【摘要】：利用STIRPAT模型對未來西北五省區(qū)碳排放峰值進行了預(yù)測。首先,對西北五省區(qū)1990~2012年的時間序列數(shù)據(jù)進行回歸,得出西北五省區(qū)碳排放總體趨勢;其次,對西北五省區(qū)碳排放峰值的出現(xiàn)時間與峰值額進行預(yù)測;最后,計算了西北五省區(qū)財富生態(tài)彈性。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):技術(shù)與財富對峰值的影響較為重要。若碳排放強度下降速度與經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展速度不能同步增長,則不能在2030年內(nèi)出現(xiàn)峰值。若碳排放強度降低速度相比經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展速度為快,則能推動碳排放提前達峰。同時現(xiàn)階段的財富生態(tài)彈性富有彈性,可通過增加人均GDP使碳排放峰值提前。因此可以在西北五省區(qū)經(jīng)濟增長下,保持碳排放強度合理下降,西北五省區(qū)將能在2030年之前達峰,達峰時間為2020~2025年。這意味著西北五省區(qū)經(jīng)濟增長速度將高于全國水平,而碳排放強度的下降速度要高于全國水平,因此,保持碳排放強度的不斷下降對西北五省區(qū)盡快達到碳排放峰值十分重要。
[Abstract]:The STIRPAT model is used to predict the peak of carbon emission in the five provinces of Northwest China. Firstly, the time series data from 1990 to 2012 are regressed to obtain the general trend of carbon emissions in the five northwest provinces. Secondly, the time and the peak value of the peak carbon emissions in the five northwest provinces are predicted. The ecological elasticity of wealth in five provinces of Northwest China is calculated. It is found that the influence of technology and wealth on peak value is more important. If the decreasing rate of carbon emission intensity and the speed of economic and social development can not increase simultaneously, it will not peak in 2030. If the reduction of carbon emission intensity is faster than that of economic and social development, it can promote carbon emissions to peak ahead of schedule. At the same time, the wealth ecological elasticity is elastic at present, and the peak of carbon emission can be advanced by increasing per capita GDP. Therefore, under the economic growth of the five provinces in Northwest China, the carbon emission intensity can be reduced reasonably, and the peak time will be 2020-2025 in the five northwest provinces before 2030. This means that the economic growth rate of the five northwest provinces and regions will be higher than the national level, and the decreasing rate of carbon emission intensity will be higher than the national level. Therefore, it is very important for the five northwest provinces to reach the peak of carbon emissions as soon as possible.
【作者單位】： 新疆大學(xué)經(jīng)濟與管理學(xué)院;新疆大學(xué)創(chuàng)新管理研究中心;新疆商貿(mào)經(jīng)濟學(xué)校;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目“資源型產(chǎn)業(yè)碳排放損益偏離分析與區(qū)域公平發(fā)展研究”(71463056);“資源型產(chǎn)業(yè)集群與制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)集群對區(qū)域經(jīng)濟增長方式影響路徑異同研究”(71263051) 新疆普通高等學(xué)校人文社會科學(xué)重點研究基地新疆大學(xué)創(chuàng)新管理研究中心一般項目“資源型產(chǎn)業(yè)損益偏離現(xiàn)象與多目標決策”(010115C07) 新疆大學(xué)博士創(chuàng)新基金項目“資源型產(chǎn)業(yè)碳排放經(jīng)濟收益與生態(tài)損害偏離形成機理——以新疆為例”(XJUBSCX-2014004)
【分類號】：X321

【相似文獻】

相關(guān)重要報紙文章 前1條

1 記者 呂晟君;我市排名第40 西北五省區(qū)第一[N];蘭州日報;2014年

，

本文編號：2150629