發(fā)布時間：2018-04-09 22:02

  本文選題：濕地演變　切入點：驅(qū)動因子　出處：《中國水利水電科學(xué)研究院》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：濕地是地球表面的特殊自然綜合體,它對內(nèi)陸干旱地區(qū)的生態(tài)環(huán)境具有重要的意義。受自然和人文因素的影響,濕地在結(jié)構(gòu)及功能上不斷變化。近年來,隨著大規(guī)模土地開發(fā)以及全球變暖引起的氣候變化,我國濕地退化有加劇的趨勢。研究濕地的演變規(guī)律,分析濕地演變的驅(qū)動機制,確認(rèn)濕地各類驅(qū)動因子對濕地演變的影響程度,判斷濕地的演變趨勢,對保護(hù)濕地生態(tài)環(huán)境,促進(jìn)區(qū)域社會經(jīng)濟可持續(xù)發(fā)展,具有重要指導(dǎo)作用。本研究從自然和人文兩方面驅(qū)動因子出發(fā),結(jié)合遙感影像數(shù)據(jù)對濕地演化進(jìn)行分析。分析過程從濕地演化規(guī)律、濕地演化趨勢、濕地各驅(qū)動因子的貢獻(xiàn)程度等角度出發(fā),系統(tǒng)分析了內(nèi)陸濕地演化與其驅(qū)動因子之間的關(guān)系,并以敦煌西湖保護(hù)區(qū)濕地為例進(jìn)行了應(yīng)用。主要研究結(jié)果如下：(1)選取甘肅西北部的敦煌西湖國家級自然保護(hù)區(qū)為研究對象,利用遙感影像分別對西湖濕地年內(nèi)非冰封期的濕地水體分布和多年的濕地范圍演變進(jìn)行了解譯。對濕地年內(nèi)水體變化的分析表明,濕地水源來源于地下水(泉水溢出),濕地水體的分布與保護(hù)區(qū)內(nèi)的地下水動態(tài)有密切關(guān)系。濕地分布區(qū),春季因氣溫較低,潛水蒸發(fā)強度低,地下水水位處于高水位,泉水溢出量大,濕地因泉水補給而能保持較大的面積；到夏季氣溫升高,蒸發(fā)強烈,地下水水位下降,泉水溢出量衰減,導(dǎo)致濕地水體范圍萎縮；到秋季后,地下水水位逐步抬升,濕地水體也緩慢擴展。對濕地多年演化的分析表明,在1980～2013年間,保護(hù)區(qū)濕地面積從1.72×104 hm2減少到0.99×104 hm2,濕地退化趨勢明顯。同時,受保護(hù)區(qū)東部城市發(fā)展的影響,濕地還有著整體向西南緩慢移動的趨勢。(2)為分析濕地演化的各驅(qū)動因子對濕地演變的影響,本文從自然和人文兩方面分析了每個驅(qū)動因子與濕地演化間的關(guān)系。分析表明,在自然因子中,氣溫的升高會加劇濕地的退化；徑流量的變化并未對濕地的退化產(chǎn)生顯著影響；冰川面積的變化會通過影響地下水的變化來影響濕地的補給,而積雪則會通過產(chǎn)生徑流來影響濕地上游的徑流量；地下水位的持續(xù)下降造成濕地主要補給水源的減少,加速了濕地的退化。在人文因子中,人口和國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的增加使社會對水資源的需求不斷增大,耕地面積的擴大導(dǎo)致灌溉用水量的增加,這都加劇了濕地的退化。(3)在濕地演化的自然驅(qū)動因子中,冰川面積變化和高山冰雪融水對濕地的補給具有重要作用。本文利用π定理分析了冰川面積變化與氣候條件間的關(guān)系,通過將冰川面積與徑流量的變化對比發(fā)現(xiàn)二者間有較好的相關(guān)性。然后用融雪徑流模型(SRM模型)對保護(hù)區(qū)上游的冰雪融水進(jìn)行了模擬。同時考慮到雪蓋數(shù)據(jù)對SRM模擬精度的影響較大,在對雪蓋數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行遙感解譯的基礎(chǔ)上,利用π定理對雪蓋變化和氣候因素變化規(guī)律進(jìn)行了分析,建立了雪蓋面積變化函數(shù)。然后利用該函數(shù)計算得到逐日的雪蓋數(shù)據(jù),并帶入到SRM模型中再次進(jìn)行模擬,結(jié)果顯示模擬精度由0.84提高到了0.92,表明π定理有助于SRM模型模擬精度的提高。(4)在對濕地演化進(jìn)行單因子分析的基礎(chǔ)上,利用投影尋蹤方法對濕地和各因子的演變過程進(jìn)行分析,得到各因子的投影向量。投影向量的計算結(jié)果顯示,在選取的濕地演化因子中,耕地面積、地下水位、冰川面積、人口等因子的向量值最大,即其對濕地演變的貢獻(xiàn)值最大。根據(jù)投影向量最后計算出1980～2013年間各年的最佳投影值,據(jù)此來判斷各個年份濕地的退化程度,結(jié)果顯示在1980～2013年間有25個年份濕地處于快速退化的狀態(tài),7個年份處于嚴(yán)重退化狀態(tài)。(5)利用灰色系統(tǒng)理論對濕地演變的預(yù)測表明,在考慮未來的敦煌市水資源規(guī)劃中將壓縮耕地面積至2.41×104 hm2。利用GM(1,2)模型對西湖濕地未來10年變化的預(yù)測顯示,10年后濕地面積將減少至0.92×104 hm2,同時沙地、戈壁將稍有增加,濕地迅速退化的趨勢逐漸變緩。
[Abstract]:Wetland is a special natural complex of the earth's surface, it has important significance to the ecological environment. The inland arid areas affected by natural and human factors, the wetland changes in the structure and function. In recent years, with the large-scale land development and climate change caused by global warming, China's wetlands have exacerbated the trend. The study of the evolution of wetlands, wetland evolution analysis of driving mechanism, various driving factors confirm wetland on wetland evolution, evolution trend of wetland, the wetland ecological environment protection, promote regional economic and social sustainable development, has important guiding role. This study from two aspects of natural and human driving factors of remote sensing the image data of wetland evolution were analyzed. The analysis process from the evolution of wetland, wetland wetland evolution trend, each driving factor contribution degree angle And systematic analysis of inland wetland evolution and its driving factor relationship between, and to Dunhuang wetland conservation area in West Lake as an example of the application. The main results are as follows: (1) Dunhuang West Lake national selection of Northwest Gansu nature reserve as the research object, using the remote sensing images respectively on distribution and range of wetland wetland water for many years West Lake wetland frozen period of years of non evolution are interpreted. Analysis of the changes of water in wetland indicated that wetland water comes from groundwater (water overflow), there is a close relationship between wetland water distribution and protection zone of underground water dynamic. Wetland area in spring, due to low temperatures, phreatic evaporation is low. The groundwater level in high water