本文關(guān)鍵詞： 碳排放權(quán)市場 碳排放權(quán)價(jià)格 影響因素 VEC模型　出處：《長沙理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著對(duì)氣候變化問題研究的不斷深入,碳排放權(quán)市場越來越受到各國政府及利益集團(tuán)的重視。在減少碳排放的過程中,作為市場驅(qū)動(dòng)力之一的碳排放權(quán)價(jià)格發(fā)揮著巨大的作用。它的波動(dòng)是多方面因素綜合影響導(dǎo)致的,碳排放權(quán)價(jià)格的典型特點(diǎn)是不確定性、非線性、動(dòng)態(tài)性等,本文從碳排放權(quán)價(jià)格的影響因素進(jìn)行分析討論。本文采用理論與實(shí)證相結(jié)合的研究方法,探討碳排放價(jià)格的影響因素。首先介紹了選題背景及研究意義,深入研究碳排放權(quán)價(jià)格的影響因素有著理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)雙重意義。然后界定了碳排放權(quán)及其相關(guān)的概念,緊跟著對(duì)碳排放權(quán)市場進(jìn)行分類,并從交易制度、交易方式、交易價(jià)格來對(duì)碳排放權(quán)市場進(jìn)行研究,在此基礎(chǔ)上探討了碳排放權(quán)市場的供求理論。再接著分析歐盟碳排放權(quán)交易市場和中國碳排放權(quán)交易市場的狀況,并對(duì)歐盟碳排放權(quán)價(jià)格的波動(dòng)特點(diǎn)進(jìn)行分析。由于歐盟碳交易市場是全球最大的碳市場,其交易量最大、價(jià)格最高,所以研究其價(jià)格的波動(dòng)特點(diǎn)具有代表性。并從其價(jià)格的波動(dòng)性來探討能源價(jià)格、工業(yè)生產(chǎn)、異質(zhì)性環(huán)境、政策因素等對(duì)碳排放權(quán)價(jià)格的影響。由于政策因素難以量化,本文接著對(duì)能源價(jià)格、工業(yè)生產(chǎn)、異質(zhì)性環(huán)境運(yùn)用協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、VEC模型、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)、方差分解等實(shí)證方法進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)在長期它們存在均衡的穩(wěn)定關(guān)系,能源價(jià)格、工業(yè)生產(chǎn)與碳排放權(quán)價(jià)格存在正相關(guān)關(guān)系,異質(zhì)性環(huán)境與碳排放權(quán)價(jià)格存在負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,且異質(zhì)性環(huán)境在長期對(duì)碳排放權(quán)價(jià)格影響程度最深。在短期能源價(jià)格對(duì)碳排放權(quán)價(jià)格產(chǎn)生的影響程度最大,其次是異質(zhì)性環(huán)境,雖然工業(yè)生產(chǎn)在短期對(duì)其沒有顯著地影響,但可能是由于碳排放權(quán)價(jià)格過低或者配額數(shù)量過于寬松,以至于企業(yè)在生產(chǎn)決策時(shí)對(duì)碳排放權(quán)價(jià)格的關(guān)注很低。最后根據(jù)以上的理論和實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果對(duì)平抑中國碳排放權(quán)價(jià)格波動(dòng)提出相應(yīng)的建議,從能源角度上來說應(yīng)該穩(wěn)定能源市場,提高能源使用效率,發(fā)展清潔能源；從工業(yè)生產(chǎn)角度來說,應(yīng)該大力發(fā)展第三產(chǎn)業(yè),改變高污染、高排放的發(fā)展模式,減少碳排放,降低碳排放權(quán)價(jià)格；從異質(zhì)性角度來講雖然經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)等無法控制,但是可以建立碳交易風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理體系,提高面對(duì)危機(jī)的能力,減少碳排放權(quán)價(jià)格劇烈波動(dòng)帶來的影響。
[Abstract]:With the development of the research on climate change, the market of carbon emission rights has been paid more and more attention by governments and interest groups. In the process of reducing carbon emissions, As one of the driving forces of the market, the price of carbon emission rights plays a great role. Its fluctuation is caused by a combination of many factors. The typical characteristics of carbon emission price are uncertainty, nonlinearity, dynamic and so on. In this paper, the influencing factors of carbon emission price are analyzed and discussed, and the influence factors of carbon emission price are discussed by combining theoretical and empirical research methods. Firstly, the background and significance of the research are introduced. It is of both theoretical and practical significance to deeply study the factors affecting the price of carbon emission rights. Then, it defines carbon emission rights and their related concepts, and then classifies the carbon emission rights market immediately, and from the trading system, trading methods, On the basis of the research on carbon emission rights market, the paper discusses the supply and demand theory of carbon emission rights market, and then analyzes the situation of European Union carbon emission rights trading market and China carbon emission rights trading market. This paper also analyzes the fluctuation characteristics of the price of carbon emission rights in the European Union. Because the carbon trading market in the EU is the largest carbon market in the world, its trading volume is the largest and the price is the highest. So it is representative to study its price fluctuation characteristics, and from its price volatility to explore the impact of energy price, industrial production, heterogeneous environment, policy factors on the price of carbon emission rights. Because the policy factors are difficult to quantify, This paper then tests the energy price, industrial production, heterogeneity environment using cointegration test / VEC model, Granger causality test, impulse response, variance decomposition and other empirical methods. The results show that there is a stable equilibrium relationship between them in the long run. There is a positive correlation between energy price, industrial production and carbon emission right price, and a negative correlation exists between heterogeneous environment and carbon emission right price. And heterogeneity environment has the most influence on carbon emission right price in the long run. In the short term, energy price has the greatest influence on carbon emission right price, followed by heterogeneity environment, although industrial production has no significant impact on carbon emission right price in the short term. But it could be because the price of carbon emissions is too low or quotas are too loose. Therefore, enterprises pay little attention to the price of carbon emission rights when they make production decisions. Finally, according to the above theoretical and empirical analysis results, the paper puts forward corresponding suggestions to stabilize the price fluctuation of carbon emission rights in China. From the energy point of view, we should stabilize the energy market, improve the efficiency of energy use, and develop clean energy. From the perspective of industrial production, we should vigorously develop the tertiary industry, change the development model of high pollution and high emissions, and reduce carbon emissions. Reducing the price of carbon emission rights; from the perspective of heterogeneity although the economic crisis can not be controlled but can establish a carbon trading risk management system to improve the ability to face the crisis reduce the impact of sharp fluctuations in carbon emissions rights price.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：長沙理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：X196

