本文選題：青藏塊體東北緣 + 跨斷層　； 參考：《西安科技大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：地震預(yù)測到如今還是探索性研宄項目，特別是對于中、短期或臨震前的預(yù)測還處于探索階段，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)沒有到可以實用的程度。一些學(xué)者對實現(xiàn)地震預(yù)報抱有懷疑，對于用行政手段組織地震預(yù)測持保留態(tài)度。 地震預(yù)測的科學(xué)前提是認(rèn)識地震孕育和發(fā)生的物理過程，包括地球介質(zhì)物理、力學(xué)性質(zhì)的異常變化。但是人類對地震成因和地震發(fā)生的規(guī)律還知之甚少，主要是因為地震是宏觀自然界中大規(guī)模的深層的變動過程，不同于實驗室中單純的可控條件下進(jìn)行的樣品試驗，其影響因素過于復(fù)雜，還可能有人類未知的因素存在。其中地殼形變測量學(xué)就是以大地形變觀測為基礎(chǔ)，研宄現(xiàn)今地殼構(gòu)造運(yùn)動和地震孕育過程的形變特征及其機(jī)理，直接為強(qiáng)震預(yù)測及其它形變?yōu)暮ρ绣撤⻊?wù)的一門學(xué)科。而在利用跨斷層測量預(yù)報地震時，形變異常通常是作為地震前兆信息的一個非常重要指標(biāo)，也是短臨地震預(yù)報的重要基礎(chǔ)。 本文研宄的內(nèi)容就是在現(xiàn)有條件下怎樣更充分地綜合利用斷層形變資料來研宄地震預(yù)測預(yù)報方面的問題。針對斷層分析中形變異常產(chǎn)生的多源性，考慮當(dāng)前青藏塊體東北緣跨斷層測量場地基礎(chǔ)信息管理和使用中存在的場地基礎(chǔ)資料不完整、且多系紙介質(zhì)存儲，不便查詢和使用；場地的斷層監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)與相關(guān)的基礎(chǔ)地理信息分離，不便于進(jìn)行綜合分析等問題，探討了建立跨斷層場地基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)庫的方法，并研發(fā)基于GIS的跨斷層測量場地基礎(chǔ)信息管理系統(tǒng)，以提高跨斷層形變監(jiān)測信息的管理、分析和利用。 主要內(nèi)容有： (1)跨斷層場地基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)的收集與整理 跨斷層場地基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)除包括斷層基本信息和各期斷層測量原始數(shù)據(jù)外，還包括場地概況、地理環(huán)境、地形圖、氣候、溫度、場地地質(zhì)背景、場地周圍歷史地震情況等多項基礎(chǔ)信息，同時研宄引起形變異常的可能因素以及影響條件和力度，以便能提高地震分析預(yù)報的科學(xué)性和準(zhǔn)確性。 (2)跨斷層場地數(shù)據(jù)庫模型設(shè)計 模型是在數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上建立起來的，數(shù)據(jù)模型包括了矢量數(shù)據(jù)模型、柵格數(shù)據(jù)模型以及失柵一體化模型。根據(jù)對跨斷層場地數(shù)據(jù)的實際應(yīng)用需求分析，結(jié)合相關(guān)的數(shù)據(jù)規(guī)范要求，我們選用了關(guān)系數(shù)據(jù)庫作為本數(shù)據(jù)庫的建庫理論基礎(chǔ)，設(shè)計出了跨斷層場地數(shù)據(jù)庫模型，并根據(jù)實際情況通過各種手段進(jìn)行了優(yōu)化，提高了跨斷層場地數(shù)據(jù)庫的實用性。 (3)跨斷層場地數(shù)據(jù)庫的建立 根據(jù)所建立的數(shù)據(jù)庫模型，將收集到的跨斷層場地資料進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)處理與整合，最終建立獨立的跨斷層場地數(shù)據(jù)庫。 (4)跨斷層場地數(shù)據(jù)庫管理系統(tǒng)的研發(fā) 基于VS2010+ArcEngine開發(fā)環(huán)境，在實際功能需求的要求下，，實現(xiàn)了跨斷層場地數(shù)據(jù)庫管理系統(tǒng)的設(shè)計，為用戶提供了友好的交互界面。 上述數(shù)據(jù)庫建立的突出特點： ①首次建立跨斷層基礎(chǔ)信息管理系統(tǒng)，對于提升斷層形變分析的深度和廣度、異常分析的科學(xué)性和準(zhǔn)確性具有很大幫助。 ②跨斷層場地數(shù)據(jù)庫與成熟的地理信息系統(tǒng)的有機(jī)結(jié)合。有利于整合地學(xué)及其相關(guān)專業(yè)的調(diào)查資料，增強(qiáng)了跨斷層場地數(shù)據(jù)庫的可用性；另外，也為其他專業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)庫的設(shè)計提供了參考。
[Abstract]:Earthquake prediction is still an exploratory research project , especially for medium , short - term or pre - earthquake prediction , which is far from practical . Some scholars have doubts about the realization of earthquake prediction , and have reservations about using administrative means to organize earthquake prediction .

The scientific premise of earthquake prediction is to know the physical process of earthquake inoculation and occurrence , including the abnormal change of physical and mechanical properties of earth medium . However , there are few factors affecting the genesis and the occurrence of earthquakes .

This paper deals with the problem of how to comprehensively utilize the fault deformation data to study the prediction of earthquake prediction under the existing conditions . In view of the multi - source of deformation anomaly in fault analysis , it is considered that the site basic information existing in the field basic information management and use of the northeast margin of Qinghai - Tibet block is incomplete , and the multi - system paper medium is stored , inconvenient to query and use ;
The fault monitoring data of the site is separated from the relevant basic geographic information and is not convenient for comprehensive analysis and so on . The method of establishing the foundation database of the cross - fault site is discussed , and the basic information management system of the cross - fault measurement site based on GIS is developed to improve the management , analysis and utilization of the cross - fault deformation monitoring information .

The main contents are as follows :

( 1 ) Collection and arrangement of basic data of cross - fault site

In addition to the basic information of fault and the original data of each period fault , the cross - fault site basic data includes site survey , geographical environment , topographic map , climate , temperature , site geological background , historical earthquakes around the site , and other basic information , and the possible factors of deformation anomaly and influence conditions and dynamics are studied in order to improve the scientific and accuracy of earthquake analysis and prediction .

( 2 ) Design of Cross - fault Site Database Model

The model is established on the basis of data . The data model includes the vector data model , the grid data model and the lost - grid integration model . Based on the analysis of the actual application requirement of the data of the cross - fault site and the related data specification , we chose the relational database as the base of the database construction theory , designed the cross - fault site database model , and optimized the database according to the actual situation , and improved the practicability of the cross - fault site database .

( 3 ) Establishment of cross - fault site database

according to the established database model , data processing and integration of the collected cross - fault site data are carried out , and an independent cross - fault site database is finally established .

( 4 ) Development of cross - fault site database management system

Based on VS2010 + ArcEngine development environment , under the requirement of practical function , the design of database management system of cross - fault site is realized , which provides friendly interactive interface for users .

The salient features of the above database are :

For the first time , a cross - fault basic information management system is established , which has great help for improving the depth and breadth of fault deformation analysis and the scientific nature and accuracy of anomaly analysis .

( 2 ) the organic combination of cross - fault site database and mature geographic information system .
In addition , reference is provided for the design of other professional databases .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西安科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：P208;P315.7;TP311.52

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