本文選題：自回歸模型 + 灰色模型�。� 參考：《電子科技大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì),電子設(shè)備中80%的故障來自模擬電路,因此,模擬電路的故障預(yù)測研究成為提高電子設(shè)備可靠性的關(guān)鍵。在故障預(yù)測領(lǐng)域,基于數(shù)據(jù)驅(qū)動(dòng)的故障預(yù)測方法是一種使用較為廣泛的預(yù)測方法,主要是利用設(shè)備的仿真數(shù)據(jù)、故障注入數(shù)據(jù)等,通過數(shù)據(jù)分析和處理算法進(jìn)行趨勢預(yù)測。自回歸預(yù)測模型(AR)具有建模簡單、計(jì)算快捷的優(yōu)點(diǎn),灰色模型所需建模數(shù)據(jù)量少、預(yù)測精度高,基于上述原因,本文對故障預(yù)測軟件的總體設(shè)計(jì)及關(guān)鍵模塊實(shí)現(xiàn)做了深入研究,具體的研究工作有:1.預(yù)測軟件總體框架設(shè)計(jì)。將預(yù)測軟件劃分為故障預(yù)測、數(shù)據(jù)庫管理、界面服務(wù)、用戶權(quán)限管理四個(gè)功能模塊。在VC++6.0平臺(tái)下,對軟件中的數(shù)據(jù)流向進(jìn)行設(shè)計(jì),并以屬性表單和屬性頁完成功能模塊的集成。2.實(shí)現(xiàn)了基于數(shù)據(jù)驅(qū)動(dòng)的故障預(yù)測算法。故障預(yù)測算法是預(yù)測軟件的核心,本文根據(jù)自回歸預(yù)測模型、灰色預(yù)測模型以及粒子群優(yōu)化算法(particle swarm optimization,PSO)的建模步驟,完全采用C++標(biāo)準(zhǔn)庫函數(shù)進(jìn)行算法編程和接口設(shè)計(jì),沒有涉及到與MFC相關(guān)的函數(shù)庫,使得本文實(shí)現(xiàn)的預(yù)測算法的調(diào)用不局限于具體的操作系統(tǒng),增加了預(yù)測算法在不同操作系統(tǒng)之間的移植性以及不同環(huán)境中的復(fù)用性。3.實(shí)現(xiàn)了故障預(yù)測軟件平臺(tái)的開發(fā)。首先,按照第三范式的要求設(shè)計(jì)了服務(wù)器端數(shù)據(jù)庫,在軟件里面采用ADO的連接方式訪問數(shù)據(jù)庫,實(shí)現(xiàn)了對故障信息、預(yù)測結(jié)果等數(shù)據(jù)的存取;其次,采用面向?qū)ο蟮木幊趟枷雽Ω鱾�(gè)功能模塊所使用的方法和類進(jìn)行設(shè)計(jì)和封裝,整個(gè)軟件平臺(tái)的搭建基于MFC對話框的開發(fā)方式進(jìn)行,充分利用了MFC提供的控件以及Visio ActiveX圖形化開發(fā)控件,達(dá)到人機(jī)交互友好的目的。4.預(yù)測軟件的測試驗(yàn)證。以絕緣柵雙極晶體管(Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor,IGBT)實(shí)測數(shù)據(jù)以及Sallen-key模擬電路仿真數(shù)據(jù)為測試驗(yàn)證實(shí)例,通過將實(shí)際的電路剩余使用壽命(Remain Useful Lifetime,RUL)和軟件預(yù)測的RUL作比較,結(jié)果表明軟件對模擬電路的RUL具有很高的預(yù)測精度,可以為電路系統(tǒng)的健康管理提供實(shí)時(shí)可靠的理論依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:According to statistics, 80% of the faults in electronic equipment come from analog circuits. Therefore, the research on fault prediction of analog circuits becomes the key to improve the reliability of electronic devices. In the field of fault prediction, data-driven fault prediction method is a widely used prediction method, which mainly uses the simulation data of equipment, fault injection data and so on, and carries out trend prediction through data analysis and processing algorithm. The autoregressive prediction model (ARM) has the advantages of simple modeling, fast calculation, less modeling data and high prediction accuracy. Based on the above reasons, this paper makes a deep study on the overall design of the fault prediction software and the realization of the key modules. The specific research work is 1: 1. The overall framework design of prediction software. The prediction software is divided into four functional modules: fault prediction, database management, interface service and user authority management. In VC 6.0 platform, the data flow direction in the software is designed, and the function module integration. 2. 2 is completed by attribute form and attribute page. A fault prediction algorithm based on data drive is implemented. Fault prediction algorithm is the core of prediction software. According to the modeling steps of autoregressive prediction model, grey prediction model and particle swarm optimization algorithm, the C standard library function is used for programming and interface design. There is no MFC related function library, which makes the call of the prediction algorithm not limited to the specific operating system, and increases the portability of the prediction algorithm between different operating systems and the reusability of the prediction algorithm in different environments. The development of fault prediction software platform is realized. First of all, according to the requirements of the third normal form, the server database is designed. In the software, ADO connection is used to access the database, which realizes the access to fault information, prediction results and other data. The methods and classes used in each functional module are designed and encapsulated by object-oriented programming thought, and the whole software platform is built based on the development of MFC dialog box. It makes full use of the control provided by MFC and the Visio ActiveX graphic development control to achieve the purpose of friendly man-machine interaction. 4. Test and verify the prediction software. Taking insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor IGBT (Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor IGBT) and Sallen-key analog circuit simulation data as test examples, the residual service life of actual circuit is compared with Rul predicted by software. The results show that the software has a high prediction accuracy for the RUL of analog circuits and can provide a real time and reliable theoretical basis for the health management of circuit systems.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：電子科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TN710

【共引文獻(xiàn)】

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本文編號(hào)：1997979