大型風電項目風險評價及規(guī)避策略研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-03-07 09:50
【摘要】：在能源形勢日趨嚴峻、傳統(tǒng)能源日漸枯竭、環(huán)境污染日益嚴重的情況下,大力發(fā)展風電可再生清潔能源具有重要的經(jīng)濟意義和社會意義。許多國家把風電作為改善能源結(jié)構(gòu)、應(yīng)對氣候變化的重要選擇。近年來,我國風電裝機容量增長迅速,已取代美國成為世界第一風電大國。風電已經(jīng)成為中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的亮點,并具備主導世界市場的潛能,在未來幾年中國風力發(fā)電將迎來歷史上的建設(shè)高潮。風電行業(yè)蓬勃發(fā)展的同時,面臨的風險也不容小覷。對風電項目風險管理進行研究,能夠為提高風電項目管理的科學性和系統(tǒng)性,規(guī)避風險損失,提高社會和經(jīng)濟效益提供巨大保障。本文通過風險管理理論、風險識別、風險評價、風險規(guī)避策略等管理流程,對大型風電項目按照造價風險、全壽命周期各階段工作內(nèi)容面臨的風險兩條主線,進行了分析研究。從風險評價方法上,本文分別就基于蒙特卡洛的項目造價風險、基于模糊理論與專家意見的全壽命周期各階段工作內(nèi)容面臨的風險、基于動態(tài)盈虧平衡的經(jīng)濟性進行了相應(yīng)的風險評價,得出較為實際的評價結(jié)果。工程造價風險受風電機組購買價格影響最大,所以隨著風電機組國產(chǎn)化程度的提高以及產(chǎn)能的快速增長,主機設(shè)備的價格不斷下降,對降低單位千瓦。造價,控制工程造價風險起到很好的保障作用。在風電蓬勃發(fā)展的同時,對項目進行必要全壽命周期各階段工作內(nèi)容風險規(guī)避措施,有力減少了事故隱患,降低了風險發(fā)生的幾率和風險損失,保障了生產(chǎn)的安全運行、人員的人身安全,減小了經(jīng)濟損失。通過動態(tài)盈虧平衡的大型風電項目經(jīng)濟性評價得出的項目的盈虧平衡點的售電量及敏感因素影響程度,為該風電項目的市場生存能力提供了指標參考。
[Abstract]:With the increasingly severe energy situation, the depletion of traditional energy sources and the increasingly serious environmental pollution, it is of great economic and social significance to develop the renewable and clean energy of wind power. Many countries use wind power as an important alternative to addressing climate change by improving their energy structures. In recent years, the installed capacity of wind power in China has grown rapidly, and has replaced the United States as the world's largest wind power country. Wind power has become the bright spot of China's economic development, and has the potential to dominate the world market. In the next few years, wind power generation in China will usher in a historic climax of construction. Wind power industry is booming at the same time, the risks faced should not be underestimated. The research on risk management of wind power project can provide great guarantee for improving scientific and systematic management of wind power project, avoiding risk loss and improving social and economic benefits. Based on the risk management theory, risk identification, risk assessment, risk aversion strategy and other management processes, this paper analyzes and studies the risks faced by large-scale wind power projects in accordance with the cost risk and the work content of each stage of the whole life cycle. In terms of risk assessment method, this paper deals with the risks faced by the project cost risk based on Monte Carlo and the work content of each stage of life cycle based on fuzzy theory and expert opinion. Based on the dynamic profit and break-even economy, the corresponding risk evaluation is carried out, and the practical evaluation results are obtained. The project cost risk is most affected by the purchase price of wind turbine, so with the improvement of wind turbine localization and the rapid growth of production capacity, the price of mainframe equipment continues to decline, to reduce the unit kilowatt. Cost, control project cost risk plays a very good role in ensuring. With the vigorous development of wind power, the necessary risk avoidance measures for all phases of the life cycle of the project are carried out to effectively reduce the hidden dangers of accidents, reduce the probability of risk occurrence and risk loss, and ensure the safe operation of production. The personal safety of the personnel reduces the economic loss. Through the economic evaluation of large-scale wind power project with dynamic profit and break-even balance, the influence degree of electricity sales and sensitive factors on the profit-break-even point of the project is obtained, which provides an index reference for the market viability of the wind power project.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM614
本文編號：2436008
[Abstract]:With the increasingly severe energy situation, the depletion of traditional energy sources and the increasingly serious environmental pollution, it is of great economic and social significance to develop the renewable and clean energy of wind power. Many countries use wind power as an important alternative to addressing climate change by improving their energy structures. In recent years, the installed capacity of wind power in China has grown rapidly, and has replaced the United States as the world's largest wind power country. Wind power has become the bright spot of China's economic development, and has the potential to dominate the world market. In the next few years, wind power generation in China will usher in a historic climax of construction. Wind power industry is booming at the same time, the risks faced should not be underestimated. The research on risk management of wind power project can provide great guarantee for improving scientific and systematic management of wind power project, avoiding risk loss and improving social and economic benefits. Based on the risk management theory, risk identification, risk assessment, risk aversion strategy and other management processes, this paper analyzes and studies the risks faced by large-scale wind power projects in accordance with the cost risk and the work content of each stage of the whole life cycle. In terms of risk assessment method, this paper deals with the risks faced by the project cost risk based on Monte Carlo and the work content of each stage of life cycle based on fuzzy theory and expert opinion. Based on the dynamic profit and break-even economy, the corresponding risk evaluation is carried out, and the practical evaluation results are obtained. The project cost risk is most affected by the purchase price of wind turbine, so with the improvement of wind turbine localization and the rapid growth of production capacity, the price of mainframe equipment continues to decline, to reduce the unit kilowatt. Cost, control project cost risk plays a very good role in ensuring. With the vigorous development of wind power, the necessary risk avoidance measures for all phases of the life cycle of the project are carried out to effectively reduce the hidden dangers of accidents, reduce the probability of risk occurrence and risk loss, and ensure the safe operation of production. The personal safety of the personnel reduces the economic loss. Through the economic evaluation of large-scale wind power project with dynamic profit and break-even balance, the influence degree of electricity sales and sensitive factors on the profit-break-even point of the project is obtained, which provides an index reference for the market viability of the wind power project.
【學位授予單位】：華北電力大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM614
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