本文關(guān)鍵詞：港區(qū)船舶溢油風(fēng)險評價研究　出處：《大連海事大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 港區(qū)船舶 溢油 風(fēng)險 模糊綜合評價

【摘要】：隨著全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的快速發(fā)展,世界各個國家之間的貿(mào)易往來越來越頻繁,對石油能源及其相關(guān)產(chǎn)品的需求也急劇增加。海上石油運輸在石油運輸中占有至關(guān)重要的地位,為了滿足石油運輸量的迅速增加,伴隨著航運業(yè)的快速發(fā)展,船舶數(shù)量的迅速增加,船舶大型化、快速化的不斷發(fā)展,種種因素使船舶石油運輸環(huán)境面臨更加復(fù)雜的問題,導(dǎo)致船舶溢油事故風(fēng)險也隨之增大。海上溢油事故越來越多,嚴(yán)重危害了海洋生態(tài)和經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境,成為海洋污染最為主要的來源之一。對于船舶發(fā)生溢油事故的事前評估顯得尤為重要,預(yù)防船舶發(fā)生溢油事故的風(fēng)險管理措施,以及發(fā)生溢油事故后的應(yīng)急體系建立刻不容緩。本文利用風(fēng)險評價理論及方法,在國內(nèi)外船舶溢油事故調(diào)查的基礎(chǔ)上,對港區(qū)船舶溢油事故的類型和風(fēng)險特征進(jìn)行分析和總結(jié),考慮影響船舶溢油事故的風(fēng)險因素,對風(fēng)險源進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)、全面的識別,根據(jù)風(fēng)險指標(biāo)體系的建立原則,建立溢油可能性風(fēng)險指標(biāo)體系和溢油危害后果指標(biāo)體系。根據(jù)專家評分法確定風(fēng)險指標(biāo)的相對重要性,利用層次分析法計算指標(biāo)的權(quán)重,為制定防范措施提供依據(jù),再結(jié)合隸屬度函數(shù)確定的評價標(biāo)準(zhǔn),建立船舶溢油風(fēng)險多層次模糊綜合評價模型,最后計算出溢油風(fēng)險等級并進(jìn)行定性分析。利用概率和統(tǒng)計原理預(yù)測船舶溢油事故發(fā)生的可能性,最終得出溢油風(fēng)險概率,并估算出溢油量。最后以大石化港區(qū)為例,計算該港區(qū)的溢油風(fēng)險綜合值,確定溢油風(fēng)險等級,并估算出該港的溢油概率和溢油量。根據(jù)評價結(jié)果,提出溢油風(fēng)險防范措施和風(fēng)險管理建議,提高港區(qū)船舶突發(fā)溢油事故的管理能力和應(yīng)急反應(yīng)處理能力,保護(hù)港區(qū)周圍海洋生態(tài)環(huán)境,促進(jìn)海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)健康可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of global economic integration, the trade between countries in the world is becoming more and more frequent. The demand for petroleum energy and related products is also increasing rapidly. Oil transportation by sea plays an important role in oil transportation. In order to meet the rapid increase of oil transportation volume, with the rapid development of shipping industry. With the rapid increase of the number of ships, the large and rapid development of ships, various factors make the environment of shipping oil transportation face more complex problems. As a result, the risk of oil spills from ships increases, and more and more oil spills occur at sea, which seriously harms the marine ecological and economic environment. As one of the most important sources of marine pollution, it is very important to evaluate the oil spill accident in advance, and the risk management measures to prevent the oil spill accident. It is urgent to establish the emergency system after the oil spill accident. This paper uses the risk assessment theory and method on the basis of the investigation of the oil spill accident at home and abroad. This paper analyzes and summarizes the types and risk characteristics of marine oil spill accidents in port area, considers the risk factors that affect the oil spill accidents, systematically and comprehensively identifies the risk sources, and establishes the principles of risk index system. The risk index system of oil spill possibility and the index system of oil spill hazard consequence were established. The relative importance of the risk index was determined by expert scoring method, and the weight of the index was calculated by analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In order to provide the basis for making preventive measures and combined with the evaluation criteria determined by membership function, the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of ship oil spill risk is established. Finally, the oil spill risk grade is calculated and analyzed qualitatively. The probability of oil spill accident is predicted by using the probability and statistics principle, and the probability of oil spill risk is finally obtained. Finally, taking the oil spill risk of the port area as an example, the comprehensive value of the oil spill risk in the port area is calculated, the grade of the oil spill risk is determined, and the oil spill probability and the oil spill amount of the port are estimated according to the evaluation results. The paper puts forward the preventive measures and risk management suggestions to improve the management ability and emergency response ability of ships in port area to protect the marine ecological environment around the port area. To promote the healthy and sustainable development of the marine economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連海事大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：X55;X82

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本文編號：1377258