【摘要】：近些年來，伴隨著新能源發(fā)電技術(shù)的大力發(fā)展，尤其是風(fēng)力發(fā)電技術(shù)得到了大規(guī)模應(yīng)用，而風(fēng)力發(fā)電因其自身的隨機(jī)特性對電網(wǎng)的安全穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行帶來了新的問題，特別是大規(guī)模的風(fēng)力發(fā)電場并網(wǎng)運(yùn)行以后，對電網(wǎng)的安全穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行造成的影響更加明顯，再加上電力系統(tǒng)自身具有的不確定性因素的影響，如發(fā)電機(jī)輸出功率的波動(dòng)、負(fù)荷功率的變化、線路故障等，對電力系統(tǒng)潮流計(jì)算帶來新的挑戰(zhàn)，普通的確定性潮流分析的思想和方法已經(jīng)不能滿足新的需求，考慮隨機(jī)因素影響的概率潮流計(jì)算分析方法得到了發(fā)展和應(yīng)用。 概率潮流計(jì)算把概率理論的思想和方法與電力系統(tǒng)的潮流計(jì)算相結(jié)合，應(yīng)用概率理論的方法來分析電力系統(tǒng)的潮流。普通的潮流計(jì)算得到的是電力系統(tǒng)電壓和功率的確定值，而概率潮流計(jì)算方法可以給出電力系統(tǒng)節(jié)點(diǎn)電壓和支路功率分布的概率統(tǒng)計(jì)特征，以概率統(tǒng)計(jì)特性的角度來分析節(jié)點(diǎn)電壓和支路功率在一定變化范圍內(nèi)的概率值以及期望值、方差等概率特征，這對于電力系統(tǒng)的規(guī)劃設(shè)計(jì)、穩(wěn)定性評估等具有重要意義。 通常在概率潮流計(jì)算時(shí)一般都假設(shè)系統(tǒng)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)不變，支路之間相互獨(dú)立，這樣處理雖然簡化了運(yùn)算，但是計(jì)算結(jié)果產(chǎn)生了一定的誤差。實(shí)際電力系統(tǒng)中由于各種不同因素的影響，，系統(tǒng)中的支路由于外部或自身的原因產(chǎn)生隨機(jī)開斷，造成網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)的改變；而且支路故障后對其他支路的潮流分布產(chǎn)生影響，表明支路相互之間存在一定的相關(guān)性，并不是相互獨(dú)立的。因此，在概率潮流計(jì)算時(shí)為了更加全面、準(zhǔn)確的反映實(shí)際電力系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行狀況，應(yīng)該考慮系統(tǒng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)的變化與支路之間存在的相關(guān)性因素。 本文針對目前大量風(fēng)力發(fā)電場并網(wǎng)運(yùn)行的實(shí)際情況，建立了風(fēng)力發(fā)電機(jī)的概率模型，在概率潮流算法的基礎(chǔ)上建立了綜合考慮系統(tǒng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)變化和支路之間相關(guān)性因素的概率潮流計(jì)算模型，應(yīng)用Matlab仿真軟件編寫程序，分析了網(wǎng)絡(luò)拓?fù)浣Y(jié)構(gòu)及支路之間相關(guān)性因素對電力系統(tǒng)節(jié)點(diǎn)電壓與支路功率的影響。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development of new energy generation technology, especially the large-scale application of wind power technology, wind power has brought new problems to the safe and stable operation of power grid because of its random characteristics. Especially after the large-scale wind farm is connected to the grid, the influence on the safe and stable operation of the power network is more obvious, plus the influence of the uncertain factors in the power system itself, such as the fluctuation of the output power of the generator. The change of load power, line fault and so on, bring new challenge to power flow calculation of power system. The common idea and method of deterministic power flow analysis can no longer meet the new demand. The probabilistic power flow analysis method considering the influence of random factors has been developed and applied. Probabilistic power flow calculation combines the idea and method of probabilistic theory with power flow calculation of power system, and applies the method of probabilistic theory to analyze power flow of power system. The common power flow calculation results are the definite values of the power system voltage and power, and the probabilistic power flow calculation method can give the probability and statistical characteristics of the power system node voltage and branch power distribution. In this paper, the probabilistic characteristics of node voltage and branch power in a certain range are analyzed from the point of view of probabilistic statistical characteristics, which is of great significance for the planning and design of power system and the evaluation of power system stability. It is generally assumed that the network topology of the system is invariant and the branches are independent of each other in the calculation of probabilistic power flow, which simplifies the operation, but results in certain errors. In the actual power system, due to the influence of various factors, the branch of the system is broken randomly because of the external or its own reasons, which results in the change of the network topology, and the power flow distribution of the other branches is affected after the branch failure. The results show that there is a certain correlation between branches and is not independent of each other. Therefore, in order to reflect the actual power system operation more comprehensively and accurately in the calculation of probabilistic power flow, the correlation between the network topology and the branch should be considered. In this paper, the probability model of wind power generator is established according to the actual situation that a large number of wind farms are connected to the grid. Based on the probabilistic power flow algorithm, the probabilistic power flow calculation model considering the network topology changes and the correlation between branches is established, and the program is compiled by Matlab simulation software. The influence of the network topology and the correlation between branches on the node voltage and branch power of power system is analyzed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TM744

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