本文選題：能源互聯(lián)網(wǎng)　切入點(diǎn)：電力行業(yè)　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：能源互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的概念是隨著全球能源和氣候問題這一實(shí)際情況被提出的,其骨干網(wǎng)架是特高壓電網(wǎng),基礎(chǔ)平臺(tái)是智能電網(wǎng)、輸送內(nèi)容是清潔能源,目的是實(shí)現(xiàn)能源輸送、調(diào)度、供應(yīng)的綠色化和智能化。電力行業(yè)一直以來貫徹都是創(chuàng)新、協(xié)調(diào)、綠色、開放的發(fā)展理念,自從能源互聯(lián)網(wǎng)概念被提出后,“共享理念”也已成為電力行業(yè)的共識(shí)。首先,文章介紹了國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者們對(duì)電力行業(yè)節(jié)低碳發(fā)展、低碳路徑研究和預(yù)測(cè)方法等文獻(xiàn)的研究的現(xiàn)狀。接著,文章詳細(xì)地介紹了能源互聯(lián)網(wǎng)相關(guān)理論、需求側(cè)管理相關(guān)理論、常用預(yù)測(cè)方法及情景分析法的理論基礎(chǔ)。文章第三部分從電源側(cè)、需求側(cè)和電網(wǎng)側(cè)三個(gè)角度分析了我國(guó)電力行業(yè)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀及面臨的問題。文章第四部分利用利用相關(guān)分析研究了電源側(cè)、需求側(cè)和電網(wǎng)側(cè)三個(gè)角度選擇的影響我國(guó)電力行業(yè)碳排放的因素,并依據(jù)這些因素利用嶺回歸分析法構(gòu)建了我國(guó)電力行業(yè)碳排放的預(yù)測(cè)模型,同時(shí),利用1995-2000年的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)我國(guó)電力行業(yè)碳排放的預(yù)測(cè)模型進(jìn)行了仿真分析,并對(duì)預(yù)測(cè)效果進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn),檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明本文構(gòu)建的電力行業(yè)碳排放預(yù)測(cè)模型的估計(jì)是顯著的。文章第五部分按照影響我國(guó)電力行業(yè)碳排放的因素,利用情景分析法設(shè)計(jì)了5條節(jié)能減排路徑,即鎖定路徑、電源結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化路徑、需求側(cè)優(yōu)化路徑、電網(wǎng)側(cè)優(yōu)化路徑和綜合優(yōu)化路徑,并利用層次分析法對(duì)5條路徑進(jìn)行了綜合評(píng)價(jià),選擇出最優(yōu)的我國(guó)電力行業(yè)發(fā)展是節(jié)能減排路徑——綜合優(yōu)化路徑。文章第六部分從電源側(cè)、需求側(cè)、電網(wǎng)側(cè)三個(gè)角度分別提出了對(duì)應(yīng)各個(gè)影響因素的政策建議,為保障我國(guó)電力行業(yè)節(jié)能減排最優(yōu)路徑的實(shí)現(xiàn)提供了相應(yīng)的政策保障。文章第七部分對(duì)本課題的研究結(jié)論進(jìn)行了總結(jié)和概括。
[Abstract]:The concept of energy Internet is put forward along with the global energy and climate problems. The backbone of the grid is UHV grid, the basic platform is smart grid, the content of transmission is clean energy, the purpose is to realize energy transmission and dispatch. The supply of green and intelligent. The electricity industry has been implementing innovation, coordination, green, open development concept, since the concept of energy Internet was proposed, "shared concept" has become a common understanding in the power industry. This paper introduces the current situation of domestic and foreign scholars' research on low-carbon development, low-carbon path research and prediction methods in power industry. Then, the paper introduces the related theories of energy Internet, demand side management, and so on. The theoretical basis of common prediction methods and scenario analysis. The third part of the article from the power side, This paper analyzes the current situation and problems of China's electric power industry from three angles of demand side and power side. Part 4th uses correlation analysis to study the power supply side. The factors that affect the carbon emission of power industry in China are selected from three angles of demand side and power grid side. According to these factors, the forecasting model of carbon emission of power industry in China is constructed by using ridge regression analysis method, and at the same time, Based on the relevant data from 1995 to 2000, the carbon emission prediction model of China's electric power industry is simulated and analyzed, and the effect of the prediction is tested. The test results show that the carbon emission prediction model constructed in this paper is significant. According to the factors affecting carbon emissions of power industry in China, in 5th, five energy saving and emission reduction paths are designed by scenario analysis. That is, lock path, power structure optimization path, demand side optimization path, grid side optimization path and integrated optimization path. Five paths are evaluated synthetically by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The optimal development of China's electric power industry is energy saving and emission reduction path-comprehensive optimization path. In 6th, the paper puts forward policy recommendations corresponding to each factor from three angles: power side, demand side and grid side, respectively. In order to guarantee the realization of the optimal path of energy saving and emission reduction in the electric power industry of our country, this paper provides the corresponding policy guarantee. Part 7th summarizes and generalizes the research conclusions of this subject.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：X322;F426.61

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