本文關鍵詞： 碳排放權市場 碳排放權價格 影響因素 VEC模型　出處：《長沙理工大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：隨著對氣候變化問題研究的不斷深入,碳排放權市場越來越受到各國政府及利益集團的重視。在減少碳排放的過程中,作為市場驅動力之一的碳排放權價格發(fā)揮著巨大的作用。它的波動是多方面因素綜合影響導致的,碳排放權價格的典型特點是不確定性、非線性、動態(tài)性等,本文從碳排放權價格的影響因素進行分析討論。本文采用理論與實證相結合的研究方法,探討碳排放價格的影響因素。首先介紹了選題背景及研究意義,深入研究碳排放權價格的影響因素有著理論和現(xiàn)實雙重意義。然后界定了碳排放權及其相關的概念,緊跟著對碳排放權市場進行分類,并從交易制度、交易方式、交易價格來對碳排放權市場進行研究,在此基礎上探討了碳排放權市場的供求理論。再接著分析歐盟碳排放權交易市場和中國碳排放權交易市場的狀況,并對歐盟碳排放權價格的波動特點進行分析。由于歐盟碳交易市場是全球最大的碳市場,其交易量最大、價格最高,所以研究其價格的波動特點具有代表性。并從其價格的波動性來探討能源價格、工業(yè)生產(chǎn)、異質性環(huán)境、政策因素等對碳排放權價格的影響。由于政策因素難以量化,本文接著對能源價格、工業(yè)生產(chǎn)、異質性環(huán)境運用協(xié)整檢驗、VEC模型、格蘭杰因果檢驗、脈沖響應、方差分解等實證方法進行檢驗,結果發(fā)現(xiàn)在長期它們存在均衡的穩(wěn)定關系,能源價格、工業(yè)生產(chǎn)與碳排放權價格存在正相關關系,異質性環(huán)境與碳排放權價格存在負相關關系,且異質性環(huán)境在長期對碳排放權價格影響程度最深。在短期能源價格對碳排放權價格產(chǎn)生的影響程度最大,其次是異質性環(huán)境,雖然工業(yè)生產(chǎn)在短期對其沒有顯著地影響,但可能是由于碳排放權價格過低或者配額數(shù)量過于寬松,以至于企業(yè)在生產(chǎn)決策時對碳排放權價格的關注很低。最后根據(jù)以上的理論和實證分析的結果對平抑中國碳排放權價格波動提出相應的建議,從能源角度上來說應該穩(wěn)定能源市場,提高能源使用效率,發(fā)展清潔能源；從工業(yè)生產(chǎn)角度來說,應該大力發(fā)展第三產(chǎn)業(yè),改變高污染、高排放的發(fā)展模式,減少碳排放,降低碳排放權價格；從異質性角度來講雖然經(jīng)濟危機等無法控制,但是可以建立碳交易風險管理體系,提高面對危機的能力,減少碳排放權價格劇烈波動帶來的影響。
[Abstract]:With the development of the research on climate change, the market of carbon emission rights has been paid more and more attention by governments and interest groups. In the process of reducing carbon emissions, As one of the driving forces of the market, the price of carbon emission rights plays a great role. Its fluctuation is caused by a combination of many factors. The typical characteristics of carbon emission price are uncertainty, nonlinearity, dynamic and so on. In this paper, the influencing factors of carbon emission price are analyzed and discussed, and the influence factors of carbon emission price are discussed by combining theoretical and empirical research methods. Firstly, the background and significance of the research are introduced. It is of both theoretical and practical significance to deeply study the factors affecting the price of carbon emission rights. Then, it defines carbon emission rights and their related concepts, and then classifies the carbon emission rights market immediately, and from the trading system, trading methods, On the basis of the research on carbon emission rights market, the paper discusses the supply and demand theory of carbon emission rights market, and then analyzes the situation of European Union carbon emission rights trading market and China carbon emission rights trading market. This paper also analyzes the fluctuation characteristics of the price of carbon emission rights in the European Union. Because the carbon trading market in the EU is the largest carbon market in the world, its trading volume is the largest and the price is the highest. So it is representative to study its price fluctuation characteristics, and from its price volatility to explore the impact of energy price, industrial production, heterogeneous environment, policy factors on the price of carbon emission rights. Because the policy factors are difficult to quantify, This paper then tests the energy price, industrial production, heterogeneity environment using cointegration test / VEC model, Granger causality test, impulse response, variance decomposition and other empirical methods. The results show that there is a stable equilibrium relationship between them in the long run. There is a positive correlation between energy price, industrial production and carbon emission right price, and a negative correlation exists between heterogeneous environment and carbon emission right price. And heterogeneity environment has the most influence on carbon emission right price in the long run. In the short term, energy price has the greatest influence on carbon emission right price, followed by heterogeneity environment, although industrial production has no significant impact on carbon emission right price in the short term. But it could be because the price of carbon emissions is too low or quotas are too loose. Therefore, enterprises pay little attention to the price of carbon emission rights when they make production decisions. Finally, according to the above theoretical and empirical analysis results, the paper puts forward corresponding suggestions to stabilize the price fluctuation of carbon emission rights in China. From the energy point of view, we should stabilize the energy market, improve the efficiency of energy use, and develop clean energy. From the perspective of industrial production, we should vigorously develop the tertiary industry, change the development model of high pollution and high emissions, and reduce carbon emissions. Reducing the price of carbon emission rights; from the perspective of heterogeneity although the economic crisis can not be controlled but can establish a carbon trading risk management system to improve the ability to face the crisis reduce the impact of sharp fluctuations in carbon emissions rights price.
【學位授予單位】：長沙理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X196

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