【摘要】：在持續(xù)增長的客貨運運量需求之下,航班起降架次也在不斷攀升,而大多數(shù)機場管理者則更注重于機場的發(fā)展,忽視了對安全的承諾和責任,這將會在不遠的將來導致機場的保障能力短缺或擁堵,不安全事件和事故頻發(fā),機場的發(fā)展受到阻礙,造成安全與發(fā)展的不協(xié)調(diào)現(xiàn)象。因此,為了實現(xiàn)機場的持續(xù)安全發(fā)展,需要對機場安全與發(fā)展復雜的動態(tài)關(guān)系進行探究,對其未來的發(fā)展狀態(tài)進行預測和分析,需要構(gòu)建一個科學合理的決策模型來為機場管理者進行決策時提供參考和依據(jù)。機場持續(xù)安全與發(fā)展系統(tǒng)涉及眾多相互作用且關(guān)系復雜的變量,是個動態(tài)反饋系統(tǒng),可以利用系統(tǒng)動力學的方法對此類問題進行研究。應用系統(tǒng)原理和思想,對機場持續(xù)安全與發(fā)展系統(tǒng)的動態(tài)反饋機制進行分析,選用“成長與投資不足”基模,構(gòu)建了系統(tǒng)基模。在分析機場運營、能力和安全3個子系統(tǒng)的主要因素和因素間的因果反饋關(guān)系基礎上,運用Vensim PLE建模工具建立了該系統(tǒng)的因果反饋關(guān)系圖和系統(tǒng)動力學流圖,構(gòu)建了機場持續(xù)安全與發(fā)展的決策模型。選取了C機場的客觀實際數(shù)據(jù),對模型參數(shù)進行修正并賦值,并對模型進行了檢驗,仿真模擬結(jié)果表明2015年左右C機場保障能力將基本達到飽和,安全狀態(tài)超出容許范圍,阻礙了機場的發(fā)展,需要采取措施來協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展和安全的問題。通過調(diào)節(jié)運營目標增長率和安全目標,設置了平衡增長和積極增長以及基礎模擬3種決策方案,模擬仿真結(jié)果表明:機場的運營目標和安全目標可以改變機場未來的發(fā)展方式,平衡增長方案更適合作為改變機場未來發(fā)展方式的決策,使管理者能夠協(xié)調(diào)安全和發(fā)展二者的關(guān)系,實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)的增長;積極增長方式中管理者對運營的投入超過了對安全的投入,實現(xiàn)了短期增長,但最終仍出現(xiàn)了安全狀態(tài)較差以致發(fā)展受阻現(xiàn)象。3種方式分別給予了管理者在制定決策時的參考和依據(jù),應參考平衡增長方案,不可只顧眼前利益。
[Abstract]:Flight take-offs and landings are also rising amid growing demand for passenger and cargo traffic, while most airport managers are more focused on airport development, ignoring commitments and responsibilities for safety. In the near future, this will lead to a shortage or congestion of airport support capacity, frequent incidents of insecurity and accidents, hindering the development of the airport, and resulting in an incongruous phenomenon between security and development. Therefore, in order to realize the sustained security development of the airport, it is necessary to explore the complex dynamic relationship between airport security and development, and to predict and analyze the future development state of the airport. It is necessary to construct a scientific and reasonable decision model to provide reference and basis for airport managers to make decisions. The airport continuous security and development system, which is a dynamic feedback system, involves a lot of interactive and complex variables, and can be studied by the method of system dynamics. In this paper, the dynamic feedback mechanism of airport sustainable security and development system is analyzed based on the principle and idea of the system, and the basic model of "growth and underinvestment" is selected to construct the basic model of the system. Based on the analysis of the main factors and the causal feedback relationship among the three subsystems of airport operation, capability and security, the causal feedback diagram and the system dynamics flow diagram of the system are established by using Vensim PLE modeling tool. The decision model of airport sustainable security and development is constructed. The objective actual data of C airport are selected, the model parameters are modified and evaluated, and the model is tested. The simulation results show that the security state of C airport will reach saturation and the security state will exceed the allowable range in 2015 or so. This hinders the development of the airport, and measures need to be taken to coordinate development and security issues. By adjusting the growth rate of operation target and safety target, three kinds of decision-making schemes, namely balanced growth and positive growth and basic simulation, are set up. The simulation results show that the airport operation target and security goal can change the future development mode of airport. The balanced growth scheme is more suitable as a decision to change the future development mode of the airport, so that the manager can coordinate the relationship between security and development to achieve sustainable growth; In the positive growth mode, managers invest more in operation than in safety, and achieve short-term growth. However, in the end, the security situation is poor and the development is blocked. The three methods give managers the reference and basis in making the decision, and should refer to the balanced growth plan, not only the immediate interests.
【學位授予單位】：中國民航大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：V351

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