本文選題：IEUBK模型 + 本土化��； 參考：《中國(guó)人口·資源與環(huán)境》2016年02期

【摘要】：我國(guó)現(xiàn)階段重金屬污染引發(fā)的群體事件頻繁發(fā)生,其中鉛污染事件尤為突出和嚴(yán)重。鉛污染暴露對(duì)兒童健康損害的嚴(yán)重性、不可逆性以及鉛污染后果的積累性和潛伏性特點(diǎn),使得鉛暴露的環(huán)境健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估對(duì)中國(guó)的鉛污染防治具有重要意義。目前,國(guó)際上最常用的鉛污染暴露的兒童健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估模型是美國(guó)EPA開發(fā)的IEUBK模型。為使IEUBK模型在中國(guó)得到更好的應(yīng)用,本文首先對(duì)美國(guó)IEUBK模型系統(tǒng)做出如下本土化:1鑒于中國(guó)兒童的飲食結(jié)構(gòu)、生活習(xí)慣及暴露參數(shù)等方面與歐美兒童存在的差異,對(duì)IEUBK模型暴露模塊中的膳食模塊和土壤-灰塵模塊的數(shù)學(xué)模型進(jìn)行改進(jìn);2探討IEUBK模型中生理毒物代謝多隔室模型的高速精確的迭代算法。即針對(duì)生理毒物代謝多隔室模型的線性特征,通過離散化方法轉(zhuǎn)化為線性方程組,引進(jìn)中間變量,設(shè)計(jì)出了不需要進(jìn)行高階矩陣計(jì)算、存貯量較小、計(jì)算速度快且大樣本模擬計(jì)算時(shí)優(yōu)點(diǎn)明顯的模型求解的一次迭代算法;3根據(jù)改進(jìn)后的模型算法,編制模型的底層代碼程序,并優(yōu)化設(shè)計(jì)出友好的IEUBK模型系統(tǒng)中文輸入界面。接著,對(duì)本土化IEUBK模型系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行測(cè)試,測(cè)試結(jié)果表明:模型迭代算法的計(jì)算快速、結(jié)果準(zhǔn)確,輸入界面友好。然后,對(duì)本土化IEUBK模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示:本土化IEUBK模型的血鉛預(yù)測(cè)值與血鉛實(shí)測(cè)值的統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)差異并不顯著。因此,本土化的IEUBK模型可在中國(guó)推廣應(yīng)用。最后,本文探討了本土化的IEUBK模型系統(tǒng)的進(jìn)一步改進(jìn)方向及其在中國(guó)環(huán)評(píng)、環(huán)境標(biāo)準(zhǔn)制定及環(huán)境訴訟等方面的應(yīng)用。
[Abstract]:Heavy metal pollution caused by heavy metal pollution occurred frequently in China at present, among which lead pollution was especially prominent and serious. The environmental health risk assessment of lead exposure is of great significance to the prevention and control of lead pollution in China because of the severity irreversibility and accumulative and latent characteristics of lead exposure to children's health. At present, the most commonly used risk assessment model for children exposed to lead pollution is the IEUBK model developed by EPA. In order to get a better application of IEUBK model in China, this paper firstly makes the following localization of the American IEUBK model system: 1 in view of the differences of Chinese children's dietary structure, living habits and exposure parameters with those of European and American children. To improve the mathematical model of diet module and soil-dust module in exposure module of IEUBK model, the high speed and accurate iterative algorithm of multi-compartment model of physiological poison metabolism in IEUBK model is discussed. According to the linear characteristics of the multi-compartment model of physiological toxicant metabolism, the discrete method is used to transform the multicompartment model into a linear equation group. The intermediate variable is introduced, and the high order matrix calculation is not needed, and the storage amount is small. Based on the improved model algorithm, the model bottom code program is compiled, and the friendly Chinese input interface of IEUBK model system is optimized. Then, the local IEUBK model system is tested. The test results show that the model iteration algorithm is fast, accurate and friendly to input interface. Then, the empirical analysis of the localization IEUBK model shows that there is no significant difference between the predicted value of blood lead and the actual value of blood lead in the localization IEUBK model. Therefore, the localization IEUBK model can be popularized and applied in China. Finally, this paper discusses the direction of further improvement of the localization IEUBK model system and its application in environmental assessment, environmental standard formulation and environmental litigation in China.
【作者單位】： 中南財(cái)經(jīng)政法大學(xué)博士后流動(dòng)站;湖北經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)院;湖北水事研究中心;
【基金】：教育部人文社科青年項(xiàng)目“科學(xué)與法律融合下的環(huán)境健康監(jiān)管研究——以鉛污染為例”(編號(hào):14YJC820062) 環(huán)保部重大公益項(xiàng)目“環(huán)境鉛、鎘污染人群健康危害的法律監(jiān)管研究”(編號(hào):201109058) 教育廳人文社科項(xiàng)目“城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程中湖北省農(nóng)村面源污染控制研究”(編號(hào):14Q073)
【分類號(hào)】：X820.4
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本文編號(hào)：2065034