【摘要】：本研究立足于國家《“十二五”控制溫室氣體排放工作方案》,選取長株潭城市群為案例研究區(qū)域,選取工業(yè)產(chǎn)值增加值、單位GDP能耗、資金、行業(yè)碳排放量、城市碳匯面積等作為約束條件,以規(guī)劃期內(nèi)城市群凈碳減排量最小為優(yōu)化目標,建立了基于機會約束規(guī)劃(Chance Constrained Programming, CCP)方法的城市群低碳減排優(yōu)化模型,在考慮決策空間的基礎上,進而建立了基于區(qū)間-機會約束規(guī)劃(Interval Chance Constrained Programming, ICCP)的城市群低碳減排優(yōu)化模型。此外,為了降低決策風險,將城市群溫室氣體減排效益最大化,進一步建立基于兩階段隨機規(guī)劃(Two-stage Stochastic Programming, TSP)的城市群低碳減排優(yōu)化模型,以實現(xiàn)同時滿足溫室氣體減排規(guī)劃和城市群溫室氣體減排費用最小�；贑CP模型獲得的結果顯示,在不同可碳匯土地面積的三種違約概率水平0.01、0.05、0.1下,長株潭城市群區(qū)域碳排放總量規(guī)劃值分別為3133.77萬噸、3108.71萬噸和3088.79萬噸,與原有方案4081.54萬噸碳排放總量相比,分別下降了23.22%、23.83%和24.32%�；贗CCP的城市群低碳減排模型優(yōu)化結果顯示,在不同可碳匯土地面積的三種違約概率水平0.01、0.05、0.1下,長株潭城市群碳排放總量的規(guī)劃值分別為[3096.21,3171.32]萬噸、[3071.74,3145.67]萬噸、[3050.96,3126.61]萬噸,與原有方案相比,分別下降了[22.30,24.14]%、[22.92,24.74]%、[23.39,25.24]%。此外,建立的基于TSP的城市群低碳減排優(yōu)化模型優(yōu)化結果顯示,在低、中、高三個概率水平下獲得的溫室氣體減排費用分別為92685萬元,87039萬元和80662萬元,與第一階段決策方案規(guī)劃期118241萬元溫室氣體減排費用相比,基于TSP方法的城市群碳減排模型的優(yōu)化方案在概率水平0.01、0.05、0.1下分別將碳減排成本降低了21.63%、26.38%和31.78%。另一方面,基于TSP的城市群低碳減排優(yōu)化模型獲得的決策方案不僅滿足國家《“十二五”控制溫室氣體排放工作方案》和《湖南省“十二五”環(huán)長株潭城市群發(fā)展規(guī)劃》中對長株潭城市群區(qū)域的相關約束性指標的要求,而且可以對規(guī)劃區(qū)域內(nèi)可碳匯土地面積進行規(guī)劃,合理控制碳匯面積,實現(xiàn)有效減少城市碳排放總量,充分開發(fā)未利用土地,制約城市化過快發(fā)展、土地浪費等問題,合理有效地利用了土地資源,達到最優(yōu)的經(jīng)濟目標。
[Abstract]:This study is based on the national "12th Five-Year Plan" to control greenhouse gas emissions, selected Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration as a case study area, selected the added value of industrial output value, unit GDP energy consumption, capital, industry carbon emissions, Taking the minimum of net carbon emission reduction in urban agglomeration as the optimization objective, a low carbon emission reduction optimization model of urban agglomeration based on opportunity constrained programming (Chance Constrained Programming, CCP) method is established. On the basis of considering the decision space, a low carbon emission reduction optimization model of urban agglomeration based on interval-opportunity constrained programming (Interval Chance Constrained Programming, ICCP) is established. In addition, in order to reduce the risk of decision-making and maximize the benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction in urban agglomeration, a two-stage stochastic programming (Two-stage Stochastic Programming, TSP) based optimization model for urban agglomeration low carbon emission reduction is further established. In order to meet the greenhouse gas emission reduction planning and urban agglomeration greenhouse gas emission reduction costs minimum. The results based on CCP model show that the total carbon emission planning value of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration region is 31.3377 million tons under the three kinds of default probability level of different carbon sequestration land area. Compared with the original scheme, the total carbon emissions of 31.0871 million tons and 30.8879 million tons decreased by 23.22% and 24.32%, respectively. The optimization results of low carbon emission reduction model of urban agglomeration based on ICCP show that the total carbon emission planning value of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration is [3096.21 / 3171.32] tons under the three probability levels of default probability of different carbon sequestration land area. [3071.74kW 3145.67] million tons, and [3050.96m / 3126.61] tons, respectively, which decreased by [22.30V 24.14]%, [22.92U 24.74]% and [23.399U 25.24]%, respectively, compared with the original scheme. In addition, the optimized model of low-carbon emission reduction in urban agglomeration based on TSP shows that the cost of greenhouse gas emission reduction is 926.85 million yuan, 870.39 million yuan and 806.62 million yuan respectively at the low, middle and high probability levels. Compared with the 1.18241 billion yuan greenhouse gas emission reduction cost in the first stage decision plan planning period, the optimization scheme of the carbon emission reduction model of urban agglomeration based on TSP method reduces the cost of carbon emission reduction by 21.63 at the probability level of 0.01g / 0.050.1. 26.38% and 31.78% respectively. On the other hand, The decision scheme based on the TSP optimization model of low carbon emission reduction in urban agglomeration not only meets the national "12th Five-Year Plan" for greenhouse gas emission control and "the 12th Five-Year Plan of Hunan Province" for the development of Changzhou-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban agglomeration. Requirements for relevant binding indicators in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration region, Moreover, it is possible to plan the land area of carbon sequestration in the planning area, control the carbon sink area reasonably, realize the effective reduction of the total amount of urban carbon emissions, fully develop unused land, restrict the rapid development of urbanization and waste land, etc. Rational and effective use of land resources to achieve the optimal economic objectives.
【學位授予單位】：東北林業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：X321

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