本文關(guān)鍵詞：云南省能源需求預(yù)測(cè)模型的研究　出處：《昆明理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 能源生產(chǎn) 能源消費(fèi) 能源預(yù)測(cè)模型 能源發(fā)展對(duì)策

【摘要】：能源是經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、人類(lèi)生存必不可少的重要資源。在不久的將來(lái),我國(guó)將全面完成工業(yè)化與城鎮(zhèn)化進(jìn)程,實(shí)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)代化,這必然會(huì)導(dǎo)致能源消耗的大幅度增加。對(duì)云南省能源生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)情況進(jìn)行科學(xué)地預(yù)測(cè),這對(duì)于能源的正確監(jiān)管與規(guī)劃,促進(jìn)云南省地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值的增加,構(gòu)建和諧社會(huì)和節(jié)約型社會(huì),具有十分重要的意義。本文通過(guò)對(duì)云南省能源消費(fèi)和生產(chǎn)現(xiàn)狀全面詳細(xì)分析的基礎(chǔ)上,綜合運(yùn)用多元線性回歸預(yù)測(cè)模型、灰色GM(1,1)預(yù)測(cè)模型、三次指數(shù)平法預(yù)測(cè)模型和單位GDP能耗法預(yù)測(cè)模型,對(duì)云南省的能源消費(fèi)和生產(chǎn)情況進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè)與分析,并且對(duì)云南省能源產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展提出對(duì)策及建議。首先,論述了能源問(wèn)題與社會(huì)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展之間的關(guān)系,分析了云南省能源發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀和面臨的節(jié)能壓力。第二,介紹了能源系統(tǒng)的相關(guān)概念和能源預(yù)測(cè)的內(nèi)容、分類(lèi)、意義以及預(yù)測(cè)常用的方法。第三,全面系統(tǒng)地分析了影響云南省能源消費(fèi)總量的主要因素,建立了預(yù)測(cè)模型并且對(duì)模型的預(yù)測(cè)精度進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn)。最后,從云南省的能源生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)兩個(gè)角度分析了云南省的能源結(jié)構(gòu)和消費(fèi)特點(diǎn),找出了云南省能源系統(tǒng)中存在的問(wèn)題,根據(jù)能源預(yù)測(cè)模型,對(duì)云南省能源的使用情況進(jìn)行了分析,提出了促進(jìn)云南省能源產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展相關(guān)對(duì)策和建議。
[Abstract]:Energy is an indispensable resource for economic development and human survival. In the near future, China will complete the process of industrialization and urbanization and realize modernization. This will inevitably lead to a large increase in energy consumption. To predict the energy production and consumption in Yunnan Province scientifically, which is the correct supervision and planning of energy, and promote the increase of the GDP of Yunnan Province. It is of great significance to build a harmonious society and a conservation-oriented society. Based on the comprehensive and detailed analysis of energy consumption and production in Yunnan Province, this paper comprehensively applies the multiple linear regression prediction model. The energy consumption and production of Yunnan Province are predicted and analyzed by grey GMX 1 / 1) model, cubic exponential flat method and unit GDP energy consumption method. And put forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the development of energy industry in Yunnan Province. Firstly, it discusses the relationship between energy problems and coordinated development of society, analyzes the current situation of energy development in Yunnan Province and the pressure of energy conservation. This paper introduces the related concepts of energy system and the content, classification, significance and common methods of energy prediction. Thirdly, the main factors affecting the total energy consumption in Yunnan Province are analyzed comprehensively and systematically. The prediction model is established and the prediction accuracy of the model is tested. Finally, the energy structure and consumption characteristics of Yunnan Province are analyzed from the perspective of energy production and consumption. This paper finds out the problems existing in the energy system of Yunnan Province, analyzes the situation of energy use in Yunnan Province according to the energy prediction model, and puts forward some relevant countermeasures and suggestions to promote the development of energy industry in Yunnan Province.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.2

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