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 王白羽;張國林;;“此市場”是否解決“彼市場”的失靈?——對(duì)“碳市場”發(fā)展的再思考[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)體制比較;2014年01期

2 宣曉偉;張浩;;碳排放權(quán)配額分配的國際經(jīng)驗(yàn)及啟示[J];中國人口.資源與環(huán)境;2013年12期

3 鄭春梅;劉紅梅;;歐盟碳排放權(quán)價(jià)格波動(dòng)特征研究[J];時(shí)代金融;2013年32期

4 吳恒煜;胡根華;;國外碳排放交易問題研究述評(píng)[J];資源科學(xué);2013年09期

5 劉紀(jì)顯;張宗益;張印;;碳期貨與能源股價(jià)的關(guān)系及對(duì)我國的政策啟示——以歐盟為例[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家;2013年04期

6 張玉娟;何朝林;;碳排放權(quán)價(jià)格的影響因素分析[J];銅陵學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2013年01期

7 劉冠辰;田昆儒;李元禎;;歐美國家碳排放權(quán)交易價(jià)格問題研究綜述及其啟示[J];現(xiàn)代財(cái)經(jīng)(天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào));2012年12期

8 朱躍釗;陳紅喜;趙智敏;;基于B-S定價(jià)模型的碳排放權(quán)交易定價(jià)研究[J];科技進(jìn)步與對(duì)策;2013年05期

9 吳振信;萬埠磊;;基于GARCH簇模型的歐盟排放權(quán)配額價(jià)格波動(dòng)特征分析[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究參考;2012年63期

10 郭輝;郇志堅(jiān);;EUA和sCER碳排放期貨市場互動(dòng)關(guān)系及溢出效應(yīng)研究[J];統(tǒng)計(jì)與決策;2012年15期

，

本文編號(hào)：1495488