基于ECHAM5模式的21世紀(jì)冬季北大西洋濤動(dòng)與北半球風(fēng)暴軸的特征分析
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-08-18 09:52
【摘要】：基于德國(guó)馬普所大氣模式ECHAM5的輸出結(jié)果,對(duì)RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5三種情景下21世紀(jì)冬季北大西洋濤動(dòng)(NAO)與冬季北半球風(fēng)暴軸的變化特征進(jìn)行探究。結(jié)果顯示,3種情景下,NAO指數(shù)(NAOI)均表現(xiàn)出9-14年的周期,冬季兩大洋風(fēng)暴軸強(qiáng)度均呈增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì),2大風(fēng)暴軸位置震蕩總呈東北(西南)向。輻射較強(qiáng)的情景,冬季北太平洋風(fēng)暴軸的平均位置越偏向亞歐大陸,冬季北大西洋風(fēng)暴軸的平均面積指數(shù)越大且平均位置越偏西。合成分析結(jié)果顯示,3種情景下,從NAO強(qiáng)年、平均態(tài)依次到弱年,2大洋風(fēng)暴軸的響應(yīng)不盡相同:RCP2.6情景中,北太平洋風(fēng)暴軸明顯遠(yuǎn)離歐亞大陸,強(qiáng)度和面積指數(shù)遞減,而北大西洋風(fēng)暴軸面積指數(shù)卻顯著遞增;RCP4.5情景中,北半球兩大洋上風(fēng)暴軸面積均逐漸增大,北大西洋風(fēng)暴軸逐漸靠近美洲大陸,強(qiáng)度也加強(qiáng);RCP8.5中,冬季北太平洋風(fēng)暴軸面積指數(shù)增大,位置遠(yuǎn)離亞歐大陸,強(qiáng)度增強(qiáng),北大西洋風(fēng)暴軸強(qiáng)度顯著遞增。
[Abstract]:Based on the output results of ECHAM5, an atmospheric model in Maputo, Germany, the variation characteristics of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the winter storm track in the Northern Hemisphere in the winter of the 21st century are investigated under the three scenarios of RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show that the (NAOI) index shows a period of 9-14 years under three scenarios, and the intensity of the two major oceanic storm tracks shows an increasing trend in winter. The location oscillations of the two major storm tracks tend to be in the northeast (southwest) direction. In the case of strong radiation, the average position of the North Pacific storm track is more inclined to the Eurasian continent in winter, and the average area index of the North Atlantic storm track is larger and the average position is more westward in winter. The results of synthetic analysis show that in the three scenarios, from the strong year of NAO, the average state is in order to the response of the oceanic storm track in the weak year, the response of the oceanic storm track is not the same as that of the second oceanic storm track. In this scenario, the northern Pacific storm track is obviously far from the Eurasian continent, and the intensity and area index decrease. However, the area index of the North Atlantic storm track increased significantly in the RCP 4.5 scenario, and the area of the storm track in the two major oceans in the Northern Hemisphere gradually increased, and the North Atlantic storm track gradually approached the American continent, and the intensity of the storm track increased in RCP 8.5. In winter, the area index of the North Pacific storm track increases, the position is far away from the Eurasian continent, and the intensity increases, and the intensity of the North Atlantic storm track increases significantly.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)海洋與大氣學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃“海洋儀器”設(shè)備規(guī)范化海上試驗(yàn)(2016YFC1401300)資助
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：P434;P732
，
本文編號(hào)：2189107
[Abstract]:Based on the output results of ECHAM5, an atmospheric model in Maputo, Germany, the variation characteristics of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the winter storm track in the Northern Hemisphere in the winter of the 21st century are investigated under the three scenarios of RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5. The results show that the (NAOI) index shows a period of 9-14 years under three scenarios, and the intensity of the two major oceanic storm tracks shows an increasing trend in winter. The location oscillations of the two major storm tracks tend to be in the northeast (southwest) direction. In the case of strong radiation, the average position of the North Pacific storm track is more inclined to the Eurasian continent in winter, and the average area index of the North Atlantic storm track is larger and the average position is more westward in winter. The results of synthetic analysis show that in the three scenarios, from the strong year of NAO, the average state is in order to the response of the oceanic storm track in the weak year, the response of the oceanic storm track is not the same as that of the second oceanic storm track. In this scenario, the northern Pacific storm track is obviously far from the Eurasian continent, and the intensity and area index decrease. However, the area index of the North Atlantic storm track increased significantly in the RCP 4.5 scenario, and the area of the storm track in the two major oceans in the Northern Hemisphere gradually increased, and the North Atlantic storm track gradually approached the American continent, and the intensity of the storm track increased in RCP 8.5. In winter, the area index of the North Pacific storm track increases, the position is far away from the Eurasian continent, and the intensity increases, and the intensity of the North Atlantic storm track increases significantly.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)海洋與大氣學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃“海洋儀器”設(shè)備規(guī)范化海上試驗(yàn)(2016YFC1401300)資助
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：P434;P732
，
本文編號(hào)：2189107
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