本文關鍵詞： 系統(tǒng)動力學 仿真模型 生態(tài)縣建設規(guī)劃 通道縣　出處：《湖南農(nóng)業(yè)大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：本文以湖南省通道侗族自治縣為例,運用系統(tǒng)動力學方法建立了包含人口、經(jīng)濟、資源利用、環(huán)境保護4個子系統(tǒng)的系統(tǒng)動力學仿真模型,通過仿真模擬探索當前最適宜通道縣發(fā)展的生態(tài)縣建設方案。主要研究結論如下：1、運用層次分析法構建了包含經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、生態(tài)環(huán)境保護、社會進步三個方面共27個指標的可持續(xù)發(fā)展評價指標體系；2、運用模型對通道縣2003-2013年縣域發(fā)展情況進行模擬,選取總人口、GDP總量以及固定資產(chǎn)總投資為檢驗對象。結果顯示：仿真預測值與實際統(tǒng)計值吻合度較高,兩者相對誤差控制在3.32%范圍之內,表明模型擬合性較好,可用于模擬與預測；3、對上述模型進行靈敏度分析,結果表明,人口自然增長率、固定資產(chǎn)總投資增長率、工業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)投資比例、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)投資比例、環(huán)保投資比例、耕地減少率、森林砍伐率、沼氣池增加率8個參數(shù)對系統(tǒng)影響比較顯著。對這8個參數(shù)進行調控形成了4種發(fā)展模式：自然發(fā)展模式、快速發(fā)展模式、環(huán)境保護發(fā)展模式、協(xié)調發(fā)展模式；4、對四種模式進行仿真模擬,結果顯示：模式Ⅳ(協(xié)調發(fā)展模式)各項指標值、指標變化趨勢以及系統(tǒng)可持續(xù)發(fā)展度均優(yōu)于其他模式,為通道縣當前生態(tài)縣建設的最佳規(guī)劃方案。該模式下人口增長率約5.6%o-6.0%o,固定資產(chǎn)投資增速約29%,工業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)投資比例約0.36～0.37,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)固定資產(chǎn)投資比例約0.39～0.40,環(huán)保投資比例約0.04,耕地減少率約0.012,森林砍伐率約0.009,沼氣池增加率約0.039。
[Abstract]:Taking Dong Autonomous County of Hunan Province as an example, the simulation model of system dynamics including population, economy, resource utilization and environmental protection is established by using system dynamics method. Through simulation and simulation to explore the most suitable for the development of ecological county construction program. The main conclusions are as follows: 1, the use of analytic hierarchy process to construct the economic development, ecological environment protection. The sustainable development evaluation index system of 27 indexes in three aspects of social progress; 2. Use the model to simulate the county development from 2003 to 2013, and select the total population. The total amount of GDP and the total investment of fixed assets are tested. The results show that the simulation prediction value is in good agreement with the actual statistical value, and the relative error between them is controlled in the range of 3.32%. It shows that the model fits well and can be used for simulation and prediction. 3. The sensitivity analysis of the above model shows that the natural population growth rate, the total investment growth rate of fixed assets, the proportion of industrial fixed assets investment, the proportion of investment in fixed assets of tertiary industry, and the proportion of investment in environmental protection. The eight parameters of cultivated land reduction rate, forest deforestation rate and biogas digester increase rate had a significant effect on the system. Four development models were formed by adjusting the eight parameters: natural development model and rapid development model. Environmental protection development model, coordinated development model; 4. The four models are simulated, the results show that the index values of mode 鈪，

本文編號：1463670