本文選題：機動車 + 排放清單　； 參考：《東北電力大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟的高速發(fā)展，人民生活質(zhì)量的提高，機動車數(shù)量逐年迅猛發(fā)展，從而使得機動車尾氣污染已經(jīng)成為大氣環(huán)境污染的一個重要部分，給環(huán)境治理工作帶來巨大挑戰(zhàn)。本研究基于省級尺度和城市尺度下，機動車排放清單編制方法論的不同，以廣東省和佛山市為研究區(qū)域，結(jié)合COPERT排放模型，以交管部門提供以及實地問卷調(diào)查的數(shù)據(jù)信息為基礎(chǔ)，分別采用年均行駛里程法和源強法計算了各自的機動車排放清單，并從各自不同的角度對清單進行了分析；最后利用蒙特卡羅統(tǒng)計方法對省級尺度和城市尺度的機動車排放不確定性進行了計算和分析。 對于廣東省機動車排放要素和清單，2006~2012年各車型機動車保有量都處于增長狀態(tài)，，其中珠三角地區(qū)輕型客車增長小于非珠三角地區(qū)，非珠三角地區(qū)摩托車增長速率大于珠三角地區(qū)；兩個地區(qū)的CO、VOC、NOX、PM2.5排放因子都有所下降，并且不同車型對應(yīng)的不同污染排放排放因子下降情況各有差異；2006~2012年珠三角地區(qū)的CO、VOC排放上升比例較慢，對于NOX和PM2.5，珠三角地區(qū)增長較快；珠三角地區(qū)在CO、VOC最大的貢獻車型是輕型客車和重型客車，非珠三角為摩托車和輕型客車，而對于NOX和PM2.5，兩個地區(qū)的重型客車、重型貨車和輕型貨車是最主要的貢獻車型。 本研究利用蒙特卡羅統(tǒng)計方法計算了廣東省2012年兩個地區(qū)的機動車排放清單不確定性。在不確定性范圍上，珠三角地區(qū)的機動車CO、VOC、NOX、PM2.5排放清單的不確定性范圍分別為[-53.62%,7.40%]、[-53.68%,78.98%]、[-66.97%,121.34%]、[-70.96%,131.01%]，非珠三角地區(qū)為[-87.85%,232.09%]、[-76.64%,192.91%]、[-54.30%,84.79%]、[-59.25%,89.45%]；在排放不確定性貢獻上，兩個地區(qū)CO、VOC、NOX、PM2.5排放不確定性貢獻最大的車型為輕型貨車和重型貨車。 對于城市尺度機動車排放清單，2012年，佛山市機動車CO、VOC、NOX、PM2.5分別排放了192334.59噸、34588.51噸、38527.33噸、1403.01噸。其中CO、VOC最大的車型來源是摩托車和輕型客車，NOX和PM2.5為重型車和公交車；在排放標準貢獻上，國0和國Ⅰ是主要的污染貢獻來源；佛山市的主干路和支路為CO、VOC、NOX、PM2.5排放的重要來源，高速路是NOX和PM2.5最主要的來源；佛山市一天內(nèi)機動車尾氣排放量的兩個高峰時段為7:00~9:00和17:00~19:00；在3*3(km)高分辨率的機動車排放特征中，CO和VOC的排放主要分布在城區(qū)，NOX和PM2.5分布在城區(qū)和國道、高速路上。 通過蒙特卡羅模擬，得到2012年佛山市機動車排放清單的不確定性， CO、VOC、NOX、PM2.5排放清單的不確定性范圍分別為[-62.58%，74.23%]、[-58.08%，63.85%]、[-55.45%，67.24%]、[-56.16%，66.32%]；其中CO、VOC、NOX、PM2.5排放不確定性貢獻最大的道路類型分別是國道、支路、次干路和主干路。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of Chinese economy and the improvement of people's quality of life, the number of motor vehicles has developed rapidly year by year. As a result, vehicle exhaust pollution has become an important part of atmospheric environmental pollution, which brings great challenges to the environmental control work. Based on the differences between provincial scale and urban scale, this study takes Guangdong Province and Foshan City as research areas and combines with COPERT emission model. Based on the data information provided by traffic control department and questionnaire survey, the average driving mileage method and source strength method are used to calculate the vehicle emission inventory, and the inventory is analyzed from different angles. At last, Monte Carlo statistical method is used to calculate and analyze the uncertainty of vehicle emission in provincial scale and city scale. For Guangdong Province, the emission factors and inventory of motor vehicles in 2006 ~ 2012 are in a state of growth. The growth of light passenger cars in the Pearl River Delta region is smaller than that in the non-Pearl River Delta region, and the growth rate of motorcycles in the non-Pearl River Delta region is higher than that in the Pearl River Delta region. In the two regions, the emission factors of NOX and PM2.5 decreased, and the decrease of different pollution emission factors was different from 2006 to 2012 in the Pearl River Delta. For NOX and PM2.5, the increase was faster in the Pearl River Delta region. The biggest contribution models in the Pearl River Delta region are light passenger cars and heavy passenger cars, and non-Pearl River Delta motorcycles and light passenger cars. For NOX and PM2.5, heavy trucks and light trucks are the most important contribution models. In this study, Monte Carlo statistical method was used to calculate the uncertainty of vehicle emission inventory in Guangdong province in 2012. In terms of uncertainty, the uncertainty ranges of the emission inventories of motor vehicle COVOC, NOX, PM2.5 in the Pearl River Delta region are [-53.622um 7.40%], [-53.68%, 78.98%], [-66.97%, 121.34%], [-70.966,131.01%], [-87.8585 / 232.09%], [-76.6440%], [-54.3084.79%], [-59.250.45%], respectively, in the area of non-PRD areas, [-76.64% 192.91%], [-54.30% 84.79%], [-59.250.25%]; in terms of the contribution of the uncertainty to emissions, [-77.85%], [-76.64%], [-54.30% 84.79%], [-59.25%], The largest contribution to the uncertainty over the emission of NOXP2.5 in two regions are light goods vehicles and heavy goods vehicles. For the urban scale inventory of motor vehicle emissions, in 2012, 192334.59 tons of motor vehicle COOVOCU NOXX PM2.5 were emitted from Foshan City, respectively, 34588.51 tons or 38527.33 tons or 1403.01 tons. The largest source of COCOC VOC is motorcycle and light passenger car, Nox and PM2.5 are heavy vehicles and buses; in the contribution of emission standards, Guo0 and GuoI are the main sources of pollution; and the main roads and branches in Foshan City are the important sources of COTOC NOXX PM2.5 emissions. Highway is the main source of NOX and PM2.5; The two peak periods of motor vehicle exhaust emissions in Foshan city are 7: 00: 9: 00 and 17: 00: 19: 00; in the high resolution vehicle emission characteristics, CO and VOC emissions are mainly distributed in urban areas, national roads and highways. Through Monte Carlo simulation, the uncertainty of vehicle emission inventory in Foshan City in 2012 is obtained. The uncertainty range of COVOC NOXX PM2.5 emission inventory is [-62.58%], [-58.08 + 63.85%], [-55.455,67.24%], [-56.1666.32%], respectively. Secondary and main roads.
【學位授予單位】：東北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X734.2

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