本文選題：大氣污染 + 時間序列��； 參考：《浙江工業(yè)大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著科技的不斷發(fā)展進步,人口數量的迅速增長,我們在促進生產水平、推進經濟的發(fā)展和提升生活水平的同時,也對環(huán)境造成的極大的傷害,環(huán)境污染問題也日益嚴重,環(huán)境成本也飛速增加。尤其是諸如現在的霧霾等城市大氣污染問題,給我們的身心健康和社會穩(wěn)定造成了嚴重的傷害。目前,各國人民對城市污染問題都給予了高度重視。本文在分析了湖州市如SO2、PM10和NO2等主要大氣污染物的相關特性,及其對人們所造成的損傷的基礎上,根據控制長久趨勢、“星期幾效應”和氣象因素等多因素影響,對湖州市的大氣污染物和人體健康的暴露-反應關系進行了剖析,并且利用時間序列半參數廣義相加模型(GAM),建立了年齡、性別和疾病類型的模型,對湖州市大氣污染所造成的市民健康損失情況進行了定量的評估。這一結果對于當地政府來說,為構建市民健康對大氣污染敏感預警制度、相應的應對措施以及對易感人群的保護工作有了相應的理論基礎。與此同時,研究成果還顯示：湖州市大氣污染物S02和PM1o濃度在研究期間,大致顯示一個逐年下降的態(tài)勢,且濕季低于干季,即夏秋低于冬春。高峰期出現在十二月到來年的五月左右,這表明PM10主要來自于春季的沙塵暴和冬季燃煤取暖的影響。冬季S02濃度相對較高,呈現典型的U型年變化趨勢,這表明S02主要來自冬季燃煤取暖的影響。而N02濃度的變化較為微小,無論是在年際變化、年變化還是季節(jié)變化,基本都表現為濕季低于干季。相關數據顯示,當SO2、PM10和N02的濃度增加時,福州市居民呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病日入院人數的危險性也相應增加。上述三種大氣污染物的濃度每增加10 pg/m3時,各類呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病日入院人數危險性的變化如下：呼吸系統(tǒng)疾病全人群的增長分別為0.7%、0.5%和3.4%；URTI全人群的增長分別為1.3%、0.7%和7.1%；患肺炎全人群的增長分別為1.6%、1.0%和8.1%；COPD全人群的增長分別為2.9%、0.3%和15.9%(注：PM10對COPD全人群的影響缺乏統(tǒng)計學意義)。在性別層面,女性受到大氣污染的影響較之男性要大。在年齡層面,針對COPD疾病,不到65歲人群所受影響明顯比大于65歲的影響要大,而針對URTI與肺炎疾病,大于65歲人群遭受的影響明顯大得多。同時我們也發(fā)現,湖州市大氣污染也在一定程度上影響著居民的心腦血管疾病日入院人數。當SO2、PM10和N02濃度每增加10 pg/m3,其各類人群日入院人數影響如下：心腦血管疾病人群會的增長分別為0.4%、0.5%和3%(注：S02和N02對心腦血管疾病全人群的影響缺乏統(tǒng)計學意義)；IHD全人群的增長分別為1.3%、1.1%和3%(注：N02對IHD全人群的影響缺乏統(tǒng)計學意義)；高血壓全人群會分別增長0.8%、1.8%和10.7%；腦卒中全人群增長分別為2.1%、1.3%和10.5%。針對IHD,大于65歲的人群會受到更大的影響,而針對高血壓和腦卒中疾病來說,不到65歲人群所遭受的危害更大些。本文研究顯示,湖州市大氣污染在一定程度上對人們的健康造成了傷害,居民患上呼吸系統(tǒng)和心腦血管疾病入院人數隨著大氣污染物濃度的增加而相應提升,而在疾病類型、性別和年齡層面表現出不同程度的差異性。
[Abstract]:With the continuous development and progress of science and technology, the rapid growth of population, while promoting the production level, promoting the economic development and improving the living standard, we have also caused great harm to the environment, the environmental pollution is becoming more and more serious, and the environmental cost is also increasing rapidly. There are serious injuries to our physical and mental health and social stability. At present, people of all countries have paid great attention to the problem of urban pollution. This paper analyses the related characteristics of major atmospheric pollutants such as SO2, PM10, and NO2, and the damage to people, such as SO2, PM10 and NO2. The exposure response relationship between air pollutants and human health in Huzhou was analyzed with the influence of many factors such as meteorological factors, and the model of age, sex and disease type was established by using the time series semi parametric generalized additive model (GAM), and the public health loss caused by air pollution in Huzhou was determined. At the same time, the results also showed that the concentration of S02 and PM1o in Huzhou's air pollution was roughly shown in the study period. A declining trend in the wet season is lower than the dry season, which is lower in summer and autumn than in winter and spring. The peak period appears from December to about May in the coming year. This indicates that PM10 mainly comes from the effects of dust storms in spring and the heating of coal burning in winter. In winter, the concentration of S02 is relatively high, showing a typical U annual change trend, which indicates that S02 mainly comes from coal burning in winter. The change in N02 concentration is relatively small, whether it is in the interannual, annual or seasonal changes, which basically show the wet season lower than the dry season. Related data show that when the concentration of SO2, PM10 and N02 increases, the risk of hospitalization for respiratory diseases in Fuzhou is also increased. The above three kinds of air pollutants are also increased. When the concentration increased by 10 pg/m3, the risk of daily hospitalization of various respiratory diseases was as follows: the growth of the whole population of respiratory system diseases was 0.7%, 0.5% and 3.4%, and the growth of URTI population was 1.3%, 0.7% and 7.1%, respectively, with the growth of 1.6%, 1% and 8.1% in the whole population of pneumonia, and the growth of the whole population of COPD was 2.9 respectively. %, 0.3%, and 15.9% (Note: the effect of PM10 on the whole population of COPD lacks statistical significance). At the gender level, women are more affected by air pollution than men. At the age level, the effect of the population under the age of 65 is significantly greater than that of the 65 years old for COPD disease, and the shadow of the URTI and pneumonia, which is greater than 65 years of age, is affected. At the same time, we also found that air pollution in Huzhou also affected the population of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases to a certain extent in Huzhou. When the concentration of PM10 and N02 increased by 10 pg/m3, the number of daily hospitalization was 0.4%, 0.5%, and 3% (S02 and N02, respectively). There was a lack of statistical significance for the whole population of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases; the growth of the whole IHD population was 1.3%, 1.1% and 3% respectively (Note: the effect of N02 on IHD was lacking); the whole population of hypertension increased by 0.8%, 1.8%, and 10.7%, and the increase in the whole population of stroke was 2.1%, 1.3% and 10.5%. for IHD, more than 65 years old. The study shows that air pollution in Huzhou has caused harm to people's health to some extent, and the population of residents with respiratory and cardio cerebrovascular diseases increases with the concentration of air pollutants, this study shows. There were differences in disease types, sex and age.

【學位授予單位】：浙江工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X51

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本文編號：1827943