本文選題：北極海冰 + 季節(jié)變化��； 參考：《中國海洋大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文采用美國冰雪中心以及歐洲哈德萊數(shù)據(jù)中心的海冰密集度數(shù)據(jù)，，詳細(xì)分析了1979年至2012年34年間北極海冰的變化特征。研究結(jié)果表明，北極海冰正在經(jīng)歷著一個快速變化的過程，海冰覆蓋范圍整體呈現(xiàn)減少趨勢，但存在兩次年代際轉(zhuǎn)型，主要變化特征分為三個階段：①1979年~1996年，②1997年~2006年，③2007年~2012年。第一階段海冰線性減少趨勢相對較小，年際振蕩振幅適中；進(jìn)入1997年之后，北極海冰快速減少，其線性減少趨勢達(dá)到之前的三倍以上，但年際振蕩振幅很�。辉�2007年之后，北極海冰線性減少趨勢不顯著，但振幅急劇增加�？臻g上，海冰變化中心區(qū)域逐漸由邊緣海區(qū)向北極中央海區(qū)擴(kuò)展。與此同時，季節(jié)變化特征明顯改變：融冰開始時間提前，結(jié)冰時間推后，融冰期時間延長，季節(jié)振蕩加劇。此外，隨著北極整體海冰的減少，北極中央?yún)^(qū)海冰近些年來也呈現(xiàn)出不斷減少的趨勢。 通過數(shù)值試驗分析大氣對于北極海冰快速變化的異常響應(yīng)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)：隨著北極海冰的逐漸減少，會引起北極局地明顯的升溫現(xiàn)象，同時導(dǎo)致局地海平面氣壓降低，而中緯度地區(qū)海平面氣壓場升高。而海冰的變化還會直接影響到北極濤動（AO）和偶極子型（DA）的改變。從模式結(jié)果來看，隨著北極海冰的逐漸減少，北極濤動逐漸向正位相偏轉(zhuǎn)，同時極端AO發(fā)生頻率增加，平均強度增大。這有可能導(dǎo)致中高緯度大氣振蕩加劇，極端天氣現(xiàn)象發(fā)生概率增加。 為研究未來北極海冰的變化特征，綜合考慮北極海冰的變化特征，采用四個獨立的指標(biāo)描述模式對海冰的模擬性能，建立了一套全新的模式評價標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，從31個含有海冰模塊的第五次耦合模式比較計劃（Coupled Model IntercomparisonProject Phase5，CMIP5）模式結(jié)果中篩選出6個能夠很好地模擬出北極海冰歷史變化特征的數(shù)值模式，并以此為基礎(chǔ)，研究未來北極海冰的變化特征。結(jié)果表明，北極海冰最早可能在2040年之前達(dá)到夏季無冰現(xiàn)象，即所有多年冰消失，全部轉(zhuǎn)化為一年冰，同時海冰范圍變化的振幅急劇增加。在極端情況下（RCP8.5情境），至本世紀(jì)末，融冰期由目前的每年7月中旬開始10月結(jié)束轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)槊磕?月開始次年1月結(jié)束，融冰時間延長近200天。同時，北極海冰變化也由邊緣海區(qū)向北極中央海區(qū)擴(kuò)展，到本世紀(jì)末，海冰變化的中心區(qū)域可能位于北極點附近。同時，根據(jù)模式結(jié)果預(yù)測，未來的北極濤動有向正位相轉(zhuǎn)變的傾向。
[Abstract]:Based on the ice intensity data from the American Ice and Snow Center and the European Hadley data Center, the variation characteristics of Arctic sea ice from 1979 to 2012 are analyzed in detail.The results show that the Arctic sea ice is undergoing a rapid change process, and the sea ice coverage has a decreasing trend, but there are two Interdecadal transformations, the main characteristics of which are divided into three stages: 11979 ~ 1996, 21997 ~ 2006.3 from 2007 to 2012.In the first stage, the trend of linear decrease of sea ice was relatively small, and the amplitude of interannual oscillation was moderate. After 1997, the Arctic sea ice decreased rapidly and its linear decreasing trend reached more than three times the previous trend, but the amplitude of interannual oscillation was very small; after 2007,The linear decreasing trend of Arctic sea ice is not significant, but the amplitude increases sharply.In space, the sea ice change center area gradually extends from the marginal sea area to the Arctic central sea area.At the same time, the characteristics of seasonal variation are obviously changed: the beginning time of melting ice is early, the time of ice formation is delayed, the time of melting ice period is prolonged, and the seasonal oscillation is intensified.In addition, with the decrease of the whole Arctic sea ice, the Arctic central sea ice also shows a decreasing trend in recent years.Through numerical experiments to analyze the anomalous response of the atmosphere to the rapid change of Arctic sea ice, we find that with the gradual decrease of Arctic sea ice, the local warming phenomenon in the Arctic will be obvious, and the local sea level pressure will decrease at the same time.And the sea level pressure field increases in the middle latitudes.The changes of sea ice also directly affect the changes of AOA and DAA.From the results of the model, with the decrease of Arctic sea ice, the Arctic Oscillation gradually deflects to the positive phase, at the same time, the frequency of extreme AO increases and the average intensity increases.This may lead to the increase of atmospheric oscillation and the probability of extreme weather phenomena in the middle and high latitudes.In order to study the variation characteristics of Arctic sea ice in the future, considering the variation characteristics of Arctic sea ice, four independent indexes are used to describe the simulation performance of sea ice, and a set of new model evaluation criteria are established.From the results of the fifth coupled Model IntercomparisonProject phase 5 CMIP5 model with sea ice modules, six numerical models were selected to simulate the historical variation characteristics of Arctic sea ice.The variation characteristics of Arctic sea ice in the future are studied.The results show that the Arctic sea ice may reach the summer ice free phenomenon as early as 2040, that is, all years of ice disappear, all of them are converted into one year ice, and the amplitude of the range of sea ice changes increases sharply.In extreme cases, by the end of this century, the melting ice age has changed from the beginning of October to the end of each year from the middle of July to the end of January of the following year, and the time of melting ice is extended by nearly 200 days.At the same time, the variation of Arctic sea ice extends from the marginal sea area to the central Arctic sea area. By the end of this century, the central area of the sea ice change may be located near the Arctic point.At the same time, according to the model results, the future Arctic Oscillation tends to shift to positive phase.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：P731.15;P461.2

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