIPLEX-GHG model show that the distribution of natural wetlands in China remains unchanged. Under RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, at the end of the 21st century, Compared with the current level, methane emissions from natural wetlands in China increased by 32.0%, 55.3% and 90.8%, respectively. Methane emissions from natural wetlands in the south of China were higher than those in the middle and north, and increased from west to east. High throughput methane emission areas are mainly concentrated in wetlands in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, northeast wetlands and wetlands along the Pearl River. Under RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, methane emission fluxes from most natural wetlands in China have increased. However, under the RCP2.6 scenario, the upward trend of methane emissions in the middle and late part of this century is controlled and began to decline, and by the end of the century, the methane emission fluxes in some areas (especially in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau) are lower than the current levels. This study can provide a reference for the formulation of greenhouse gas emission inventory in China, and also play a certain auxiliary role in the scientific management of wetlands.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：P467;X171
本文編號(hào)：2477124
[Abstract]:Methane is an important greenhouse gas with a warming potential of 28 times that of carbon dioxide (CO2), which has contributed about 20 per cent of the Earth's warming since the industrial age. The dynamic change of source and sink determines the abundance of methane in the atmosphere. Atmospheric methane concentrations are almost three times higher than they were before the industrial age, but this upward trend has not continued over the past three decades. The growth rate of atmospheric methane concentration dropped to almost zero in the 1990 s and resumed after 2006. Due to the recent interannual variation of atmospheric methane growth rate anomalies and the uncertainty of multiple methane emission sources, it is of great significance to enhance our understanding of global methane emission sources. In the context of global warming, considering the extremely important contribution of methane emissions from wetland ecosystems to the atmospheric methane cycle, the feedback research on the relationship between methane emissions from wetlands and climate change on a global scale has been initially carried out. However, our cognition about the temporal and spatial variation of methane emissions from natural wetlands in China under the background of climate change in the future is still in a blank stage. TRIPLEX-GHG model is a new generation of process model used to quantify the dynamics of greenhouse gases in terrestrial ecosystems. It is developed on the basis of Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a global vegetation dynamics model. After coupling IBIS model with new methane biogeography module and water level module, TRIPLEX-GHG model can be used to simulate the dynamics of methane emission from natural wetlands. It can be used as a reliable process model to simulate the temporal and spatial pattern of methane emission from different types of natural wetlands under different conditions. In this study, the TRIPLEX-GHG model was used to compare the future climate change data results of the four global climate models in the fifth stage coupling model (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, CMIP 5) under the scenario of three representative concentration paths (Representative Concentration Pathways,RCPs). And the future CO2 change data corresponding to RCPs are used as the input data of the model, and the future climate change background is simulated under the condition that the distribution of natural wetlands in China remains unchanged. The temporal and spatial variation of methane emissions from natural wetland ecosystems in China from 2006 to 2100. The simulation results of TRIPLEX-GHG model show that the distribution of natural wetlands in China remains unchanged. Under RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, at the end of the 21st century, Compared with the current level, methane emissions from natural wetlands in China increased by 32.0%, 55.3% and 90.8%, respectively. Methane emissions from natural wetlands in the south of China were higher than those in the middle and north, and increased from west to east. High throughput methane emission areas are mainly concentrated in wetlands in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, northeast wetlands and wetlands along the Pearl River. Under RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, methane emission fluxes from most natural wetlands in China have increased. However, under the RCP2.6 scenario, the upward trend of methane emissions in the middle and late part of this century is controlled and began to decline, and by the end of the century, the methane emission fluxes in some areas (especially in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau) are lower than the current levels. This study can provide a reference for the formulation of greenhouse gas emission inventory in China, and also play a certain auxiliary role in the scientific management of wetlands.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：P467;X171
【參考文獻(xiàn)】
相關(guān)期刊論文 前1條
1 馮虎元,程國棟,安黎哲;微生物介導(dǎo)的土壤甲烷循環(huán)及全球變化研究[J];冰川凍土;2004年04期
，本文編號(hào)：2477124
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