【摘要】：電力需求預(yù)測是電力系統(tǒng)優(yōu)化調(diào)度的基礎(chǔ),其預(yù)測精度的提高,對電力行業(yè)乃至整個國民經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展都具有重要的意義。安徽省目前處于經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展的重要時期,用電結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生很大變化,而安徽省電力需求除受到經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的影響之外,還受到其他外在因素的影響,如當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)的變化、氣象因素等,其中,氣象因素對短期電力需求的影響較顯著。而在以往的中長期電力需求預(yù)測中,氣象因素的作用并不能有效地體現(xiàn)出來。因此,研究氣象因素對電力需求的影響機理,建立合適的預(yù)測模型能夠進一步提高電力需求預(yù)測精度。 本文首先分析了安徽省1990年以來用電結(jié)構(gòu)、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的變化,定性分析了二者之間的關(guān)聯(lián)性,發(fā)現(xiàn)用電結(jié)構(gòu)很好地反映了目前安徽省經(jīng)濟發(fā)展及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的現(xiàn)狀。安徽省目前雖然正處于重工業(yè)化時期,但第二產(chǎn)業(yè)用電量效率有很大提升空間,相反,第三產(chǎn)業(yè)電力投入成本較大卻沒有相應(yīng)地增加產(chǎn)出比例,可見安徽省經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)有待進一步優(yōu)化調(diào)整,通過內(nèi)部升級以滿足低成本高效率的經(jīng)濟增長要求,經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化升級將會帶動電力行業(yè)用電效率的提升。其次,通過主成分分析確定了影響安徽省電力需求的主要因素,如宏觀經(jīng)濟形勢、居民生活水平、電價水平及氣候變化,由此確定了氣象因素對電力需求的影響作用不可忽視。再后,本文以氣溫為例重點剖析了安徽省氣象因素對電力需求的影響機制,得出結(jié)論是氣溫對用電量的影響是分級而言的,氣溫基數(shù)越高,單位氣溫升高會導(dǎo)致用電量增加越多。 根據(jù)描述性分析的結(jié)論,本文參照宏觀經(jīng)濟波動的研究方法,利用趨勢分解從全社會用電量中分離出氣象用電量和趨勢用電量。通過時間趨勢脫離法、季節(jié)調(diào)整法、H-P濾波分解法這三種趨勢分解方法結(jié)果的比較,本文選擇了季節(jié)調(diào)整法作為安徽省月度用電量數(shù)據(jù)的氣象用電分離方法。氣象用電量主要為氣象因素引起的用電量的短期波動,根據(jù)每月不同的氣象影響因素建立分月的氣象用電預(yù)測模型；而趨勢用電量是受經(jīng)濟因素影響的用電需求量,具有穩(wěn)定的增長趨勢,通過趨勢方程預(yù)測,二者合并得到的全社會用電量的預(yù)測模型。經(jīng)過驗證,該模型預(yù)測精度較高,由此說明氣象用電量分離方法在預(yù)測短期電力需求方面是有效可行的,可以作為中長期電力需求預(yù)測的輔助模型。 本文最后利用傳統(tǒng)的長期均衡模型預(yù)測方法對安徽省未來三年的電力需求情況進行了預(yù)測分析,經(jīng)數(shù)據(jù)驗證,預(yù)測效果較好。 本文結(jié)論顯示,安徽省目前已經(jīng)進入重工業(yè)時代的加速期,未來一段時期,安徽省電力需求仍會保持上漲趨勢,用電增速大于GDP增速的可能性較大,電力消費彈性系數(shù)從2013年開始將進入大于1的增長階段。加之目前“穩(wěn)增長、轉(zhuǎn)方式、調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)”的宏觀經(jīng)濟政策,安徽省電力消費增長將超前于經(jīng)濟增長,這也是促進安徽省加快產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整及技術(shù)升級步伐的信號。
[Abstract]:The power demand forecast is the basis of the power system optimization and scheduling, and the prediction accuracy is improved, and it is of great significance to the development of the power industry and the whole national economy. At present, Anhui province is in the important period of economic transformation and development, and the electric structure has changed greatly, and the power demand of Anhui province is affected by other factors, such as the change of the current economic structure, the meteorological factors and so on, in addition to the influence of economic development. The effect of meteorological factors on short-term power demand is significant. In the past long-and medium-term power demand forecast, the role of meteorological factors can not be reflected effectively. Therefore, the influence mechanism of the meteorological factors on the power demand is studied, and a suitable prediction model can be established to further improve the power demand forecasting precision. This paper first analyzes the change of the electric structure and the industrial structure since 1990 in Anhui province, and analyzes the relationship between the two. It is found that the structure of the electric power has well reflected the present economic development and the present industrial structure of Anhui Province. In Anhui province, although it is in the period of heavy industrialization, the electricity consumption efficiency of the second industry is greatly improved. On the contrary, the cost of the third industry's power input is relatively large, and the output ratio is not increased accordingly, and the economic structure of Anhui Province is to be further optimized. In addition, through the internal upgrade to meet the economic growth requirements of low cost and high efficiency, the optimization and upgrading of the economic structure will drive the power utilization efficiency of the power industry Then, the main factors, such as the macro-economic situation, the living standard of the residents, the electricity price level and the climate change, are determined by the principal component analysis, and the effect of the meteorological factors on the power demand is determined. It is concluded that the effect of the temperature on the electricity consumption is the classification, the higher the temperature base, the higher the air temperature, and the higher the electricity consumption. According to the conclusions of the descriptive analysis, this paper, referring to the research method of macro-economic fluctuation, uses the trend decomposition to separate the meteorological power consumption and the trend from the total social electricity consumption. Based on the comparison of the results of the three trend decomposition methods, the time trend separation method, the seasonal adjustment method and the H-P filter decomposition method, the seasonal adjustment method is selected as the meteorological power of the monthly electricity consumption data in Anhui province. The meteorological power consumption is mainly the short-term fluctuation of the electricity consumption caused by the meteorological factors, and the monthly meteorological electricity forecast model is set up according to the different weather influence factors of each month; and the trend electricity consumption is the demand for electricity consumption which is influenced by the economic factors and has a stable increase. The long-term trend is predicted by the trend equation, and the combination of the two is the pre-set of the total social electricity consumption. The model is proved to be effective in predicting short-term power demand, and it can be used as an auxiliary to the long-and medium-term power demand forecast. In this paper, the traditional long-term equilibrium model is used to forecast the power demand of Anhui in the next three years. The results of this paper show that Anhui province has entered the accelerating period of heavy industry, and the demand of electricity in Anhui province is still rising in the coming period, and the growth rate of electricity is greater than that of GDP. The possibility of speed is large, and the elastic coefficient of electric consumption will start in 2013. In addition to the current 鈥淪table growth, rotation mode and modulation structure鈥，

本文編號：2426931