【摘要】：耕地是土地資源中的精華,人們獲取農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的基礎(chǔ)條件。結(jié)合我國人多地少的國情,以及城市化過程中不可避免占用耕地的狀況,更加凸顯了耕地保護(hù)研究的重要性。通過選取西部地區(qū)具有典型代表的銀川市作為研究區(qū),結(jié)合遙感和GIS,分析了在快速城市化背景下區(qū)域耕地變化規(guī)律性特點(diǎn),識(shí)別耕地變化關(guān)鍵驅(qū)動(dòng)因子,預(yù)測(cè)耕地變化趨勢(shì),并提出了結(jié)合LUCC研究成果的基本農(nóng)田布局優(yōu)化方法,為耕地保護(hù)與區(qū)域可持續(xù)發(fā)展提供理論依據(jù)和科學(xué)支撐,本研究主要結(jié)論如下： (1)在快速城市化的背景下,通過對(duì)銀川市耕地?cái)?shù)量、空間與質(zhì)量變化規(guī)律分析表明：1989-2009年間,耕地表現(xiàn)出持續(xù)快速膨脹式擴(kuò)張的特點(diǎn)。1999年前,耕地增加主要位于新城區(qū)(西夏區(qū)),1999年后,耕地增加主要位于東部老城區(qū)(興慶區(qū))和北部郊區(qū)縣(賀蘭縣)。從耕地空間和結(jié)構(gòu)變化的特點(diǎn)來看,1999年前,耕地轉(zhuǎn)換主要為市區(qū)西部大面積的未利用地開發(fā);1999年后,主要表現(xiàn)為中心城區(qū)城鎮(zhèn)用地迅速擴(kuò)張占用周邊耕地,以及農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)圈外圍的土地開發(fā)和整個(gè)區(qū)域內(nèi)開展的土地整治。全市耕地重心向西北部移動(dòng),長(zhǎng)期農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)中形成了局部穩(wěn)定性區(qū)域,并且城市擴(kuò)張“貼邊建設(shè)”占耕比例過高這一現(xiàn)象在1999年后表現(xiàn)得更為顯著。全市耕地平均自然質(zhì)量持續(xù)性降低,在1999年前表現(xiàn)的更加明顯。結(jié)合耕地景觀指數(shù)分析表明,耕地的破碎化程度經(jīng)歷了先升高后降低的過程,而耕地集約利用水平則持續(xù)提高。 (2)通過鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)統(tǒng)計(jì)面板數(shù)據(jù)與遙感分類數(shù)據(jù)相結(jié)合,探索1999-2009年間銀川市耕地變化驅(qū)動(dòng)力分析表明：耕地自然質(zhì)量以及城鎮(zhèn)距離構(gòu)成了耕地減少的重要驅(qū)動(dòng)因子,從數(shù)量關(guān)系上證明了耕地減少對(duì)于自然與區(qū)位條件具有偏好性;移民開發(fā)引起的人口總量增加以及快速城市化是這一時(shí)期內(nèi)耕地?cái)?shù)量增加的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)因子;社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)條件對(duì)于耕地?cái)?shù)量變化具有兩方面作用,利用經(jīng)濟(jì)措施調(diào)控耕地?cái)?shù)量,從宏觀上看,需要調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),逐步降低第二產(chǎn)業(yè)產(chǎn)值比例,從微觀上看,則需要保障農(nóng)民收益水平；種植糧食作物對(duì)于促進(jìn)耕地面積增加,抑制耕地面積減少具有雙重作用,表明銀川市作為引黃灌區(qū)重要商品糧基地這一戰(zhàn)略定位對(duì)于保障耕地面積產(chǎn)生了積極影響。 (3)在土地利用規(guī)劃約束下實(shí)現(xiàn)了2020年耕地空間布局預(yù)測(cè)。利用遙感影像反映出的規(guī)律性,結(jié)合銀川市級(jí)土地利用規(guī)劃空間布局和規(guī)劃約束性指標(biāo)的限制,通過CA-Markov模型得出了2020年土地利用圖。預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果分析表明,未來時(shí)期內(nèi)耕地仍是土地利用變化的核心地類,耕地?cái)?shù)量將會(huì)繼續(xù)增加�？晒╅_發(fā)的耕地后備資源已經(jīng)接近枯竭,由于開發(fā)生態(tài)性用地以及劣質(zhì)耕地退化,耕地平均質(zhì)量穩(wěn)中略有提升。同時(shí)過度開發(fā)引起的耕地退化現(xiàn)象會(huì)進(jìn)一步凸顯,因此在耕地利用中需要強(qiáng)調(diào)對(duì)生態(tài)環(huán)境的保護(hù),重點(diǎn)協(xié)調(diào)區(qū)域水資源供給平衡,實(shí)行優(yōu)質(zhì)耕地保護(hù)策略是實(shí)現(xiàn)區(qū)域耕地保護(hù)與可持續(xù)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵。 (4)在綜合銀川市耕地變化相關(guān)研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,針對(duì)區(qū)域特點(diǎn),構(gòu)建了基于耕地自然質(zhì)量、經(jīng)濟(jì)驅(qū)動(dòng)、規(guī)劃預(yù)測(cè)以及生態(tài)安全的基本農(nóng)田質(zhì)量綜合評(píng)價(jià)體系,同時(shí)設(shè)置了質(zhì)量最優(yōu)、經(jīng)濟(jì)最優(yōu)以及生態(tài)最優(yōu)3種不同的情景模式,通過選取圖斑為評(píng)價(jià)單元,將耕地的質(zhì)量區(qū)位、圖斑屬性及利用方式相結(jié)合,創(chuàng)新提出了基于耕地圖斑綜合排序模型劃定基本農(nóng)田的方法,實(shí)現(xiàn)了優(yōu)質(zhì)耕地的集中連片保護(hù),并通過該模型確定了不同情景模式下基本農(nóng)田劃定的范圍。對(duì)比分析表明,當(dāng)前銀川市的基本農(nóng)田保護(hù)區(qū)劃定方案,統(tǒng)籌考慮了自然質(zhì)量、經(jīng)濟(jì)驅(qū)動(dòng)以及生態(tài)環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)三個(gè)不同方面,整體布局具有合理性。
[Abstract]:Cultivated land is the essence of land resources, the basic conditions for people to obtain agricultural products. Combined with the national conditions of many people in China and the unavoidable occupation of cultivated land during the process of urbanization, the importance of cultivated land protection is highlighted. The Yinchuan City, a typical representative of the western region, is selected as the research area, combined with remote sensing and GIS, The characteristics of the regional cultivated land change under the rapid urbanization background are analyzed, the key driving factors of cultivated land change are identified and the change trend of cultivated land is predicted. The basic farmland layout optimization method combined with LUCC research results is put forward to provide theoretical basis and scientific support for cultivated land protection and regional sustainable development. The main conclusions of this study are as follows: Below:
