本文關(guān)鍵詞：高速鐵路對(duì)民航客運(yùn)的影響分析　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 閾值回歸模型 高速鐵路 民航客運(yùn) 競(jìng)爭 空鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)

【摘要】：近年來,我國大力發(fā)展高鐵建設(shè)。國務(wù)院在2004年1月通過《中長期鐵路網(wǎng)規(guī)劃》。2008年,鐵道部又根據(jù)國務(wù)院批準(zhǔn)的《綜合交通網(wǎng)中長期發(fā)展規(guī)劃》對(duì)《中長期鐵路網(wǎng)規(guī)劃》做了進(jìn)一步的調(diào)整。從一定程度上講,高鐵緩解了鐵路運(yùn)輸壓力,帶動(dòng)了沿路地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。但是自從高鐵正式投入運(yùn)營以來,憑借其高準(zhǔn)點(diǎn)率、高速、安全等優(yōu)勢(shì)對(duì)民航客運(yùn)造成了巨大的沖擊。由于各地高鐵的開通使得民航的上座率急劇下跌,所占市場(chǎng)份額也在不斷縮小,甚至有的航班被迫停飛。比如鄭西高鐵開通后,運(yùn)行時(shí)間為兩個(gè)小時(shí),比民航多50分鐘,其二等座票價(jià)為240元,機(jī)票為500元,憑借該優(yōu)勢(shì),鄭西高鐵占據(jù)了絕大部分市場(chǎng),春秋航空撤出了該路線的全部航班。為了應(yīng)對(duì)由于高鐵帶來的客流量的減少,民航開始采用機(jī)票打折等方式與其競(jìng)爭,因此研究我國高鐵對(duì)于民航客運(yùn)的沖擊影響有重要意義。本文首先分析高速鐵路和民航客運(yùn)各自的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,主要通過各自的發(fā)展史、特點(diǎn)以及現(xiàn)階段發(fā)展情況給出分析。然后指出高鐵與民航各自的優(yōu)勢(shì),通過其優(yōu)勢(shì)來對(duì)其競(jìng)爭進(jìn)行分析,主要通過價(jià)格競(jìng)爭、成本競(jìng)爭和服務(wù)競(jìng)爭這幾個(gè)方面展開,分析影響乘客選擇出行方式的因素：經(jīng)濟(jì)成本、時(shí)間、乘客主觀效用和安全。然后引出空鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)這一概念,并給出了國外機(jī)場(chǎng)空鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和國內(nèi)機(jī)場(chǎng)空鐵聯(lián)運(yùn)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀。接下來通過引入閾值回歸模型來分析高鐵對(duì)民航的影響,主要針對(duì)三個(gè)時(shí)間段進(jìn)行研究,分別為高鐵運(yùn)行4小時(shí)以內(nèi)、4-8小時(shí)、8-12小時(shí)。通過以北京-太原、上海-溫州、廣州-武漢、北京-上海、廣州-鄭州、杭州-青島、成都-武漢、廣州-重慶、成都-南京這些路段來分析高鐵開通前后對(duì)民航客流量的影響。通過模型結(jié)果本文得出高速鐵路的開通對(duì)于航空客運(yùn)具有負(fù)面的擠出效應(yīng),并且該擠出效應(yīng)根據(jù)耗費(fèi)時(shí)間的長短在不同的路段上有不同的表現(xiàn)。短途運(yùn)輸中的擠出作用最為明顯,中途客運(yùn)中,航空客運(yùn)發(fā)展對(duì)于高鐵的出現(xiàn)有較強(qiáng)的抵御力,但也僅僅是保持高鐵出現(xiàn)之前的航空客運(yùn)量水平,增長速度接近零。長途客運(yùn)中,航空運(yùn)輸顯示了自身的優(yōu)勢(shì),高鐵的出現(xiàn)對(duì)其沒有任何影響甚至出現(xiàn)了航空運(yùn)輸客運(yùn)量在高鐵出現(xiàn)之后仍然大幅增長的情況。由此可見,擠出效應(yīng)與耗費(fèi)時(shí)間成反比,中短途客運(yùn)高鐵對(duì)航空客運(yùn)的擠出較大,但隨著高鐵運(yùn)輸時(shí)間的變長,航空客運(yùn)的時(shí)間效率得到顯現(xiàn),特別是在一些地形復(fù)雜的區(qū)域,直線距離遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)小于地面運(yùn)輸距離,高鐵的運(yùn)行速度下降,航空客運(yùn)對(duì)于高鐵的優(yōu)勢(shì)更加突出。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China has vigorously developed the construction of high-speed railway. The State Council adopted the "medium and long term Railway Network Plan" on January 2004. 2008. The Ministry of Railways has also made further adjustments to the Medium- and Long-Term Railway Network Plan, which was approved by the State Council and approved by the State Council. To a certain extent, high-speed rail has alleviated the pressure on railway transportation. It has led to the development of the economy along the road. But since the high-speed rail has been officially put into operation, with its high punctual rate, high-speed. Safety and other advantages have caused a huge impact on civil aviation passenger transport. Due to the opening of high-speed rail in various places, the civil aviation attendance rate has dropped sharply, and the market share has also been shrinking. Some flights have even been grounded. For example, after the start of the Zhengxi high-speed rail, the operation time is two hours, 50 minutes longer than civil aviation, second-class ticket price 240 yuan, air ticket is 500 yuan, with this advantage. Zheng Xi high-speed rail accounts for most of the market, Chunqiu Airlines withdrew all flights on the route, to cope with the high-speed rail caused by the reduction in passenger traffic, civil aviation began to use discount tickets and other ways to compete with it. