本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于改進型生態(tài)足跡的武隆縣生態(tài)安全評價與預測研究　出處：《重慶工商大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 生態(tài)安全 生態(tài)足跡 生態(tài)容量 灰色預測 調(diào)控措施

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟的快速發(fā)展、人口的增長以及消費模式的轉(zhuǎn)變等使人類對自然生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的需求越來越大,由此引起的資源約束趨緊、環(huán)境污染以及生態(tài)退化等問題制約著我國經(jīng)濟社會的發(fā)展。如何量化人類經(jīng)濟社會活動對生態(tài)環(huán)境的影響受到廣泛關(guān)注。生態(tài)足跡理論能夠衡量區(qū)域人類社會經(jīng)濟活動對自然資源的消耗狀況以及生態(tài)系統(tǒng)所能提供的服務功能大小,從而可評價區(qū)域生態(tài)安全狀況并為其生態(tài)建設提供建議。在此背景下,本文在研究國內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻的基礎(chǔ)上,以生態(tài)安全、生態(tài)足跡理論為指導,對武隆縣生態(tài)安全進行評價與預測,以期為武隆縣可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供科學依據(jù)。本文首先通過計算全球平均產(chǎn)量、劃分武隆縣畜產(chǎn)品生態(tài)生產(chǎn)性土地歸屬以及對化石能源地生態(tài)足跡計算方法進行改進(基于碳循環(huán)計算化石能源的生態(tài)足跡)等手段使生態(tài)足跡、生態(tài)容量及生態(tài)盈余/赤字計算結(jié)果更能反映武隆縣的實際生態(tài)安全狀況。其次,本文利用改進的生態(tài)足跡模型計算武隆縣2009-2013年的生態(tài)足跡、生態(tài)容量及生態(tài)盈余/赤字,對武隆縣的生態(tài)安全進行分析評價。結(jié)果表明:2009-2013年武隆縣的各類生態(tài)足跡逐年增加,且主要來源于化石能源地和可耕地,大小順序為:化石能源地可耕地建成地林地水域;2009-2013年武隆縣各類生態(tài)容量也呈上升階段,其中可耕地和森林占絕大部分,大小順序為:可耕地化石能源地林地水域;2009-2013年武隆縣整體生態(tài)安全尚處于生態(tài)盈余狀態(tài),從結(jié)構(gòu)上來看,武隆縣在可耕地、林地和化石能源地三項上有盈余,在牧草地、水域和建成地上存在生態(tài)赤字。在此基礎(chǔ)上,利用灰色預測模型對武隆縣2014-2023年的態(tài)足跡、生態(tài)容量及生態(tài)盈余/赤字進行動態(tài)預測,對武隆縣未來的生態(tài)安全演化趨勢進行了評價與分析。研究結(jié)果表明:武隆縣未來10年的整體生態(tài)狀況仍然是安全的,但是化石能源地、水域等將出現(xiàn)生態(tài)赤字;雖然整體上是安全的,但是生態(tài)盈余逐年減少,大約在2026年武隆縣整體上將可能出現(xiàn)生態(tài)赤字;武隆縣2014-2023年的生態(tài)足跡明顯逐年增加,年平均增長率達5.1%,生態(tài)容量(其中可耕地、水域及林地生態(tài)容量逐年增加,牧草地和森林生態(tài)容量基本保持不變)也逐年增加,年平均增長率為1.54%(小于生態(tài)足跡的年增長率),不利于武隆縣生態(tài)安全及可持續(xù)發(fā)展。最后,本文探討了武隆縣生態(tài)安全現(xiàn)狀及存在的問題,為實現(xiàn)武隆縣經(jīng)濟、社會的持續(xù)健康發(fā)展,提出相應調(diào)控措施:減少化石能源消費,保護森林;增加農(nóng)產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量,減少建設用地。另外,還從武隆縣自然生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的角度出發(fā)提出相關(guān)生態(tài)安全調(diào)控措施。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, the growth of population and the change of consumption pattern, the demand for natural ecosystem is increasing, and the resource constraints are becoming more and more tight. Environmental pollution and ecological degradation restrict the economic and social development of our country. How to quantify the impact of human economic and social activities on the ecological environment has received extensive attention. Ecological footprint theory can measure the regional human social economy. The consumption of natural resources by economic activities and the size of the services provided by ecosystems. Therefore, we can evaluate the status of regional ecological security and provide suggestions for its ecological construction. Under this background, this paper based on the study of relevant literature at home and abroad, based on ecological security, ecological footprint theory as a guide. The ecological security of Wulong County is evaluated and forecasted in order to provide scientific basis for sustainable development of Wulong County. The classification of ecological productive land of animal products in Wulong County and the improvement of the calculation method of ecological footprint of fossil energy land (based on carbon cycle calculation of ecological footprint of fossil energy) are carried out to make the ecological footprint. Ecological capacity and ecological surplus / deficit calculation results can better reflect the actual ecological security of Wulong County. Secondly, this paper uses the improved ecological footprint model to calculate the ecological footprint of Wulong County from 2009 to 2013. The ecological capacity and ecological surplus / deficit of Wulong County were analyzed and evaluated. The results showed that the ecological footprint of Wulong County increased year by year from 2009 to 2013. And it mainly comes from fossil energy land and arable land, the order of size is: the forest land water area of the completed land of fossil energy land; In 2009-2013, the ecological capacity of all kinds of Wulong County also showed an increasing stage, in which arable land and forest accounted for the majority, the order was: arable land, fossil energy land forest waters; From 2009 to 2013, the overall ecological security of Wulong County is still in the state of ecological surplus. From a structural point of view, Wulong County has surplus in arable land, forest land and fossil energy land, and in pasture land. On the basis of this, the dynamic prediction of the state footprint, ecological capacity and ecological surplus / deficit of Wulong County from 2014-2023 was carried out by using grey forecasting model. The evolution trend of ecological security in Wulong County is evaluated and analyzed. The results show that the overall ecological situation of Wulong County in the next 10 years is still safe, but fossil energy land. There will be ecological deficits in the waters and so on; Although it is safe on the whole, the ecological surplus is decreasing year by year, and in 2026, Wulong County as a whole will probably have ecological deficit. The ecological footprint of Wulong County in 2014-2023 was obviously increased year by year, the annual average growth rate was 5.1, ecological capacity (including arable land, water area and woodland ecological capacity) increased year by year. The annual average growth rate is 1.54 (less than the annual growth rate of ecological footprint), which is not conducive to the ecological security and sustainable development of Wulong County. This paper discusses the present situation and existing problems of ecological security in Wulong County. In order to realize the sustainable and healthy development of the economy and society of Wulong County, the corresponding control measures are put forward: reducing the consumption of fossil energy and protecting the forest; In addition, from the point of view of the natural ecosystem of Wulong County, the relevant ecological security control measures are put forward.
【學位授予單位】：重慶工商大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X826

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