基于WRF-CMAQ對江蘇省2014年冬半年霾日的模擬與評估
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-09 09:45
【摘要】：評估了WRF/CMAQ數(shù)值模式對2014年10月—2015年3月江蘇省冬半年霾日的模擬準確性,并探討了導(dǎo)致霾日預(yù)報不準確的可能原因.研究表明:(1)WRF/CMAQ模型中霾日預(yù)報基準量相對濕度、PM2.5的模擬趨勢與觀測比較吻合.大氣能見度模擬值與觀測值的平均值誤差為2~5km.臨海及近海城市大氣能見度模擬值普遍大于觀測值,均方根誤差超過10km以上.(2)能見度模擬較好的城市(南京、鎮(zhèn)江、常州、蘇州、揚州),觀測霾日與模擬霾日之間誤差小于10d,東邊沿海城市鹽城、南通、連云港等能見度模擬存在較大峰值的城市模擬最差誤差超過10km以上,模擬出的霾日數(shù)遠小于觀測到的霾日數(shù),誤差超過20d.(3)對能見度預(yù)報可能造成偏差的原因進行了初步探討,EC在PM2.5中所占比份模擬偏小、水溶性離子等模擬值被低估等造成氣溶膠消光系數(shù)偏小以及部分地區(qū)相對濕度模擬值偏低,風(fēng)速模擬偏大,都使得能見度模擬值偏大.
[Abstract]:The simulation accuracy of WRF/CMAQ numerical model for the winter haze days in Jiangsu Province from October 2014 to March 2015 is evaluated, and the possible causes of inaccuracy in the forecast of haze days are discussed. The results show that: (1) the simulated trend of PM2.5 for daily forecast of haze in WRF/CMAQ model is in good agreement with observations. The average error between the simulated and observed values of atmospheric visibility is 2 ~ 5 km. The simulated values of atmospheric visibility in coastal and coastal cities are generally larger than the observed values, and the root mean square error is higher than 10km. (2) cities with better visibility simulation (Nanjing, Zhenjiang, Changzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing, Zhenjiang, Changzhou, Suzhou), Yangzhou), the error between the observed haze day and the simulated haze day is less than 10 days. The worst simulation error in the east coastal cities of Yancheng, Nantong, Lianyungang and other cities with large peak visibility is more than 10km. The number of haze days simulated is much smaller than that of observed haze days, and the error is more than 20 days. (3) the possible causes of deviation in visibility prediction are discussed preliminarily. The low extinction coefficient of aerosol, the lower relative humidity and the larger wind speed caused by the underestimation of water soluble ions make the simulated visibility value larger.
【作者單位】： 南京信息工程大學(xué)大氣環(huán)境中心;南京信息工程大學(xué)大氣物理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金(41575009) 江蘇省產(chǎn)學(xué)研前瞻性項目(BY2015070-15) “江蘇省高校優(yōu)勢學(xué)科建設(shè)工程(PAPD)項目” 長江學(xué)者和創(chuàng)新團隊發(fā)展計劃
【分類號】：X513
本文編號：2173689
[Abstract]:The simulation accuracy of WRF/CMAQ numerical model for the winter haze days in Jiangsu Province from October 2014 to March 2015 is evaluated, and the possible causes of inaccuracy in the forecast of haze days are discussed. The results show that: (1) the simulated trend of PM2.5 for daily forecast of haze in WRF/CMAQ model is in good agreement with observations. The average error between the simulated and observed values of atmospheric visibility is 2 ~ 5 km. The simulated values of atmospheric visibility in coastal and coastal cities are generally larger than the observed values, and the root mean square error is higher than 10km. (2) cities with better visibility simulation (Nanjing, Zhenjiang, Changzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing, Zhenjiang, Changzhou, Suzhou), Yangzhou), the error between the observed haze day and the simulated haze day is less than 10 days. The worst simulation error in the east coastal cities of Yancheng, Nantong, Lianyungang and other cities with large peak visibility is more than 10km. The number of haze days simulated is much smaller than that of observed haze days, and the error is more than 20 days. (3) the possible causes of deviation in visibility prediction are discussed preliminarily. The low extinction coefficient of aerosol, the lower relative humidity and the larger wind speed caused by the underestimation of water soluble ions make the simulated visibility value larger.
【作者單位】： 南京信息工程大學(xué)大氣環(huán)境中心;南京信息工程大學(xué)大氣物理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金(41575009) 江蘇省產(chǎn)學(xué)研前瞻性項目(BY2015070-15) “江蘇省高校優(yōu)勢學(xué)科建設(shè)工程(PAPD)項目” 長江學(xué)者和創(chuàng)新團隊發(fā)展計劃
【分類號】：X513
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