本文選題：畜牧業(yè) + 綜合區(qū)劃��； 參考：《內蒙古師范大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：本文以內蒙古自治區(qū)為研究區(qū)，選取內蒙古1990～2010年的畜牧業(yè)統(tǒng)計指標來確定畜牧業(yè)資源綜合區(qū)劃指標體系，計算畜牧業(yè)的資源豐度指數(shù)，并對各個指標進行分析評價，最后分析內蒙古畜牧業(yè)資源分布的空間特征；將選取內蒙古12個盟市的畜牧業(yè)資源綜合豐度值，結合內蒙古2010年的Landsat TM影像、氣候數(shù)據、DEM數(shù)據、土壤數(shù)據、水文數(shù)據、交通數(shù)據、居民地分布數(shù)據和行政區(qū)劃數(shù)據，主要利用ArcGIS9.3計算內蒙古畜牧業(yè)資源分布的畜牧業(yè)自然資源潛力系數(shù)和畜牧業(yè)社會經濟資源潛力系數(shù)，進而實現(xiàn)了內蒙古畜牧業(yè)資源分布空間化；將根據內蒙古畜牧業(yè)資源空間分布特征、畜牧業(yè)自然資源有效面積估算結果以及畜牧業(yè)綜合區(qū)劃原則對內蒙古畜牧業(yè)進行了綜合區(qū)劃；最后利用數(shù)列預測方法建立GM(1，1)模型對內蒙古12個盟市2011～2015年畜牧業(yè)產值進行預測。主要研究結果如下： （1）畜牧業(yè)資源系統(tǒng)是一個復雜的巨大系統(tǒng)，因此指標體系也是一套復雜的體系。指標選取時，考慮多方面的因素并且指標本身應具有明顯的農業(yè)意義。根據內蒙古畜牧業(yè)本身的特點并結合實地調查到得情況和資料收集情況，確定畜牧業(yè)資源綜合評價指標包括：自然資源、生態(tài)、經濟、社會效益、畜禽品種、畜產品等六個方面。 （2）內蒙古畜牧業(yè)資源綜合豐度指數(shù)在73.38～9.32之間，赤峰市畜牧業(yè)資源綜合豐度指數(shù)最高達78.38，烏海市畜牧業(yè)資源綜合豐度指數(shù)最低為9.32。內蒙古畜牧業(yè)資源綜合豐度指數(shù)＞60為好，畜牧業(yè)綜合豐度指數(shù)在此范圍的有赤峰市和通遼市，說明這兩個地區(qū)的畜牧業(yè)資源配合度較好。內蒙古畜牧業(yè)資源綜合豐度指數(shù)在40～60之間為中等，畜牧業(yè)綜合豐度指數(shù)在此范圍的有錫林郭勒盟、呼倫貝爾市、烏蘭察布市和鄂爾多斯市。內蒙古畜牧業(yè)資源綜合豐度指數(shù)＜40為較差，畜牧業(yè)綜合豐度指數(shù)在此范圍的有巴彥淖爾市、興安盟、呼和浩特市、包頭市、阿拉善盟和烏海市。 （3）根據內蒙古畜牧業(yè)自然條件、社會經濟因素和產業(yè)發(fā)展方向將全區(qū)劃分為三大區(qū)：第一區(qū)（Ⅰ）為東部畜禽、畜產品與飼草料供給區(qū)；第二區(qū)（Ⅱ）為中部畜產品交易集散中心；第三區(qū)（Ⅲ）為西部畜禽保護品種白絨山羊和雙峰駝生產基地。 （4）對2010～2015年內蒙古畜牧業(yè)產值進行預測。從預測結果來看，總體上內蒙古畜牧業(yè)產值都有增長趨勢。從2010～2015年呼和浩特市的畜牧業(yè)產值增長率最大18.69%，其次為包頭市17.50%，阿拉善盟畜牧業(yè)產值增長率最低。呼和浩特市和包頭市作為中部畜產品交易集散中心用有著獨特的區(qū)位、交通、資源優(yōu)勢未來幾年畜牧業(yè)有著較快的發(fā)展。東部畜禽、畜產品與飼草料供給區(qū)的畜牧業(yè)產值增長率為全區(qū)的42.33%，，中部畜產品交易集散中心的畜牧業(yè)產值增長率為全區(qū)的37.76%，西部畜禽保護品種白絨山羊和雙峰駝生產基地的畜牧業(yè)產值增長率為全區(qū)的19.91%。
[Abstract]:This paper takes Inner Mongolia Autonomous region as the research area, selects the animal husbandry statistical index of Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2010 to determine the index system of the comprehensive division of animal husbandry resources, calculates the resource abundance index of animal husbandry, and analyzes and evaluates each index. Finally, the spatial characteristics of animal husbandry resources distribution in Inner Mongolia are analyzed, and the comprehensive abundance values of animal husbandry resources in 12 Inner Mongolia cities are selected, combined with Landsat TM image, climate data, Dem data, soil data and hydrological data of Inner Mongolia in 2010. Traffic data, residential distribution data and administrative division data, ArcGIS9.3 is mainly used to calculate the natural resource potential coefficient of animal husbandry and the potential coefficient of social and economic resources of animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia. The spatial distribution of animal husbandry resources in Inner Mongolia will be realized according to the characteristics of the spatial distribution of animal husbandry resources in Inner Mongolia. The estimation results of the effective area of animal husbandry natural resources and the principle of comprehensive regionalization of animal husbandry were carried out for the comprehensive regionalization of animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia. Finally, the GM (1K1) model was established to predict the animal husbandry output value from 2011 to 2015 in 12 Mengcheng cities in Inner Mongolia by using the method of series prediction. The main results are as follows: (1) Animal husbandry resource system is a complex huge system, so the index system is also a complex system. When selecting indicators, many factors should be considered and the indicators themselves should have obvious agricultural significance. According to the characteristics of animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia and the situation of field investigation and data collection, it is determined that the comprehensive evaluation indexes of animal husbandry resources include: natural resources, ecology, economy, social benefits, livestock and poultry varieties. (2) the comprehensive abundance index of animal husbandry resources in Inner Mongolia is between 73.38 and 9.32, the highest comprehensive abundance index of animal husbandry resources in Chifeng is 78.38, and the comprehensive abundance index of animal husbandry resources in Wuhai is 9.32. The comprehensive abundance index of animal husbandry resources in Inner Mongolia is better than 60, and the comprehensive abundance index of animal husbandry in this range is Chifeng city and Tongliao city, which shows that the coordination degree of animal husbandry resources in these two areas is better. The comprehensive abundance index of animal husbandry resources in Inner Mongolia is moderate between 40 and 60. The comprehensive abundance index of animal husbandry in this range is Xilinguole League, Hulunbeir city, Wulanchabu city and Ordos city. The comprehensive abundance index of animal husbandry resources in Inner Mongolia is less than 40. The comprehensive abundance index of animal husbandry in this range includes Bayannur City, XingUNITA, Hohhot City, Baotou City, Alashan League and Wuhai City. (3) according to the natural conditions of Inner Mongolia animal husbandry, social and economic factors and industrial development direction, the whole region is divided into three regions: the first region (I) is the eastern region of livestock and poultry, livestock products and forage feed supply area; The second area (鈪

本文編號：2105048