【摘要】：人地關(guān)系矛盾的愈加劇烈使得海洋成為人類在未來(lái)生存和發(fā)展主要的資源寶庫(kù)。對(duì)于海洋的依賴以及開發(fā),使得人類不得不深入研究海洋,隨之而來(lái)的是催生出新的海洋及其相關(guān)產(chǎn)業(yè),帶動(dòng)海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)乃至區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展。雖然海洋為人類的發(fā)展提供了巨大的利益,但是也導(dǎo)致了一些問(wèn)題,比如海洋資源的過(guò)度消耗以及沿海地區(qū)海洋生態(tài)環(huán)境的破壞�？紤]到全球擁有近一半的人口居住在沿海地區(qū),我們迫切需要新的分析模型來(lái)指導(dǎo)我們?nèi)绾螒?yīng)對(duì)這些問(wèn)題,如何通過(guò)利用和保護(hù)海洋資源,讓人類走上一條可持續(xù)發(fā)展的道路。本文首先對(duì)海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展相關(guān)的研究文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行整理,分析國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)領(lǐng)域最新的理論研究進(jìn)展,并分別進(jìn)行評(píng)述�；趯�(duì)海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展及其相關(guān)理論理解的基礎(chǔ)上,通過(guò)引入量化模型來(lái)評(píng)價(jià)海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平。以代謝循環(huán)能力作為研究切入點(diǎn),建立海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展測(cè)度指標(biāo)體系,構(gòu)建包含發(fā)展度、協(xié)調(diào)度、代謝循環(huán)度的量化模型。其次,根據(jù)環(huán)渤海地區(qū)17個(gè)沿海城市2000~2011年的相關(guān)研究數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)建海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系,采用決策分析方法將主觀性較強(qiáng)的AHP法和客觀性較強(qiáng)的熵值法相結(jié)合確定綜合權(quán)重,并根據(jù)上文構(gòu)建的協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展模型和代謝循環(huán)模型來(lái)測(cè)算環(huán)渤海地區(qū)17個(gè)城市海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展度、協(xié)調(diào)度和代謝循環(huán)度,并最終算出海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展度。再次,運(yùn)用核密度估計(jì)模型對(duì)環(huán)渤海地區(qū)海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平進(jìn)行時(shí)間差異分析,根據(jù)得到的3個(gè)時(shí)點(diǎn)的核密度曲線表明,從2005年開始環(huán)渤海地區(qū)海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r開始呈現(xiàn)兩極分化的態(tài)勢(shì),但是可持續(xù)發(fā)展能力在總體上保持著持續(xù)增強(qiáng)。運(yùn)用均值標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差分類法將環(huán)渤海地區(qū)17個(gè)城市的海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平分為4類。其中強(qiáng)可持續(xù)發(fā)展地區(qū)為:天津、大連、青島;中等可持續(xù)發(fā)展地區(qū)為:威海、煙臺(tái)、日照和秦皇島;較弱可持續(xù)發(fā)展地區(qū)為:唐山、滄州、營(yíng)口、丹東、盤錦、葫蘆島、錦州、東營(yíng)和濰坊;弱可持續(xù)發(fā)展地區(qū)為:濱州�？梢园l(fā)現(xiàn)海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展水平較弱和弱的城市主要集中于環(huán)渤海地區(qū)的西海岸或者西北海岸。最后,構(gòu)建包含三個(gè)維度(發(fā)展度、協(xié)調(diào)度和代謝循環(huán)度)的坐標(biāo)圖,進(jìn)行比較分析的研究,基于各城市坐標(biāo)軸上的位置和特征,發(fā)現(xiàn)海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)能力的主要影響因素在環(huán)渤海地區(qū)17個(gè)城市以及3個(gè)組群中存在差別。比較分析研究可以更加直觀的找出影響各城市海洋經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展能力的主要因素,并有助于引導(dǎo)決策者為特定的地區(qū)制定一些特定的短期或者中長(zhǎng)期的政策建議,對(duì)于增強(qiáng)區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展能力具有一定的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。
[Abstract]:The increasingly intense contradiction between man and land makes the ocean become the main resource treasure for human survival and development in the future. The dependence and development of the ocean make the human beings have to study the ocean in depth. With it, the new ocean and its related industries are spawned, and the rapid development of the marine economy and even the regional economy is brought about. Although the ocean provides enormous benefits for the development of human beings, it also leads to some problems, such as the excessive consumption of marine resources and the destruction of marine ecological environment in coastal areas. Considering that nearly half of the world's population lives in coastal areas, we urgently need new analytical models to guide us in how to deal with these problems and how to put mankind on a path of sustainable development through the use and protection of marine resources. In this paper, firstly, the relevant literatures on the sustainable development of marine economy are reviewed, and the latest theoretical research progress in the related fields at home and abroad is analyzed and reviewed respectively. Based on the understanding of the sustainable development of marine economy and its related theories, a quantitative model is introduced to evaluate the level of sustainable development of marine economy. Taking metabolic circulation ability as the starting point, the paper establishes the index system of the sustainable development of marine economy, and constructs a quantitative model including the degree of development, the degree of coordination and the degree of metabolic cycle. Secondly, according to the relevant research data of 17 coastal cities in Bohai Rim region from 2000 to 2011, the evaluation index system of sustainable development of marine economy is constructed. The decision analysis method is used to determine the comprehensive weight by combining the subjective AHP method with the objective entropy method. According to the model of coordinated development and metabolic cycle established above, the development degree, coordination degree and metabolic cycle degree of marine economy in 17 cities around Bohai Sea are calculated, and finally the sustainable development degree of marine economy is calculated. Thirdly, using the nuclear density estimation model to analyze the time difference of the sustainable development level of marine economy around Bohai Sea, according to the obtained nuclear density curve at three time points, it is shown that, Since 2005, the sustainable development of marine economy in Bohai Rim area has appeared to be polarized, but the ability of sustainable development has been continuously strengthened. The sustainable development level of marine economy in 17 cities around Bohai Sea is classified into 4 categories by means of mean standard deviation classification. The strong sustainable development areas are Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao; the middle sustainable development areas are Weihai, Yantai, Rizhao and Qinhuangdao; the weaker sustainable development areas are Tangshan, Cangzhou, Yingkou, Dandong, Panjin, Huludao, Jinzhou, Dongying and Weifang; weak sustainable development area: Binzhou. It can be found that the weak and weak cities of the sustainable development of marine economy mainly concentrate on the west coast or northwest coast of the Bohai Rim region. Finally, a coordinate map with three dimensions (development degree, coordination degree and metabolic cycle degree) is constructed for comparative analysis, based on the location and characteristics of each city coordinate axis. It is found that the main influencing factors of marine economic sustainability are different in 17 cities and 3 groups around the Bohai Sea. Comparative analysis and research can more intuitively identify the main factors affecting the sustainable development of urban marine economy, and help to guide policy makers to formulate specific short- or medium- and long-term policy recommendations for specific areas. It is of practical significance to strengthen the ability of regional sustainable development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：P74

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