大型泥石流堵河特征及預測模型研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-09 14:32
【摘要】：汶川地震后,由于地震誘發(fā)的山體崩塌、滑坡數量急劇增加,四川范圍內觸發(fā)了更多、更具威脅的大型泥石流災害,造成了極其嚴重的社會經濟損失。而由大型泥石流暴發(fā)后導致的堵河現象屢見不鮮,于山體滑坡形成的堵河事件不同的是泥石流形成的堵河事件具有突然爆發(fā)性的特點,相對具有更強的威脅。泥石流堵塞甚至堵斷主河所形成的的二次災害比泥石流本身所造成的危害跟要嚴重的多。比如震區(qū)2010年8月13日暴發(fā)的紅椿溝泥石流,2011年7月3日暴發(fā)的高家溝泥流,2013年7月10日暴發(fā)的草坡磨子溝泥石流等都對沿線公路及民居造成了重大損失。因此對開展研究區(qū)范圍內大型堵河泥石流的研究預測分析迫在眉睫。由于泥石流堵河機制的復雜性,導致前人對泥石流堵河的認識及理解還不夠系統完善;震后研究區(qū)內暴發(fā)的多次大型泥石流,為本文加深研究該類型泥石流提供了豐富的天然樣本。論文在收集閱讀大量前人研究成果、野外的詳細調查及大量室內復雜運算后,得出以下分析和探索:首先,通過對研究區(qū)野外的詳細調查及所收集的到相關資料的分析,對選取的23條大型堵河泥石流在空間及時間的分布進行討論;并且基于泥石流進入河道后形態(tài)情況,將泥石流堵河類型進行分類探討,并總結泥石流的堵河基本特征。其次,通過詳細分析所選取的3條典型泥石流溝發(fā)生的堵河事件,結合前人研究結果,歸納了泥石流堵塞河流的主要影響因素;從泥石流本身角度出發(fā),再通過統計分析研究區(qū)23條大型泥石流形成堵河現象的共同點,得出這些大型泥石流形成堵河的基本模式。再次,通過研究討論前人對泥石流沖出量的預測模型,并結合研究區(qū)實際情況,采用相關性分析確定相對高差、物源總量及流域面積作為泥石流沖出量的預測因子,并擬合泥石流沖出量的預測模型;另外,通過對基于沖出角和扇頂角的泥石流沖出距離模型和基于物源量的泥石流沖出距離預測模型的統計計算,分析其在研究區(qū)的適用性,并采用FLO-2D的數值模擬方法,對研究區(qū)高家溝及草坡磨子溝進行模擬對比分析,進一步研究大型堵河泥石流的沖出規(guī)模情況。最后,論文從泥石流本身的固有的特性和主河特性兩方面入手,選擇泥石流流量、容重及溝道縱比降,以及與泥石流相對應的河水流量、容重及河床縱比降作為堵河評價因子;基于所選評價因子,并利用matlab軟件采用非線性回歸的數學方法對研究區(qū)大型堵河泥石流進行統計分析,建立了大型泥石流堵河預測模型,來更好地有針對性的對大型堵河泥石流可能性及堵河程度進行預測,能夠為今后的泥石流后效應災害的預測及損失評估提供參考依據。
[Abstract]:After the Wenchuan earthquake, because of the earthquake induced landslides, the number of landslides increased sharply, Sichuan triggered more and more threatening large-scale debris flow disasters, resulting in extremely serious social and economic losses. However, the phenomenon of river shutoff caused by the large debris flow is common. The event of blocking the river formed by the landslide is different from that of the debris flow, which has the characteristics of sudden eruption, and has a stronger threat. The secondary disaster caused by blocking or even blocking the main river is much more serious than that caused by the debris flow itself. For example, the debris flow in Hongchun gully on August 13, 2010, the mud flow in Gaojiagou on July 3, 2011, and the debris flow in Mozigou in Caopo on July 10, 2013 have caused great losses to the roads and houses along the route. Therefore, it is urgent to study and forecast the large-scale debris flow in the study area. Because of the complexity of the mechanism of debris flow shutoff, the understanding and understanding of debris flow and river shutoff are not systematic enough. This paper provides abundant natural samples for further study of this type of debris flow. After collecting and reading a large number of previous research results, detailed field investigations and a large number of indoor complex operations, the paper draws the following analysis and exploration: first, through the detailed investigation of the field of the research area and the analysis of the relevant data collected, The spatial and temporal distribution of 23 large river shutoff debris flows were discussed, and the types of debris flow shutoff were classified and discussed based on the shape of debris flow after entering the river channel, and the basic characteristics of debris flow shutoff were summarized. Secondly, through the detailed analysis of three typical debris flow gullies in the selection of river shutoff events, combined with previous research results, summed up the main influencing factors of debris flow blocking rivers; from the point of view of debris flow itself, Based on the statistical analysis of 23 large debris flows in the study area, the basic model of the formation of these large debris flows is obtained. Thirdly, through studying and discussing the prediction model of debris flow volume, and combining the actual situation of the study area, using the correlation analysis to determine the relative height difference, the total amount of the source and the basin area as the prediction factors of the debris flow volume. In addition, through statistical calculation of debris flow flushing distance model based on flushing angle and fan top angle and debris flow flushing distance prediction model based on source quantity, the applicability of debris flow flushing distance prediction model in the study area is analyzed. The numerical simulation method of FLO-2D is used to simulate and contrast the Gaojiagou and Mozi gully in the study area to further study the scale of the large mud-rock flow plugging the river. Finally, starting with the inherent characteristics of debris flow and the characteristics of the main river, the paper selects the debris flow, bulk density and channel longitudinal ratio drop, and the corresponding river flow, bulk density and river bed longitudinal ratio drop as evaluation factors for river shutoff. Based on the selected evaluation factors and using matlab software to use nonlinear regression mathematical method to analyze the large debris flow in the study area, a prediction model of large debris flow is established. In order to predict the possibility and extent of large debris flow plugging, it can provide a reference for the prediction and loss assessment of post-debris flow effects in the future.
