本文選題：重慶三峽庫區(qū) + 生態(tài)安全��； 參考：《重慶交通大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：三峽水庫是世界上最大的水利樞紐工程,2009年三峽大壩主體工程完成,并逐漸發(fā)揮綜合效益。然而,三峽工程可能引發(fā)的生態(tài)安全問題,仍然是一個亟待解決的問題。因此,解決好三峽庫區(qū)后續(xù)發(fā)展過程中的生態(tài)安全問題對于三峽工程的正常運行和功能發(fā)揮,促進庫區(qū)民眾與自然和諧相處,實現(xiàn)社會經(jīng)濟全面協(xié)調(diào)可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要的意義。本研究以重慶市三峽庫區(qū)后續(xù)發(fā)展為關(guān)注點,從制約三峽庫區(qū)生態(tài)安全后續(xù)發(fā)展的脅迫因子及脅迫機理入手,運用Vensim軟件,構(gòu)建生態(tài)安全系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,通過歷史數(shù)據(jù)和靈敏度分析對模型的可行性進行檢驗,在此基礎(chǔ)上進行不同情景設(shè)定和模擬,并以變權(quán)-物元分析模型為手段,進行動態(tài)預(yù)警評價。具體結(jié)果如下:(1)基于對三峽庫區(qū)的生態(tài)安全現(xiàn)狀的剖析,確定了三峽庫區(qū)生態(tài)安全后續(xù)發(fā)展的脅迫因子。根據(jù)脅迫因子的影響類型,將其分為地質(zhì)地貌條件、資源環(huán)境限制、社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展等方面,其中又具體包括水污染、大氣污染、固廢污染、水土流失、土地利用及經(jīng)濟發(fā)展等因子。(2)基于確定的重慶市三峽庫區(qū)脅迫因子及脅迫機理,利用Vensim軟件,構(gòu)建了三峽庫區(qū)后續(xù)發(fā)展系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,建立包括社會子系統(tǒng)、經(jīng)濟子系統(tǒng)和環(huán)境子系統(tǒng)在內(nèi)的系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,并通過了歷史行為檢驗和靈敏度檢驗,表明該模型是有效和可行的。(3)依據(jù)DPSIR模型的原理,從驅(qū)動力、壓力、狀態(tài)、影響、響應(yīng)五方面構(gòu)建了三峽庫區(qū)生態(tài)安全后續(xù)發(fā)展評價指標體系,并采用AHP法確定權(quán)重。對建立的模型設(shè)定了可持續(xù)發(fā)展型、自然狀態(tài)型和資源衰竭型等三種情景,并進行模擬,結(jié)果顯示:可持續(xù)發(fā)展型的模式是符合生態(tài)安全水平的發(fā)展模式。(4)運用變權(quán)-物元分析模型對重慶三峽庫區(qū)生態(tài)安全的預(yù)警等級進行了測度,建立了安全評價子系統(tǒng),警情預(yù)報子系統(tǒng)和決策管理子系統(tǒng)在內(nèi)的生態(tài)安全預(yù)警指標體系。測度結(jié)果表明:重慶三峽庫區(qū)的生態(tài)安全警度呈現(xiàn)較低的狀態(tài),庫區(qū)今后的生態(tài)環(huán)境保護工作中,要積極提高經(jīng)濟水平,同時適當控制人口增長,提高城鎮(zhèn)化率,實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展與生態(tài)保護的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:The three Gorges Reservoir is the largest water conservancy project in the world. In 2009, the main project of the three Gorges Dam was completed, and the comprehensive benefit was gradually brought into play. However, the ecological security problem caused by the three Gorges Project is still an urgent problem to be solved. Therefore, solving the problem of ecological security in the follow-up development of the three Gorges Reservoir area will bring the normal operation and function of the three Gorges Project into full play, and promote the people of the reservoir area to live in harmony with nature. It is of great significance to realize the overall coordinated and sustainable development of social economy. This study focuses on the follow-up development of the three Gorges Reservoir area in Chongqing, starting with the stress factors and the stress mechanism that restrict the subsequent development of ecological security in the three Gorges Reservoir area, and using Vensim software to build a dynamic model of ecological security system. The feasibility of the model is tested by historical data and sensitivity analysis. On this basis, different scenarios are set up and simulated, and dynamic early-warning evaluation is carried out by means of variable-weight matter-element analysis model. The specific results are as follows: (1) based on the analysis of the present situation of ecological security in the three Gorges Reservoir area, the stress factors for the subsequent development of the ecological security in the three Gorges Reservoir area are determined. According to the influence types of stress factors, they are divided into geological and geomorphological conditions, resource and environmental constraints, socio-economic development and other aspects, including water pollution, air pollution, solid waste pollution, soil erosion, etc. Based on the determined stress factors and the mechanism of stress in the three Gorges Reservoir area of Chongqing, the dynamic model of the subsequent development system of the three Gorges Reservoir area is constructed by using Vensim software, which includes the social subsystem. The model of system dynamics, including economic subsystem and environment subsystem, has passed the historical behavior test and sensitivity test, which shows that the model is effective and feasible, according to the principle of DPSIR model, from the driving force, pressure, state, influence. The evaluation index system of ecological security in the three Gorges reservoir area was constructed in five aspects, and the weight was determined by AHP method. The three scenarios of sustainable development, natural state and resource exhaustion are set up and simulated. The results show that the sustainable development model is a development model that accords with the level of ecological security. (4) by using the variable weight matter-element analysis model, the early warning level of ecological security in the three Gorges Reservoir area of Chongqing is measured, and a safety evaluation subsystem is established. Warning index system of ecological security, including warning subsystem and decision management subsystem. The results show that the ecological security alert of the three Gorges Reservoir area in Chongqing is low. In the future ecological environment protection in the reservoir area, we should actively improve the economic level, at the same time properly control the population growth and increase the urbanization rate. To realize the coordinated development of economic development and ecological protection.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X826

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