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the impact of high-speed rail on civil aviation passenger transport. Firstly, this paper analyzes the development of high-speed railway and civil aviation passenger transport, mainly through their history of development. Then points out the advantages of high-speed rail and civil aviation, through its advantages to analyze the competition, mainly through price competition. Cost competition and service competition are carried out to analyze the factors that affect passengers' choice of travel mode: economic cost, time, passenger subjective utility and safety. Then the concept of air rail transport is introduced. It also gives the development status of air-to-rail transport in foreign airports and the development status of air-to-rail transport in domestic airports. Then the influence of high-speed rail on civil aviation is analyzed by introducing the threshold regression model. This paper mainly focuses on three time periods, namely, high-speed rail running within 4 hours and 8 hours and 8 hours and 12 hours respectively. Through Beijing-Taiyuan, Shanghai-Wenzhou, Guangzhou-Wuhan, Beijing-Shanghai. Guangzhou-Zhengzhou, Hangzhou-Qingdao, Chengdu-Wuhan, Guangzhou-Chongqing. Chengdu-Nanjing sections of these sections to analyze the high-speed rail before and after the opening of the impact on civil aviation passenger flow. Through the results of the model this paper concluded that the opening of high-speed railway for air passenger transport has a negative crowding out effect. And the extrusion effect is different in different road sections according to the time consuming. The extrusion effect is the most obvious in short distance transportation, in the midway passenger transport. The development of air passenger transport has strong resistance to the emergence of high-speed rail, but it is only to maintain the level of air passenger volume before the emergence of high-speed rail, and the growth rate is close to zero. In long-distance passenger transport, air transport has shown its own advantages. The emergence of high-speed rail has no impact on it, even air transport passenger volume in the high-speed rail after the emergence of the situation is still a significant increase. Thus, the crowding out effect is inversely proportional to the cost of time. Medium-and short-distance high-speed rail is more crowded out for air passenger transport, but as the time of high-speed rail transportation becomes longer, the time efficiency of air passenger transport becomes apparent, especially in some areas with complex terrain. The linear distance is far less than the ground transportation distance, the speed of high-speed rail is decreased, and the superiority of air passenger transport to high-speed rail is more prominent.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F532.3;F562.3

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