中國工業(yè)氮氧化物排放的時空分布特征及驅(qū)動因素分析
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-16 14:55
【摘要】：作為"十二五"期間新納入控制性約束指標(biāo)的污染物,NO_X排放量的研究成果可為地區(qū)減排份額的制定提供依據(jù)。本文運用ESDA(探索性空間方法)分析省域工業(yè)NO_X排放的時空分布特征,進而通過LMDI模型分解探究其主要驅(qū)動因素。結(jié)果顯示:1工業(yè)NO_X的排放總量雖然呈現(xiàn)先增加后減少的態(tài)勢,但至2013年也只完成減排份額的5.6%,相對2015年15%的減排目標(biāo)還有一定距離,減排形勢嚴(yán)峻;2省域工業(yè)NOx排放在空間上呈現(xiàn)集聚分布特征,高排放量集聚主要出現(xiàn)在河北、河南、山東、江蘇等中東部地區(qū),且隨時間的推移有向外圍省份擴張的趨勢;3LMDI模型分解結(jié)果表明,經(jīng)濟發(fā)展是NOx增排的主要驅(qū)動力,生產(chǎn)技術(shù)進步和能源利用效率提升是減排的主要控制因素,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的減排效應(yīng)在2011年后開始凸顯;4以四象限圖及排放量為劃分依據(jù)將各省份劃分為3個大類,并從改進生產(chǎn)技術(shù)、提高能源利用效率、增加經(jīng)濟鼓勵、削減排放份額等方面提出相應(yīng)的減排建議。
[Abstract]:As a new pollutant in the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the research results of NO_X emissions can provide the basis for the formulation of regional emission reduction share. In this paper, ESDA (exploratory space method) is used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of industrial NO_X emissions in provincial areas, and then the main driving factors are analyzed through the decomposition of LMDI model. The results showed that: (1) although the total emission of industrial NO_X increased first and then decreased, it only completed 5.6of the emission reduction share by 2013, which is still far away from the 15% emission reduction target in 2015, and the situation of emission reduction is grim; (2) the industrial NOx emissions in provincial areas show the characteristics of agglomeration and distribution in space. The high emission agglomeration mainly occurs in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and other central and eastern regions, and tends to expand to the peripheral provinces with the passage of time; The decomposition results of 3LMDI model show that economic development is the main driving force of NOx emission increase, and the progress of production technology and the improvement of energy use efficiency are the main controlling factors of emission reduction, and the emission reduction effect of industrial structure adjustment began to prominent after 2011. 4 according to the four quadrant chart and the emission quantity, the provinces are divided into three categories, and the corresponding suggestions are put forward from the aspects of improving the production technology, improving the energy use efficiency, increasing the economic encouragement, reducing the emission share and so on.
【作者單位】： 中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(武漢)公共管理學(xué)院;中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(武漢)環(huán)境學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)青年基金項目(41401181) 湖北省自然科學(xué)基金項目(2013CFB010)
【分類號】：X701;X322
，
本文編號：2382537
[Abstract]:As a new pollutant in the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the research results of NO_X emissions can provide the basis for the formulation of regional emission reduction share. In this paper, ESDA (exploratory space method) is used to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of industrial NO_X emissions in provincial areas, and then the main driving factors are analyzed through the decomposition of LMDI model. The results showed that: (1) although the total emission of industrial NO_X increased first and then decreased, it only completed 5.6of the emission reduction share by 2013, which is still far away from the 15% emission reduction target in 2015, and the situation of emission reduction is grim; (2) the industrial NOx emissions in provincial areas show the characteristics of agglomeration and distribution in space. The high emission agglomeration mainly occurs in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu and other central and eastern regions, and tends to expand to the peripheral provinces with the passage of time; The decomposition results of 3LMDI model show that economic development is the main driving force of NOx emission increase, and the progress of production technology and the improvement of energy use efficiency are the main controlling factors of emission reduction, and the emission reduction effect of industrial structure adjustment began to prominent after 2011. 4 according to the four quadrant chart and the emission quantity, the provinces are divided into three categories, and the corresponding suggestions are put forward from the aspects of improving the production technology, improving the energy use efficiency, increasing the economic encouragement, reducing the emission share and so on.
【作者單位】： 中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(武漢)公共管理學(xué)院;中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(武漢)環(huán)境學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)青年基金項目(41401181) 湖北省自然科學(xué)基金項目(2013CFB010)
【分類號】：X701;X322
，
本文編號：2382537
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