level, water overflow volume, wetlands due to spring water supply and to maintain a larger area; the summer temperatures rise, evaporation, groundwater level drop, water spillage The range of water attenuation, which causes the wetland atrophy; to fall, the groundwater level gradually lifted, wetland water slowly expanded. According to the analysis of the evolution of wetland for many years, in 1980~2013 years, the wetland area from 1.72 * 104 hm2 reduced to 0.99 * 104 Hm2, wetland degradation trend obviously. At the same time, the protected area of Eastern influence the development of the city, there is a whole wetland to the southwest of slow moving trend. (2) the evolution of the driving influence factor analysis of wetland on wetland evolution, this paper analyzes the relationship between each factor and driving the wetland evolution from the two aspects of natural and human. The results show that, in the natural factors, the temperature rise will be degraded intensified wetland; runoff change did not have a significant impact on wetland degradation; changes in glacier area will be affected by the change of wetland effect of groundwater recharge, and will be produced by snow The runoff to influence the runoff in the upper reaches of the wetland; the underground water level continues to decline due to the reduction of wetland mainly supply water, accelerate the wetland degradation. In human factors, the increase of population and GDP of the social demand for water resources is increasing, the expansion of cultivated area caused by the increasing demand for irrigation, which intensified the wetland degradation. (3) in the evolution of wetland natural driving factors, changes in glacier area and mountain snow melt water supply to the wetland plays an important role. This paper analyzes the relationship between the theorem of glacier area change and climatic conditions of the glacier area between the two there is a good correlation between discovery and comparison the runoff. Then the snowmelt runoff model (SRM model) to protect the area of upper reaches of meltwater is simulated. Considering the influence of snow cover data on precision of SRM is large, in the Based on the interpretation of remote sensing data of snow cover, changes of snow cover and climate change factors were analyzed by using the theorem is established. Then the function changes of snow cover area is calculated by using the data of daily snow cover function, and brought into the SRM model again in the simulation, the results show that the simulation precision is improved from 0.84 to 0.92. The theorem shows that SRM model is helpful to the improvement of simulation accuracy. (4) in the wetland evolution based on single factor analysis, it analyzes the evolution of wetland and the factors by using the projection pursuit method, projection vector of each factor. The calculation results show the projection vector, in the evolution of selected wetland factors and the area of cultivated land, underground water, glacier area, population factor vector maximum, i.e. the maximum contribution to the evolution of wetland. According to the projection vector and finally calculate 1980~2013 years each year The best projection value to judge the degree of degradation of wetland each year, results showed that in 1980~2013 years there are 25 years in the rapid degradation of the wetland, the 7 year is in the serious degraded state. (5) to predict the evolution of wetland based on grey system theory shows that in the future will consider the Dunhuang city water resources planning land compression area to 2.41 * 104 hm2. by GM (1,2) prediction model of West Lake wetland in the next 10 years change showed that after 10 years the wetland area will be reduced to 0.92 * 104 hm2 at the same time, sandy, Gobi will be increased slightly, the wetland quickly back trend gradually slow.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國水利水電科學(xué)研究院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X36

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本文編號：1728332