(1) in the background of rapid urbanization, the analysis of the quantity, space and quality change of cultivated land in Yinchuan shows that in the 1989-2009 years, the cultivated land showed the characteristic of continuous rapid expansion of expansion.1999 years ago, the increase of cultivated land was mainly located in the new urban area (Xixia District). After 1999, the increase of cultivated land was mainly located in the eastern old city (Xingqing District) and the north. In the suburb county (Helan county). From the characteristics of the spatial and structural changes of cultivated land, the conversion of cultivated land was mainly for the unused land development in the west of the urban area before 1999. After 1999, the main performance was the rapid expansion of the surrounding farmland in the urban area of the central urban area, the development of the land outside the agricultural production circle and the soil carried out in the whole region. The area of local stability was formed in the long term agricultural production, and the phenomenon of high proportion of "border construction" in urban expansion was more significant after 1999. The average natural quality of cultivated land in the city was reduced continuously, and it was more obvious before 1999. The index analysis showed that the fragmentation degree of cultivated land experienced a process of increasing first and then decreasing, while the intensive utilization level of cultivated land continued to increase.
(2) through the combination of township statistical panel data and remote sensing data, the analysis of the driving force of cultivated land change in Yinchuan in the past 1999-2009 years shows that the natural quality of the cultivated land and the urban distance constitute an important driving factor for the reduction of cultivated land, and it is proved that the reduction of cultivated land has a preference for the natural and regional conditions. The increase of total population and rapid urbanization are the main driving factors for the increase of the quantity of cultivated land during this period. The social and economic conditions have two roles on the change of cultivated land, and the use of economic measures to regulate the quantity of cultivated land. From the macroscopic view, it is necessary to adjust the industrial structure and gradually reduce the proportion of the output value of the second industry, from the micro level. As a matter of view, the income level of farmers should be guaranteed, and the planting of grain crops has double effects on increasing the area of cultivated land and reducing the reduction of cultivated land area. It shows that the strategic positioning of Yinchuan as an important commodity grain base in the Yellow River irrigation area has a positive impact on the protection of the cultivated land area.
(3) under the constraints of land use planning, the spatial distribution of cultivated land in 2020 was predicted. By using the regularity of remote sensing images, the land use map of 2020 was obtained through the CA-Markov model combined with the restriction of the spatial layout and planning constraints of the urban land use planning in Yinchuan. The prediction results showed that the cultivated land was still in the future period. As the core category of land use change, the number of cultivated land will continue to increase. The reserve resources for cultivated land are nearly exhausted. The average quality of cultivated land is slightly improved because of the development of ecological land and the degradation of inferior cultivated land. Meanwhile, the degradation of cultivated land caused by overexploitation will be further highlighted, so the cultivated land is used in the cultivated land. It is necessary to emphasize the protection of the ecological environment, to coordinate the balance of water supply in the region, and to implement the protection strategy of high quality arable land is the key to realize the protection and sustainable development of the regional arable land.
(4) on the basis of comprehensive research results of cultivated land change in Yinchuan, based on the regional characteristics, a comprehensive evaluation system of basic farmland quality based on natural quality of cultivated land, economic driving, planning and forecasting and ecological security is constructed. At the same time, 3 different scenarios are set up with the best quality, the best economy and the ecological optimal, through the selection of the map. The spot is the evaluation unit, combining the quality location of the cultivated land, the attribute of the plot spot and the way of utilization, the method of drawing up the basic farmland based on the comprehensive ranking model of cultivated land is put forward, and the centralized protection of the high quality cultivated land is realized, and the range of the basic farmland delimited under the different situational mode is determined by the model. At present, the basic farmland protection area of Yinchuan is delimited, considering three different aspects of natural quality, economic drive and ecological environment risk as a whole, and the overall layout is reasonable.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：P208;F323.211

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