基于CA-Markov和GIS的芒市土地利用變化模擬及預(yù)測(cè)研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-07-15 09:36
【摘要】：土地是人類社會(huì)和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要基礎(chǔ)之一,對(duì)土地利用\覆蓋變化的特征和規(guī)律的研究是一切人類活動(dòng)的基礎(chǔ)性課題。尤其近幾年來,我國(guó)城市化進(jìn)程的加速引發(fā)了一系列的社會(huì)及生態(tài)問題,比如土地資源浪費(fèi)、生態(tài)環(huán)境惡化、人地矛盾加劇等問題,對(duì)人類可持續(xù)性發(fā)展提出了更高的要求。因而了解土地利用變化/覆蓋的規(guī)律對(duì)加強(qiáng)土地利用規(guī)劃的協(xié)調(diào)與引導(dǎo)作用,促進(jìn)土地利用方式和管理方式的轉(zhuǎn)變,綜合協(xié)調(diào)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展、耕地保護(hù)和生態(tài)環(huán)境保護(hù)三者的土地利用關(guān)系具有極其重要的意義。在此背景下,本文研究概括了國(guó)內(nèi)外土地利用/覆蓋研究進(jìn)展,并以此為切入點(diǎn),提出研究的目的及意義。然后明確研究的主要內(nèi)容,并針對(duì)研究?jī)?nèi)容提出科學(xué)合理的研究方法。本論文是在基于IDRISI軟件為平臺(tái),運(yùn)用CA-Markov模型作為本次論文中對(duì)土地利用變化模擬預(yù)測(cè)的模型,根據(jù)2009-2013年芒市土地利用變更調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),作者主要從土地利用數(shù)量、程度、結(jié)構(gòu)等方面對(duì)芒市土地利用變化進(jìn)行宏觀分析。在此基礎(chǔ)上,依靠Arcgis軟件對(duì)造成這些結(jié)果的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)因子進(jìn)行分析歸納,所得變化規(guī)律為獲取各土地利用類型的限制性圖集的前提。最后確定模型的其余參數(shù)后運(yùn)行CA-Markov模型,對(duì)芒市在2017年的土地利用的變化狀況進(jìn)行模擬預(yù)測(cè)研究,評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果證明模型精度可行。這不僅可以在未來為芒市國(guó)土部門決策擬定、政策實(shí)施提供科學(xué)依據(jù),也在一定程度上拓寬了CA-Markov模型在小尺度范圍土地利用變化中的研究。
[Abstract]:Land is one of the important foundations of human social and economic development. The study of the characteristics and laws of land use / cover change is the basic subject of all human activities. Especially in recent years, the acceleration of urbanization in our country has led to a series of social and ecological problems, such as the waste of land resources, the deterioration of ecological environment, the intensification of contradiction between man and land, and so on, which put forward higher requirements for the sustainable development of human beings. Therefore, to understand the law of land use change / cover to strengthen the coordination and guidance of land use planning, to promote the transformation of land use and management, and to coordinate social and economic development, The land use relationship between cultivated land protection and ecological environment protection is of great significance. Under this background, this paper summarizes the research progress of land use / cover both at home and abroad, and puts forward the purpose and significance of the research. Then the main contents of the study are defined, and scientific and reasonable research methods are put forward in view of the research contents. This paper is based on IDRISI software platform, using CA-Markov model as the model of land use change simulation prediction in this paper. According to the survey data of land use change from 2009 to 2013, the author mainly from the land use quantity, degree. Structure and other aspects of land use change in Mango macro-analysis. On this basis, the main driving factors causing these results are analyzed and summarized by Arcgis software, and the law of change is the premise of obtaining the restrictive maps of each land use type. Finally, CA-Markov model was run after the other parameters of the model were determined, and the land use change in Mango city in 2017 was simulated and forecasted. The evaluation results proved that the accuracy of the model was feasible. This will not only provide a scientific basis for the decision making and policy implementation of the land department of Mango in the future, but also broaden the study of CA-Markov model in small-scale land use change to a certain extent.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：P208;F301.2
，
本文編號(hào)：2123633
[Abstract]:Land is one of the important foundations of human social and economic development. The study of the characteristics and laws of land use / cover change is the basic subject of all human activities. Especially in recent years, the acceleration of urbanization in our country has led to a series of social and ecological problems, such as the waste of land resources, the deterioration of ecological environment, the intensification of contradiction between man and land, and so on, which put forward higher requirements for the sustainable development of human beings. Therefore, to understand the law of land use change / cover to strengthen the coordination and guidance of land use planning, to promote the transformation of land use and management, and to coordinate social and economic development, The land use relationship between cultivated land protection and ecological environment protection is of great significance. Under this background, this paper summarizes the research progress of land use / cover both at home and abroad, and puts forward the purpose and significance of the research. Then the main contents of the study are defined, and scientific and reasonable research methods are put forward in view of the research contents. This paper is based on IDRISI software platform, using CA-Markov model as the model of land use change simulation prediction in this paper. According to the survey data of land use change from 2009 to 2013, the author mainly from the land use quantity, degree. Structure and other aspects of land use change in Mango macro-analysis. On this basis, the main driving factors causing these results are analyzed and summarized by Arcgis software, and the law of change is the premise of obtaining the restrictive maps of each land use type. Finally, CA-Markov model was run after the other parameters of the model were determined, and the land use change in Mango city in 2017 was simulated and forecasted. The evaluation results proved that the accuracy of the model was feasible. This will not only provide a scientific basis for the decision making and policy implementation of the land department of Mango in the future, but also broaden the study of CA-Markov model in small-scale land use change to a certain extent.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：P208;F301.2
，
本文編號(hào)：2123633
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