【學位授予單位】：成都理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P642.23
本文編號：2174382
[Abstract]:After the Wenchuan earthquake, because of the earthquake induced landslides, the number of landslides increased sharply, Sichuan triggered more and more threatening large-scale debris flow disasters, resulting in extremely serious social and economic losses. However, the phenomenon of river shutoff caused by the large debris flow is common. The event of blocking the river formed by the landslide is different from that of the debris flow, which has the characteristics of sudden eruption, and has a stronger threat. The secondary disaster caused by blocking or even blocking the main river is much more serious than that caused by the debris flow itself. For example, the debris flow in Hongchun gully on August 13, 2010, the mud flow in Gaojiagou on July 3, 2011, and the debris flow in Mozigou in Caopo on July 10, 2013 have caused great losses to the roads and houses along the route. Therefore, it is urgent to study and forecast the large-scale debris flow in the study area. Because of the complexity of the mechanism of debris flow shutoff, the understanding and understanding of debris flow and river shutoff are not systematic enough. This paper provides abundant natural samples for further study of this type of debris flow. After collecting and reading a large number of previous research results, detailed field investigations and a large number of indoor complex operations, the paper draws the following analysis and exploration: first, through the detailed investigation of the field of the research area and the analysis of the relevant data collected, The spatial and temporal distribution of 23 large river shutoff debris flows were discussed, and the types of debris flow shutoff were classified and discussed based on the shape of debris flow after entering the river channel, and the basic characteristics of debris flow shutoff were summarized. Secondly, through the detailed analysis of three typical debris flow gullies in the selection of river shutoff events, combined with previous research results, summed up the main influencing factors of debris flow blocking rivers; from the point of view of debris flow itself, Based on the statistical analysis of 23 large debris flows in the study area, the basic model of the formation of these large debris flows is obtained. Thirdly, through studying and discussing the prediction model of debris flow volume, and combining the actual situation of the study area, using the correlation analysis to determine the relative height difference, the total amount of the source and the basin area as the prediction factors of the debris flow volume. In addition, through statistical calculation of debris flow flushing distance model based on flushing angle and fan top angle and debris flow flushing distance prediction model based on source quantity, the applicability of debris flow flushing distance prediction model in the study area is analyzed. The numerical simulation method of FLO-2D is used to simulate and contrast the Gaojiagou and Mozi gully in the study area to further study the scale of the large mud-rock flow plugging the river. Finally, starting with the inherent characteristics of debris flow and the characteristics of the main river, the paper selects the debris flow, bulk density and channel longitudinal ratio drop, and the corresponding river flow, bulk density and river bed longitudinal ratio drop as evaluation factors for river shutoff. Based on the selected evaluation factors and using matlab software to use nonlinear regression mathematical method to analyze the large debris flow in the study area, a prediction model of large debris flow is established. In order to predict the possibility and extent of large debris flow plugging, it can provide a reference for the prediction and loss assessment of post-debris flow effects in the future.
【學位授予單位】：成都理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：P642.23
【參考文獻】
相關期刊論文 前2條
1 唐川;黃潤秋;黃達;張偉峰;;金沙江美姑河牛牛壩水電站庫區(qū)泥石流對工程影響分析[J];工程地質學報;2006年02期
2 郭志學,曹叔尤,劉興年,方鐸;泥石流堵江影響因素試驗研究[J];水利學報;2004年11期
，本文編號：2174382
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