本文關(guān)鍵詞： 最優(yōu)插值 資料同化 PM.　出處：《氣候與環(huán)境研究》2016年06期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：基于觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)空間插值、數(shù)值模擬以及最優(yōu)插值同化方法構(gòu)建了京津冀地區(qū)PM2.5(空氣動(dòng)力學(xué)當(dāng)量直徑小于等于2.5μm的顆粒物,即細(xì)顆粒物)空間插值數(shù)據(jù)、模擬數(shù)據(jù)和同化數(shù)據(jù),并首次比較分析了三種數(shù)據(jù)在PM2.5污染回顧分析上的應(yīng)用潛力和優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)。針對(duì)2014年2月19~28日京津冀地區(qū)PM2.5污染過程的分析發(fā)現(xiàn):(1)觀測(cè)空間插值數(shù)據(jù)難以完整表征PM2.5污染的時(shí)空演變特征,在沒有觀測(cè)覆蓋區(qū)域誤差較大,容易出現(xiàn)虛假的高低值中心;(2)模擬數(shù)據(jù)具有較高時(shí)空分辨率,對(duì)PM2.5污染時(shí)空演變特征描述更加細(xì)致,但在這次污染過程中仍存在較大不確定性,其均方根誤差大于100μg/m3;(3)同化數(shù)據(jù)不僅能對(duì)PM2.5空間分布特征進(jìn)行細(xì)致描述,其數(shù)據(jù)精度在獨(dú)立驗(yàn)證站點(diǎn)也顯著高于模擬數(shù)據(jù),其均方根誤差比模擬數(shù)據(jù)低約50%,與站點(diǎn)觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)的相關(guān)系數(shù)也比模擬數(shù)據(jù)高0.2以上�；赑M2.5同化數(shù)據(jù),對(duì)這次京津冀PM2.5污染過程的時(shí)空演變特征進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)回顧分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)這次污染過程存在自京津冀南部PM2.5污染累積并向北輸送發(fā)展的生成特點(diǎn),消亡過程為風(fēng)向轉(zhuǎn)換下自北向南清除,造成京津冀南部城市先污染后清除,北部城市后污染先清除,并且有慢累積、快清除的特征。從發(fā)展演變過程中污染所占空間面積來看,25日PM2.5污染范圍最大,覆蓋模式第三區(qū)域60.5%面積。
[Abstract]:Based on the spatial interpolation of observation data, numerical simulation and optimal interpolation assimilation method, the spatial interpolation data, simulated data and assimilation data of PM2.5 (particle with aerodynamics equivalent diameter less than 2.5 渭 m) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are constructed. The application potential, advantages and disadvantages of three kinds of data in PM2.5 pollution retrospective analysis were compared and analyzed for the first time. Based on the analysis of PM2.5 pollution process in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area from February 2014 to 28th, it was found that the spatial interpolation data of the three kinds of data could not fully represent PM2.5. The temporal and spatial characteristics of pollution, The simulated data have higher spatial and temporal resolution and more detailed description of the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of PM2.5 pollution, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty in the process of this pollution. The root mean square error (RMS) is more than 100 渭 g / m ~ (3)) assimilation data can not only describe the spatial distribution characteristics of PM2.5 in detail, but also have a higher accuracy than simulation data at independent verification stations. The root mean square error is about 50% lower than the simulated data, and the correlation coefficient with the observed data is more than 0.2 higher than that of the simulated data. Based on the PM2.5 assimilation data, the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the PM2.5 pollution process in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are reviewed and analyzed in detail. It is found that the pollution process is characterized by accumulation of PM2.5 pollution from the southern part of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Province and its northward transport and development. The process of extinction is the removal from north to south under the change of wind direction, resulting in the first pollution and then the clean-up of the cities in the southern part of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. In 25th, the pollution area of PM2.5 was the largest, covering 60.5% area in the third region of the model.
【作者單位】： 中國科學(xué)院大氣物理研究所大氣邊界層物理與大氣化學(xué)國家重點(diǎn)試驗(yàn)室;中國科學(xué)院大學(xué);中國環(huán)境監(jiān)測(cè)總站;
【基金】：中國科學(xué)院戰(zhàn)略性先導(dǎo)科技專項(xiàng)XDB05030200 國家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目41575128、41305111~~
【分類號(hào)】：X513
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本文編號(hào)：1501581