【摘要】：作為電力系統(tǒng)的樞紐設(shè)備，電力變壓器的運(yùn)行狀態(tài)直接關(guān)系到電網(wǎng)的安全與穩(wěn)定，在復(fù)雜多變的運(yùn)行環(huán)境下，針對變壓器進(jìn)行故障診斷和預(yù)測以掌握變壓器運(yùn)行狀態(tài)，進(jìn)而分析設(shè)備運(yùn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及制定針對性的檢修策略，在當(dāng)前電網(wǎng)設(shè)備迅速增加背景下的運(yùn)維管理具有重要指導(dǎo)意義。 電力變壓器本身是一個(gè)極其復(fù)雜的系統(tǒng)，針對當(dāng)前特征數(shù)據(jù)存在不確定性和模糊性難以有效分析，以及現(xiàn)有變壓器運(yùn)行狀態(tài)分析中的問題，提出了基于云理論和隱式半馬爾科夫模型的變壓器運(yùn)行狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移過程研究方法。針對現(xiàn)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估與檢修決策關(guān)聯(lián)不足，在基于設(shè)備自身運(yùn)行狀態(tài)及運(yùn)行環(huán)境下構(gòu)建了電力變壓器動態(tài)綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估方法，實(shí)現(xiàn)了變壓器風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)性量化�；跈z修決策指標(biāo)及效能分析，構(gòu)建了變壓器全壽命周期內(nèi)的固定檢修優(yōu)化策略以及基于動態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估的多維度多層面的檢修優(yōu)化策略。論文取得的主要成果如下： ①針對變壓器DGA數(shù)據(jù)存在模糊性、不確定性利用云模型進(jìn)行值域劃分及邊界數(shù)據(jù)的隸屬度判定，基于云理論對DGA數(shù)據(jù)訓(xùn)練，構(gòu)建了變壓器狀態(tài)觀測空間。基于變壓器運(yùn)行過程中狀態(tài)退化及DGA產(chǎn)生與發(fā)展規(guī)律，通過引入老化因子并采用多步長加權(quán)方法在馬氏鏈中引入歷史運(yùn)行狀態(tài)信息，構(gòu)建的加權(quán)隱式半馬爾可夫退化模型實(shí)現(xiàn)了變壓器運(yùn)行狀態(tài)的準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測。 ②利用變壓器運(yùn)行狀態(tài)轉(zhuǎn)移的退化隱式半馬爾科夫模型，對變壓器壽命周期內(nèi)的故障率進(jìn)行分析，分析不同運(yùn)行工況對變壓器風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響，并提取熱點(diǎn)溫升作為綜合反映變壓器運(yùn)行工況的參量對變壓器故障率修正；基于預(yù)想事故的分析，對變壓器不同風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模式下導(dǎo)致的本體損失和故障后導(dǎo)致停運(yùn)而產(chǎn)生的關(guān)聯(lián)系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)性量化求解。 ③對設(shè)備在全壽命周期內(nèi)的運(yùn)行規(guī)律進(jìn)行分析，根據(jù)不同檢修等級下設(shè)備狀態(tài)的變化、役齡回退以及對應(yīng)的收益，，以年費(fèi)用-效能最優(yōu)為目標(biāo)函數(shù)，制定全壽命周期的固定檢修計(jì)劃�；谧儔浩髯陨磉\(yùn)行狀態(tài)及運(yùn)行環(huán)境，針對可靠性、經(jīng)濟(jì)性及檢修資源進(jìn)行多維優(yōu)化，從變電站級、設(shè)備級、部件級對變壓器的檢修順序、檢修等級、檢修部位進(jìn)行決策，構(gòu)建了多維度多層面的變壓器檢修優(yōu)化策略。
[Abstract]:As the hub equipment of power system, the operation state of power transformer is directly related to the security and stability of power network. In the complex and changeable operating environment, fault diagnosis and prediction for transformer is carried out to master the operating state of transformer. Furthermore, it is of great significance to analyze the operational risk of the equipment and to formulate the relevant maintenance strategy, which is of great significance to the operation and maintenance management under the background of the rapid increase of the power network equipment. Power transformer itself is an extremely complex system. It is difficult to effectively analyze the uncertainty and fuzziness of the current characteristic data, as well as the existing problems in transformer operation state analysis. Based on cloud theory and implicit semi-Markov model, a study method of transformer operation state transition process is proposed. In view of the deficiency of the existing risk assessment and maintenance decision, a dynamic comprehensive risk assessment method for power transformers is constructed based on the equipment's own running state and operating environment, and the economic quantification of transformer risk is realized. Based on the maintenance decision index and efficiency analysis, the fixed maintenance optimization strategy and the multi-dimension and multi-level maintenance optimization strategy based on dynamic risk assessment are constructed. The main achievements of this paper are as follows: 1 in view of the fuzziness of transformer DGA data, uncertainty is divided by cloud model and membership degree of boundary data is judged, and DGA data is trained based on cloud theory. The transformer state observation space is constructed. Based on the rules of state degradation and DGA generation and development during transformer operation, the historical operation state information is introduced into Markov chain by introducing aging factor and multi-step weighted method. The weighted implicit semi-Markov degradation model realizes the accurate prediction of transformer operation state. (2) the degenerate implicit semi-Markov model of transformer operation state transition is used. The failure rate in the transformer life cycle is analyzed, and the influence of different operating conditions on the transformer risk is analyzed, and the hot spot temperature rise is extracted as the parameter reflecting the transformer operation condition comprehensively to correct the transformer failure rate. Based on the analysis of the accident, The related system risk caused by transformer's different risk modes and failure caused by outage is solved quantitatively and economically. 3 the operation rule of equipment in the whole life cycle is analyzed. According to the change of equipment condition under different maintenance grades, the retrogression of service age and the corresponding income, the fixed maintenance plan for the whole life cycle is formulated with the optimal annual cost and efficiency as the objective function. Based on the operation state and operation environment of transformer, the multi-dimensional optimization of reliability, economy and maintenance resources is carried out, and the maintenance order, maintenance grade and maintenance position of transformer are determined from substation level, equipment level and component level. A multi-dimensional and multi-level transformer maintenance optimization strategy is constructed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM41

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